Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud
I agree but if Erhringer becomes the player that they expect, the trade will have been a success.
Keep in mind, this is a 6'6, 310 technician that's started 51 games at three offensive line positions. Reid's had great luck in the past with Cincinnati players (Travis Kelce, Jason Kelce, Brent Celek and Trent Cole) so he's obviously happy with that particular program.
I couldn't help but think they'd take Westerman, McGovern or Boehm but I'm not going to criticize the choice, due to Reid's past, until if/when the player fails.
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You just kinda have to look at the history of 4th round picks and realize that the odds overwhelmingly suggest that the kid will pretty much be jack shit.
It's not until you sit down and look at the large numbers that you realize just how little 4th rounders and later tend to contribute. Yeah, you can find guys that do because there's a shitload of people picked in the 4th round and later but the percentages are staggering. You're talking about around 1 in 10 guys that become meaningful contributors. If you squint you could maybe get that to 1 in 5.
Do you look at Ehringer and see a better player than Pughsley? Do you see a guy that's likely to be one of the 5-6ish players taken in that round that truly matter?
"If X becomes the player we expect" is kinda the battle cry of the maligned general manager. It's kinda the 'if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle' of the NFL.
It's just been over the last couple of years that I really started looking at historical returns on late-round picks and realized that over large numbers, these guys really just rarely matter at all and when I see a guy that looks shockingly limited but was probably something of a coach's pick, I'm immediately very skeptical.