I looked at this a couple years ago and the odds of finding a franchise QB are about equal if you
a) draft a QB in the first round
b) use all you picks in rounds 2 through 7 on QBs.
Rain Man did an analysis a few weeks ago about how often the first QB taken in the draft turns out to be the best QB in the draft. More often than not, it does. That means General managers possess some level of skill in judging which QB is the best. Since we have the first pick, we are in the unique position of having our choice of QBs. If we wait, or trade down, the chances are we will miss out on the best QB in this year's crop.
I mean exactly what is the brain trust's plan to get a franchise QB if they don't take one first overall this year? Will that plan give the Chiefs better odds of getting a franchise QB than simply doing the obvious thing of taking one with the first overall pick?