Seattle will win the Super Bowl. 24-13
 

Reasoning?

The Patriots excel moving the ball via the short passing game. The Seahawks are the absolute best team I've ever seen at shutting down the short passing game. It's a nightmare matchup for New England's offense. The Patriots are really going to struggle to pick up 1st downs and the only thing Seattle struggles with (TE / seem routes) they'll have an entire two weeks to find an answer to Gronk (NE only advantage).

Much like last year's Super Bowl, Seattle just represents a terrible matchup for Tom Brady. This isn't a bash on Brady, Seattle is just flat out ELITE against this type of offense.

I have this game as not being all that close. 24-13. Russell Wilson Super Bowl MVP.

Remember, you heard it here first. Brady will "struggle", but there is nothing he can really do about it. New England wasn't built to be successful against this type of defense. They struggled with Rodgers (to an extent) because Rodgers relies on extending plays and hitting big plays (something Seattle had to respect) leaving the middle of the field often wide open.

Against New England, they are going to dare Brady to beat them deep and Brady won't be able to do it. Not because Brady is lacking, but because his team isn't built to win via home run balls.

http://nesn.com/2014/10/scout-tom-br...rt-yardage-qb/

Seattle is going to get pounded.

Though, I will say...

I put my odds on MVP as even for Wilson and Lynch. I really think Seattle relies heavily on the read-option ... so it'll depend on who racks up the bigger plays between the two out of that set.

The real matchup will be Seattle's WRs against New England's CBs.

Awesome.

I spent an entire three paragraphs giving reasoning as to why I think Seattle will win ...

your rebuttal:

"seattle will get pounded."

Can you offer a bit of substance? Why do you think this? Where will New England exploit Seattle to "pound" them?

Seattle isnt the only team with a great defense, they're definitely going to struggle to put up points as well.

They struggled mightily against a far less talented Green Bay defense, needed a literal miracle eke out a win... at home.

The Seahawks will win this one pretty easily, I think.

I think it's vice versa.

Seattle could win this game and complete 0 passes to a WR. In fact, this is another reason why Seattle will win. New England has really been good on defense this year because Belichick finally trusts his corners. In this game? Seattle is going to feature the read-option, misdirection from said read-option, and play-action.

Russell will makes a handful of plays outside of the pocket where a receiver always inevitably breaks free and always peels off a huge gain. Whether it be an actual receiver, Luke Willson, Marshawn Lynch, etc...

The thing I can't get past is ... how is NE going to score against a team that excels at shutting down EXACTLY what New England excels at?

New England was a bit overrated this year. After getting stomped at KC, they pretty much had a ridiculously easy schedule where they simply took care of business the rest of the year. That's total props to them. They had a few good wins (Denver, @Indy, Detroit) but they have really been pretty unchallenged other than that.

Whereas Seattle, at 6-4, has had their back to the wall for a few months and just pulled out a total miracle ... so they are playing with total house money.

Just can't trick myself into thinking New England has a chance.

I picked Seattle 24-21 last year. So I was wrong about the score, but my reasoning was the same thing: How would Denver score against a team that shuts down ball control offenses so easily?

The OP points out the obvious worry. The Patriots don't have much of a deep threat, so if the Seahawks can shut down all the short stuff, they may well shut down the offense.

Assuming nothing weird (turnovers, huge special teams plays), I think it comes down to whether the Patriots can do as good a jbo shutting down Wilson/Lynch from RUNNING (I don't see Wilson beating the Pats with his arm) as the Seahawks defense does against the Patriots offense. That includes Blount, as the Seahawks front 4 isn't as good as last year.

If Blount CAN run, that opens up everything. Patriots are an excellent play action passing team, and if Seattle's LBs have to respect the run, the Pats chances get much better. If we run like we did against the Ravens, then we may be dead.

I think it will be close. I will go Patriots 20, Seattle 13.

the game was a total anomaly if you watch Seattle

the week before, against a hot Carolina defense, they moved the ball at will and Russell was perfect on 3rd down

Now, I think Belichick will be very prepared for the read-option, but I don't know what that means, exactly

Though, I will say, if New England DOES win ... the under is the lock of the century.

people are overreacting to one good game by Blount

it's quite obvious the Pats are just a nightmare for the Colts

3 straight games against the Colts and the Pats have ran for like 200 yards per game on average with 3.5 TD's on the ground per game, on average

LeGarrette Blount is not a good NFL running back.

He's not.

He's not even mediocre.

He's below replacement level.

New England is not going to beat Seattle on the ground. If they try and use that attack, they are going to get in a ton of 3rd and 6+ situations and I will tell you right now ... that's not how you beat Seattle.

Your OP was very insightful. Thsi one makes no sense. Look at the Patriots and Seahawks' schedules since week 4, when they both started to tear through the league, and tell me which one is easier. It's not even remotely close.

Seattle limped in, and the Pats steamrolled.

...if the Pats get a decent lead, it's over.

Agreed that 3rd and 6+ isn't where the Patriots want to be.

Agreed that Blount isn't exactly special. Remember, htough, that the Seahawks are an undersized defense. If the Patriots can be effective running the ball, then he can be a very helpful tool.

I can't see the Patriots doing what they did to the Ravens -- abandon the run and wing the ball endlessly -- and winning.

Key guy is Benett for the Seahawks. If he has a game like Justin Tuck did, then the Patriots are in big trouble. If the OLine holds up, lets Blount be reasonable effective, and gives Brady time, then the Patriots are in much better shape. That's why getting Stork back is HUGE.

and I realize you can run on Seattle, no doubt

but if New England is really going to bank on that ... they are going to be in trouble

because LeGarrette Blount is not the type of runner Seattle struggles with.