[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

You guys are getting so technical you are starting to miss the bigger picture. Whether a guy is picked in the 1st round or 2 picks out of the 1st round is somewhat irrelevant. Whether a team drafts a QB or gets a top free agent like Denver did, is somewhat irrelevant.

The point is, is you are one of the 20 teams that doesn't have a top QB, it is imperative to seek one, and the best method of seeking one is to pick the best prospect you can identify as high in the draft as possible when you get an opportunity to do so.

There are no givens, and there are always exceptions such as Russell Wilson being taken in the 3rd round. Such people usually have some warts (Wilson is very short) that cause GMs to fall back on conventional wisdom rather than just evaluate the talent on his college tape. So it happens that a quality QB falls in the draft.

The reason it GENERALLY take a 1st round draft pick to acquire a top young QB prospect out of college, is because the collective evaluation of the NFL community tends to do a pretty good job of culling the top raw material from the rest. But the factors that go into becoming a successful NFL QB, let along a top QB, are so varied, that it is like trying to predict the weather a month from now. There are too many intangible variables once the QB prospect is on the team and being coached.

Does the young QB have adequate coaching? Are the coaches really committed to developing the young QB above all else?

You would think this would be an obvious "yes". It always baffled me how the 49ers could take Alex Smith as the top pick in the draft, showing obvious faith in his ability to be an elite QB, and give him a $50 million contract -- and then NEGLECT his early development. How on God's green earth is this possible? But it happened?

Some young QBs get eaten up because the GM never invests in offensive line protection and the young QB never gets to practice his craft under ideal conditions while he is developing. He is just running for his life back there.

Or a GM fails to get good receivers for the QB to work with, so the QB fails over and over and the coaches attribute the failure to the young QB, not the poor receivers.

Some just have bad luck and get injured over and over like Bradford. They will give up on him.

There are many factors that are needed for a young QB to become a top QB. He needs the right physical and mental attributes and drive and coach ability and commitment, right out of the gate. He needs smart, wise and committed coaches who won't cheat him on development or short cut his development to "win now", which never works anyway. He needs a strong enough supporting cast in line play and receivers and a running game, to let him execute the offense as the coaches envision.

But all of this starts with the right raw material for a QB prospect. And far and away the best odds of obtaining that raw material is to draft your own QB as high in the 1st round as is necessary to capture him. It is not a be all and end all, but it is the start NEEDED to have a franchise QB.

Exactly.