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Old 12-22-2015, 09:07 PM   #227
DaFace DaFace is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlurking View Post
Would love to see Udvar Hazy expand and hang it from the ceiling.
That would be badass. I love that place.

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Shamelessly stolen from reddit, this is a nice summary of all the stuff that's in the works for 2016. It's missing a few things (like a space suit reveal), but it covers most of the big stuff.

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In any long-term program, the real value of an achievement along the way is the forward momentum it carries toward the next one, and the next, and the next. When I see SpaceX take another step forward, I'm not awed as much (though of course quite a lot) by the accomplishment itself so much as what further accomplishments it unlocks - to crest the local hill and see a larger context laid out beyond.

To the best of my knowledge and research, we (the interested public) have the following to look forward to in the near future (though they may occur in different orders):
  1. Ground test-fires of the recovered Falcon 9 first stage. Elon Musk said that it probably will not be launched again due to its historic significance, but we can fairly assume that it will be fired again on the ground to discover how its flight has impacted further operability. Hopefully the impressions gleaned from that data will be publicized.
  2. The next stage landing, of either sort (land or barge). With the Full Thrust version of the Merlin 1D engines, all flights - including high-energy ones to geosynchronous orbits - are capable of returning stages, so likely we will not have to wait long. The second will cement the first as the beginning of a long-term practical program rather than a purely experimental achievement. It will depend on what the tests of the first landed stage find whether the second one goes back up, which is probably a very optimistic scenario, but we can say it's at least a plausible outcome.
  3. The first barge-landed stage (may or may not be same achievement as #2). Elon has said that the center core of the Falcon Heavy will be going too fast at separation to return to launch site, so barge landing will be required once FH flights begin. No comment has been made on whether he intends to stick a barge landing before doing the FH maiden flight or is fine with using that flight as just another test, but neither case would be surprising.
  4. Falcon Heavy maiden flight, planned for 2016 (may be coincident with #3). FH will be the most powerful rocket in the world, and less powerful only than retired historical rockets. While not as powerful as Saturn V had been, FH is indeed a Moon rocket and (we can hope) will be used as such by someone, though that's beyond the "near future" time horizon.
    Each FH flight also has the benefit of simultaneously providing three stages for landing and potential reusability, so attempting to land three stages at roughly the same time (separated only by minutes) will be another highlight of the maiden flight. As far as I've seen, it hasn't been made clear if any of the stages from an FH might be reused in single-core launches, but that's a question worth watching out for.
  5. Launch of BEAM to ISS. One area of the space industry that SpaceX has chosen not to enter (yet) is destinations and habitats, which is an area that Bigelow Aerospace has been specializing in since its inception. As a developer of inflatable habitats, which can be used either in orbit or on planetary surfaces, Bigelow is more or less unchallenged in this arena, so its success is arguably in the same ballpark of importance as SpaceX's - albeit less urgent. However, because Bigelow's business is so speculative, institutional investors have not shown the same degree of faith in its prospects that they have with SpaceX, and its founder - Robert Bigelow - does not have a large enough personal fortune to push the company forward alone. Enter NASA, with a contract to deploy an experimental inflatable module to the International Space Station called "BEAM" - Bigelow Expandable Activity Module. Once BEAM is deployed and, hopefully, successful, that will provide a measure of confidence in Bigelow's technology that may yield greater investment and accelerated timelines for the company, which will in turn drive more business to SpaceX in order to exploit Bigelow's technology. Bigelow has a contract to launch BEAM on a cargo Dragon flight.
  6. Uncrewed orbital test flight of Dragon 2. Although it seems counter-intuitive, SpaceX intends to launch an uncrewed Dragon 2 (or V2, or Crew Dragon, ugh) into orbit before doing an in-flight abort test that should technically be much simpler and cheaper. But I'm not complaining - it means we will get to see the spacecraft and rocket launch in its full glory all the sooner, and watch its in-space maneuvers. However, it will land under parachutes in the ocean: Propulsive landing via the SuperDraco thrusters is farther out in the future.
  7. Dragon 2 in-flight abort test. The final uncrewed test flight of Dragon 2 will give us a glimpse of the futuristic spacecraft in flight atop a smaller, modified rocket, at which point it will eject itself at or around the most inconvenient possible moment (Max Q, or maximum dynamic pressure) to demonstrate the robustness of its abort capability.
  8. Publication of preliminary Mars Colonial Transporter and BFR concepts. This is the item that will no doubt set /r/spacex on fire when it happens, despite being mostly a public relations gimme rather than an achievement in itself. SpaceX has the information whether the public knows about it or not, but being clued in on what they've got in mind will be a huge shot of inspirational adrenaline.
  9. Reused stage. (Unplanned, but maybe could happen.) If the tests of the first few returned stages show minimal damage, it is perhaps conceivable - if a high enough flight rate is achieved - that a stage approved for reuse could end up flying again in 2016. If serious enough discounts are offered, maybe it could even jump the line and be moved up to a quick relaunch, since rapidity of reuse is a major part of the program's goals.

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Now with horizontal accuracy and more detail:


Last edited by DaFace; 12-23-2015 at 02:05 PM..
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