[DJ's left nut]

For the record, the return the Phillies got for Giles was a top 50 arm, another top 70 arm, a high draft pick pitcher who is performing well in the minors out of college, a projectable power arm with some distance still to go and a young veteran who's something of a quad A player.

Look at the Cardinals system again and how do you put that one together? Again, it's pretty easy:

Weaver (Velazquez) - Flaherty (Appel)- Gallen (Eshelman) - Siejas (Auraz) - Gant (Oberholtzer).

It's not a perfect comparison because Giles was younger with another year of control, but he was also a hell of a lot less proven and that's what you're buying with these damn 'closer' trades anyway. But for the sake of argument lets say that the Rays decide to give a 'bulk' discount by being able to make one massive trade rather than having to find two different buyers. Let's also assume that Giles is more valuable than Colome. What might that net you?

I'll be optimistic and say that those 2 factors are so strong that they'll take the return from getting a top 50 arm and a top 75 arm (in addition to the rest of the haul) all the way down to getting zero top 100 arms but maybe a couple of top 150 guys (the remainder of the haul stays intact) . That's a pretty steep discount, no? We'll knock it from the Cards 2 and 3 arms to their 4 and 5, neither of whom are top 100 prospects. That's probably being optimstic and it's STILL Alcantara and Hudson.

So now your combined deal for Archer and Colome, if the last 18 months of the market means anything at all, is at LEAST:

Reyes, Kelly, Hudson, Alcantara, Gallen, Siejas, Gant and Woodman

And gents, I think I'm being kind. I don't think Reyes and Kelly is much better, if at all, than Jimenez and Cease given the injury and service time losses with Reyes. Meanwhile I think Archer's extra year of control gives him a fair amount more value on the market. And I don't think the Rays will have to sub out both Flaherty AND Weaver if they wanted to move Colome; I think they can/should be able to get at least one of those guys in the deal because if they moved him to someone that isn't the Cardinals, they could get a top 50 arm in return.

I think it's far more likely that you're looking at Reyes, Flaherty, Alcantara, Kelly, Gallen, Seijas, Woodman and Gant.

That's what the market for arms is right now. That's why it's so goddamn stupid that a team with NOTHING BUT ARMS in the entire friggen system is out there trying to acquire more. Bats are getting moved for cheap right now and the ****ing Cardinals are so tunnel-visioned that they're considering gutting their system for two guys in Archer and Colome that might make them 4 games better.

And hell, they'll probably get Longoria included in that deal so he can be 10% better than Gyorko (maybe) for the next several years at 3 times the cost. The fans will love it, though. They've had a hard on for that guy since he was actually good and cheap. Now that he's neither of those things, Mozeliak will strike.

This is your Mozlieak Cardinals. Just completely out of ideas.