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Originally Posted by KC_Connection
Depends whether they improve their defense (watch the last possession and you know they could be doing far better than they have if they expended the effort). That and luck considering it's a 68 team single elimination tournament.
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It's a tough row to hoe since the team is so goddamned thin, especially down low. But I'm with you, I wish they'd do a couple simple things to turn the heat up some. Like last night, when Lecomte would pick up the ball, if Mason would just go get in his face and make the pass more difficult, KU probably would have stolen at least one posession (see: last posession). I know you have to worry about the cut after he gets the ball passed, but it's not like Lecomte has some incredible length that Frank can't recover from. That's frustrating to watch, because that isn't going to expend a bunch of energy, and can jack up the other teams offense - especially against a team like Baylor.
I think KU can get a few minutes of rotation with Lightfoot and Lucas in there together where you can allow Lightfoot to be a pain in the ass in the full court like they did with Kevin Young. I don't know if Lightfoot is that heady of a player, but he seems to be able to make those opponent-frustrating hustle plays that Young used to pull in the half court. Maybe it is just 5 minutes of token pressure with one trap, but if you can get a possession out of it and not give up any transition points, it can turn out to be a big deal. And unfortunately, that's why Lightfoot and Lucas have to be in there together, someone has to be able to adequately defend the post in transition if the press is broken.
I think against the teams that aren't going to run hard on you, they need to crash the offensive boards harder. Mason is an excellent rebounder that would translate to the offensive side, Jackson and Lightfoot are grabbing a lot of OREB, but Svi and Vick have the length and athleticism to be grabbing more OREB than they are. And maybe it is such a thing as you let Vick and Svi get back on D and send everyone else to sell out on the OREB. If you look at the teams that drive us crazy when we lose to, it's not the teams that can run and gun, it's the grinders when we have an off night offensively. I think against those teams, you take chances on the transition defense to try to steal a couple possessions as those possessions could be the difference.
Jackson is doing a good job defending the 4. Far better than a freshman should be able to. Depending on the team, I think you can give him less help, similar to what they do with Lucas, and cover out shooters a little better. Obviously we can't do that to Montley, or probably even Wade or Owundu, but I think there are matchups that we can tweak a little bit to turn up the heat some.
Self is obviously schematically better than I am, but I wouldn't mind seeing some of those things come out in some games in case we need them in the tournament. I normally sit right with you and beat the effort drum, but as thin as this team is, it may not be in the cards. You'd like to see the effort early, and against crappy teams, run up a big lead, and sit the vital guys for 10 minutes a game, but it never seems to happen.
RE: winning it all. This might be a different year for us. It is often discussed in here that it takes good guard play in March to win in April, and Self relies too much on post production to win. Well, we can put that to the test. Obviously, guards can still lay eggs *cough*COLLINS*cough*, but this team is set up more to win like the teams that drive the guard conversation. Vick's shot has fallen off, but pretty much you have to defend this team for 50 feet. Plus we are getting production from several different guys. You'd like to see a little more from Svi and Vick, but you've got 3 starters that can get in the lane consistently, Mason is our guy that gets a bucket when you have to have one. I'm not sure you can lean on Lucas if the shots aren't falling, but this team is the anti-Self team that guys in here complain about needing guard play to win.
We'll see. It should be fun. I am far from expecting a F4 birth, but it is certainly possible with how this team is playing down the stretch. But looking around the different leagues, there really aren't any teams without big ass holes all over the place. Puke might be pretty formidable if Kazoo can right the ship and Jefferson gets back. Nova is playing decent ball, but looks underwhelming periodically, and back to back doesn't happen much. UNC has a lot of talent, but there is a decent probability Roy will Roy it up. Same with UK. UCLA looks pretty nasty but there isn't a lot out West so it's hard to tell. Who the **** knows how good Gonzaga is. An optimist could look at the landscape and say it's KU's to win. But I look at the roster, then I look at what happens when Lucas goes out, and holy shit. I've kind of shed the expectations and am just enjoying the good games.