Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Looks like they are referring to baseball prospectus. Their model does not like the Royals and think they "should" have been a .489 team with a losing record. However, the wins we have in the bank are non-refundable and we have a 5.5 game lead, so even if their model thinks we aren't really this good, we're so far ahead that we have a 76.6% chance of making the playoffs anyway. The fangraphs model also doesn't like us and begrudgingly gives us a 76.8% chance.
However, fangraphs has an alternate model (under "season to date") where there are no preconceived notions and it just looks at your 2015 stats and presumes you are every bit as good or bad as those stats say you are, with no weight given to preseason projections. THAT model says the Royals have a 86% chance of making the playoffs, a 19.6% chance of defending their AL championship, and a 9.3% chance of winning the world series.
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Poor Fangraphs.
Basically everything the Royals are doing flies in the face of the Fangraphs models.
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