[duncan_idaho]

Re: how the Royals got this bad, this fast...

The big edges the 13-15 Royals had were their defense, bullpen, and balance.

Even the past two years, the bullpen was still very good but not elite, and the defense remained stellar.

But this is no longer an elite defensive team. They are not an elite bullpen and in fact are bad.

And an offense that was average lost its two best hitters. Throw in regression from most of the SP spots, and it gets ugly in a hurry.

Re: the draft, they are paying for not doing well in the 2011 and 12 drafts, trading their successes out of the 13 and 14 drafts, and not supplementing with great talent out of Latin America.

They haven’t done well enough. Especially in the early part of this decade... but I still see a correction based on some of the struggles.

Saying they haven’t drafted a quality major league player starting with the Colon draft is wrong, though.

Whit Merrifield was in the 2010 draft. Scott Alexander was a good pick (who they threw away to shed salary on Soria, still miffed about that). Jason Adam was in it and has wandered back to Kc. He was a big deal overslot signing at the time who still might be a useful bullpen guy.

In 2011, Starling is a painful miss (though you still can’t argue much with the pick at the time). Jakob Junis was in that draft and, despite his recent wobbles, is still someone I think can be a solid 3/4 type. Other than that, you’re left with a big pile of nothing, plus Terrence Gore (useful during the playoff runs), Patrick Leonard (who was part of the Shields/Davis trade), and Brian Brickhouse (who, like Adam, is trying to resurrect his career now that he’s back with KC).

2012 is a big pile of shit. They got unlucky with Zimmer falling apart, but the rest of that draft is a disaster. Matt Strahm was in it, though, and is a quality major leaguer.

2013 was a successful draft. Dozier may still be a solid major league regular, and Manaea and Cody Reed were key parts of a World Series championship. There’s not much else left of it, other than Kevin McCarthy.

2014 has a huge success in Brandon Finnegan, who provides instant value - they may not make the playoffs or win the wild wildcard game without him - and also was the key piece of the Cueto deal. The rest of the draft has been disappointing - Scott Blewett, and Foster Griffin have done what most of the projectable Hs arms the Royals have taken did... not develop into very much. Chase Vallot has enormous swing and miss problems that will prevent him from being a good major league player despite prodigious raw power and great walk rates.

Beyond that, you’re getting into territory where it’s hard to expect much from HS players yet. But let’s go there anyway.

2015 has the Russell and Watson double-down disaster. A disaster so bad I think it forced an organizational draft approach. Staumont was also in this one. Solid 3B prospect Emmanuel Rivera was a later round pick. They also got Skoglund in this one.

2016, they didn’t have a first round pick. AJ Puckett was an athletic college arm with some upside and a nice departure from the HS approach. Since trades. Khalil Lee is a legit prospect with all star potential. Nicky Lopez and Richard Lovelady look like future above-average contributors. Considering this draft has no first round picks, it’s actually shows some real progress.

2017... Pratto and Melendez both have enormous potential and could be future stars (especially Melendez). Dan Tillo shows promise as a left handed starter, and Michael Gigliotti is another potential above-average starter (currently sitting out after an AcL year) from that group. Gigs is someone I think could really jump up next - he was the top hitter in the Cape Cod league in 2016 and fell after a disappointing junior season at his college, but he posted an .875 OpS with good steals totals in his debut pro season. He also is good enough defensively to stick in CF or be a plus LF. Tyler Zuber looks like a potential future bullpen standout, and toolsy college outfielder Brewer Hicklen is hitting for average and power so far as a pro.

2018, they obviously went heavy on college pitching. I think they got a lot of value and have a good combo of floor and upside. I wish they’d been able to get Milan Walla signed as a toolsy hitting prospect, but they got a lot of value.

Regardless, when you review what the Royals have done since the disastrous 2015 draft, there’s a clear shift in philosophy and they’re finding more success, especially with non premium picks.

Had the 2011-2015 drafts had players like Nicky Lopez or Khalil Lee or Melendez or some of these college pitchers sprinkled in, they’d be in a lot better shape in the present day.