Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball
That's a good point. NFL fans in general have NO idea how to evaluate QB play. Neither do most GMs it seems.
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The odds are against ANY quarterback, no matter how talented, how highly drafted, how highly touted they are.
In the last 10 years, there have been 44 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 or 2. QBs who stuck as decent long-term starters from that group:
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matt Stafford
Andy Dalton
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford
Andrew Luck
Derek Carr
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
You could maybe add Wentz and Goff if you wanted, I'd say the jury is still out on them.
If you restrict it to only the mythical 1st round QBs, you have 29 first round QBs in the last 10 years, and from them:
Ryan
Flacco
Stafford
Newton
Luck
It starts to very thin after that. (The most career yards by a 1st round QB in the last decade that wasn't a top 3 selection... Mark Sanchez. )
The point is, the success rate is pretty low no matter who you are. It's not to take anything away from Mahomes or Watson or anybody else. The odds are heavily against all of them.