I can tell you that me and my wife refuse to eat at Applebees precisely for the horrible service we recieved over two years ago. I ALWAYS tip 20% or better. Was I one of the cases where the server guessed wrong? If so then he missed out on an above average tip, and cost the company two customers for life. I fully expect that the response to this will be that it doesn't matter.. I'm only one customer.
I do agree with your point about not going out if you can't afford the tip, and lately we've done a lot of drive-thru, simply because it all adds up! Doesn't mean everyone feels this way though.
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