Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man
The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck.
Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season.
The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing.
So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being:
Talent - 60%
Luck as it relates to injuries - 25%
Luck as it relates to play execution - 15%
I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that.
|
Over the course of a season talent wins out enough times that the good teams usually have a good record and vice versa. However in any individual game luck plays an absolutely critical factor.
The playoffs in particular are a real crapshoot. The closer the teams become in terms of talent the more the outcome is determined by chance. We see this every year.
EDIT: And I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that. Its fun to have varied outcomes. That's the excitement of a single elimination playoff system. It would be boring to crown the best team using statistics such as DVOA or something like that. But the role played by variance in a single 60 minute contest has to be acknowledged.