View Single Post
Old 06-21-2012, 10:20 PM   #2013
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $2261769
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
Hmm, the logic on the penalty was probably that the yards gained were greater than the yards of the penalty. But you're right in that it didn't account for the benefit of getting another down. We may need a tweak in the logic to account for that.

I'd never thought about it, but if you have a neutral zone/offsides penalty on a play where you gain more than 5 yards, but less than the first down, when do you take it? What's your opinion on the following scenarios?

Assume it's 1st or 2nd down and 10 and you get the offsides call after the play is run.

You gain 5 yards or less - You obviously take the penalty.
You gain 6 yards - take or decline?
You gain 7 yards - take or decline?
You gain 8 yards - take or decline?
You gain 9 yards - take or decline?
You gain 10 yards or more - You obviously decline the penalty

Now, if it's third down I think you always take the penalty if you didn't get the first down, so in your specific case it's straightforward. So it seems like we need a different logic for 1st and 2nd down compared to 3rd down, right?


With regard to the 4th down call, it looks like Ben was just trying to run out the clock and fumbled. Shades of Phillip Rivers against the Chiefs last year. It seems like the call was correct, but you just need to work on your C-QB exchange.
You are correct on the penalty. The 4th down call was a little different. Inside the 30, I had Provo in a run out the clock mode. Once they crossed the 30, they switched into hurry up mode, where they were willing to take a risk on going for it on 4th down. That combined with the dumb penalty call and the fumble by Roethlessberger were catastrophic.
Posts: 45,543
cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote