Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks
Strong and very encouraging points, DJLN. If he will take such a contract, then great.  |
There's a clear tier here that I don't think Smith approaches:
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/...ed/cornerback/
There are 3 guys that are approaching the rarified air you're talking about - Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis.
Peterson signed his immediately after his 3rd season and thus his age 23 season. Richard Sherman was the same thing and signed his for his age 25 season. Both of those guys are distinguishable from Smith in that they were so young when they signed that guaranteeing the entire amount made some sense - they're probably going to play out the entire deal and locking them for more guaranteed money also meant more SB that could reduce the cap numbers early while potentially paying dividends late as the cap went up. Moreover, they're both simply better players than Smith is.
Revis is a different animal in that his was signed for his age 29 season, like Smith's would be. But he was also seen as arguably the best CB of his generation and unlike Smith, he's an insane athlete who won't be completely ineffective after he loses a step. Smith can look for that kind of money, but he won't get it.
There's an enormous drop in guaranteed dollars after those 3 guys - from Revis's $39 million all the way down to Carr's $26.5. Even Carr's shouldn't count because his was done out of desperation after the Cowboys desperately needed to move space to stay under the cap after the NFL penalties. They converted some of his base to bonus to save the cap 3 years ago and now they're paying for it. If I'm a betting man, I'd say that Smith ends up with a contract that looks a lot like the first 'true' contract in that next tier and a fair comparable: Talib. He'll end up in that second tier of high-dollar CBs that are good but aren't franchise players.
Talib's deal shouldn't be completely cost prohibitive for Smith but long-term it may still not be a good one to have. If nothing else, saving money in 2016 by putting it towards a lower cost option could then be used as roll-over for Kelce/Poe when they look to re-sign.