Those teams you mentioned - the Colts, Texans, Steelers and Bengals - have a huge advantage over the Chiefs. They aren't in year one of a new system installing a completely new offense, defense, etc.
We're an 8-8 team at best next year. 2014 we can start talking playoffs if Alex Smith isn't a disaster.
I also think the Chargers are a sleeper.
Alex Smith's current 9.8 YPC is one of the lowest marks in the NFL over the last 10 seasons. Only a few QBs have been worse:
Ryan Mallett (9.8), Derek Carr (9.4), Christian Ponder (9.8), Brady Quinn (9.8), Ryan Fitzpatrick (8.6), Brodie Croyle (9.7), Charlie Frye (9.7), Bruce Gradkowski (9.4), David Carr (9.2)