Poor Walter - still doesn't like the Chiefs.
Even when he says the Ravens have no chance, he still has to point out all the flaws in our "overrated" team.
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Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-9)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Chiefs -6.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens made some news Monday by signing Ryan Mallett, who agreed to a contract that allows for 14 missed practices because of broken alarms. It was quite the deal for Mallett, who won't have to worry about being late very often.
In all seriousness, the Mallett addition was first seen as a sign that Matt Schaub wouldn't be available for this contest, but Baltimore simply wanted Mallett to groom him as a backup of the future. It'll be either Schaub or Jimmy Clausen in this matchup, which means pick-sixes or checkdowns. It won't matter very much against a ferocious Kansas City defense that has clamped down on bad offenses quite often recently. Tamba Hali and the emerging Dee Ford are going to completely disrupt Baltimore's offensive rhythm.
The Ravens' only hope is to get the ball early and often to Buck Allen. Wait, I just realized how dumb that sounded. Scratch that, Baltimore has no hope. The Chiefs are tied for eighth versus the run in terms of YPC, and over the past month, they've surrendered just 3.13 YPC.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE:The Ravens have a well-documented liability on this side of the ball. Their secondary has been in shambles all year, and a lacking pass rush doesn't help matters. However, this might not be the worst matchup for them because Alex Smith doesn't have a habit of connecting on deep passes downfield. In fact, Smith was intercepted on a long try to Jeremy Maclin against the Chargers, as his pass was predictably underthrown.
Smith will have some success dinking and dunking, and he'll also pick up some first downs with his legs. However, there is some concern in this regard, as Baltimore defends tight ends extremely well. Smith may not be able to connect with Travis Kelce all that much, which could force some punts.
The Chiefs, of course, will attempt to establish the run. They may not have Spencer Ware, but that's fine because Charcandrick West can handle the workload on his own. Having said that, West may not have the success that most anticipate. Remember when I said the Chiefs were tied for eighth against the rush? The team they're tied with is Baltimore.
RECAP: The Ravens are another team that will be looking to get back to basics following an embarrassing loss. It's a fair point to wonder if they can actually do that, given the number of injuries they've sustained, but there's no question that they'll be battling a team far worse than Seattle this week. That'll give Baltimore a chance to hang around, and it's worth noting that before the Seattle contest, the Ravens hadn't lost by more than eight points to anyone all year.
As for the Chiefs, they're a very overrated team right now. They could've easily lost their previous two games, and I don't think they'll be completely focused here. Thus, I'm picking Baltimore, but I can't say I have much confidence in the selection; I don't really feel like wagering any money on either Clausen or Schaub unless it's against another bad team (like the Dolphins back in Week 13.)
WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is falling a bit to -7 -115 or -120, indicating that there's sharp money on Baltimore. It's too early to say for sure, but there's no way the pros will be on Kansas City. This line is too large.
The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
I don't think the Ravens will have Kansas City's full attention. They'll be looking to get things right following a blowout loss.
The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Everyone is betting the Chiefs, of course.
• Percentage of money on Kansas City: 82% (5,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
• John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS following a loss of 10+.
• Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5.
• Opening Total: 43.
• Weather: .
Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 16, Ravens 10
Ravens +7.5 (0 Units)
Under 41.5 (0 Units)
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