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-   -   Fight for a playoff spot, or lay down for a draft pick? (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=267004)

OnTheWarpath58 11-24-2012 09:19 AM

Fight for a playoff spot, or lay down for a draft pick?
 
Need some help figuring out this mathematical puzzle...

It's been a weird year in my money league. Had one of the best drafts in recent memory, but I'm sitting at 5-6 and currently 9th place in the league.

Top 6 go to the playoffs, points scored is the tiebreaker.

There are four teams currently at 7-4 and four teams currently at 6-5.

I'm within 33 points of two of the 6-5 teams, and hold a 27 point advantage over one of the 7-4 teams.

Obviously, to make the playoffs, I need to get to 7 wins. I have a winnable matchup this week, but play the best team in the league in the season finale.

Or, I could tank this week, and end up with no worse than the 4th overall pick in next year's draft - I'd likely end up with the 3rd overall pick.

I'll give more specifics in the next post. FWIW, here's my roster:

Palmer
Martin
Charles
AJ Green
Nelson
Daniels
Seahawks
Hartley

OnTheWarpath58 11-24-2012 09:30 AM

Here are the specifics: (first number listed in parenthesis is the point differential, letters are the teams remaining on the schedule, or their record)

*Scrub team has been mathematically eliminated

Team A: 7-4 (I'm behind 202) (Scrub team, me)

Team B: 7-4 (behind 76) (F, scrub team)

Team C: 7-4 (behind 68) (H, E)

Team D: 7-4 (I'm ahead 27) (scrub team, F)

Team E: 6-5 (behind 111) (G, C)

Team F: 6-5 (behind 66) (B, D)

Team G: 6-5 (behind 33) (E, scrub)

Team H: 6-5 (behind 26) (C, scrub)


I'm not seeing many scenarios in which I can get in.

Team E and Team G play each other, so the best they can finish is 7-6.

Team E has a legit chance to lose out.

Team D has a good chance of losing out, but would mean Team F gets to 7 wins.

And of course, I have to win my matchup over Team A in the finale.


Part of me wants to play this week out and see what happens, but it could cost me a spot next year. Picking 4th guarantees me an Elite QB or Foster - if I tank this week, I'm all but guaranteed the 3rd pick, which guarantees me an Elite QB.

Thoughts?

Chiefshrink 11-24-2012 09:52 AM

I studied your remaining schedules for everyone of your players and although at 5-6 just so happens everyone on your roster has a favorable to very favorable remaining schedule to rack up some serious points. AJ Green is the only one who has a relative tough schedule but you don't have to worry about him because he is just a flat out baller regardless of who he is going against.

You really have a legit shot to not only get in but even win some $$ IMHO. I'm not going to tell you what you should do BUT if it were me:shrug: Had a guy in my league last yr whose roster wasn't performing the first 4 weeks then his roster GOT HOT and went on a BIG 7 game run and damn near won the whole thing !!

Play to win !!:thumb:

A Salt Weapon 11-24-2012 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink (Post 9145784)
Play to win !!

herm edwards, Romeo Crennel, and scott pioli disapprove of this message.
Posted via Mobile Device

Ceej 11-24-2012 11:33 AM

I would never suggest "laying down" to get a better draft pick.

I'm sure you meant it in a different, more respectable way.

Play to win.

jspchief 11-24-2012 11:42 AM

If I caught wind of someone tanking, they wouldn't still be in my league to worry about next years pick. That's a bitch move.

OnTheWarpath58 11-24-2012 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jspchief (Post 9146044)
If I caught wind of someone tanking, they wouldn't still be in my league to worry about next years pick. That's a bitch move.

I've always felt this way as well, until a few years back when a team started his bench players to purposely lose, ensuring his buddy got into the playoffs, and I didn't. His explanation was that I had the best team in the league, and he didn't want to face me in the playoffs.

The league owners took a "it's your team, do what you want" attitude. Decided this level of "gamesmanship" was well within the rules.

CaliforniaChief 11-24-2012 02:08 PM

Your motivation is to ultimately better your team...you're taking a long-term look at things. That said, I'd always go for the win this year and deal with next year...next year.

OnTheWarpath58 11-24-2012 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief (Post 9146360)
Your motivation is to ultimately better your team...you're taking a long-term look at things. That said, I'd always go for the win this year and deal with next year...next year.

Exactly.

I don't look at FF as a one-season ordeal. I don't look at it primarily as entertainment either - I'm playing for the money.

I've been playing in this league for 8 years, and have cashed enough times that I'm well ahead in the game financially.

Since the league owners don't seem to have an issue with it, I have to at least consider what would help me for next year. And picking that early certainly helps. I can't remember the last season in which the winner didn't have one of the three elite QB's.

It's like playing poker. Why go all-in trying to draw to an inside straight when you can be patient and wait for a big pocket pair?

I'll be honest, part of my thinking is based on the shitty luck I've had this season. I drafted the best team by far, only to struggle all year. I've absolutely raped people in trades, only to get blown out the following weeks. I've had so many superstars on this roster at some point, and it just hasn't panned out.

This roster should be good enough to win the whole thing, as someone earlier said. It just doesn't look like the odds of even getting into the playoffs are very good at all. Gotta win out, and hope for a metric ****ton of help.

Ceej 11-24-2012 03:29 PM

Unless, someome's team is ridiculously stacked I've never understood the whole "I don't want to play him because his team is better" bullshit excuse.

I'm in a league now where I'm 3-8. My team has underachieved..but I still have a shot at the playoffs (need to win out, have another team lose out, etc). I could have traded some guys for future draft picks but I would much rather do everything in my possible power to make the playoffs. I would never, ever tank.

Plus, I'm a Chiefs fan. Fantasy football is all I got.

OnTheWarpath58 11-24-2012 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJizzles (Post 9146577)
Unless, someome's team is ridiculously stacked I've never understood the whole "I don't want to play him because his team is better" bullshit excuse.

I'm in a league now where I'm 3-8. My team has underachieved..but I still have a shot at the playoffs (need to win out, have another team lose out, etc). I could have traded some guys for future draft picks but I would much rather do everything in my possible power to make the playoffs. I would never, ever tank.

Plus, I'm a Chiefs fan. Fantasy football is all I got.

Goddamn, I'd like a spot in your league.

8 losses has a chance at the playoffs?

Christ, we have two 7-6 teams miss out every year due to tiebreakers.

Ceej 11-24-2012 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 (Post 9146591)
Goddamn, I'd like a spot in your league.

8 losses has a chance at the playoffs?

Christ, we have two 7-6 teams miss out every year due to tiebreakers.

I've mentioned the league in several threads. Mr. Plow is the commissioner. It's an IDP league. This is my fourth year and it has been a blast. I'm not quite sure how I'm still eligible for the playoffs. It's a long ****ing shot.

OnTheWarpath58 11-24-2012 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJizzles (Post 9146604)
I've mentioned the league in several threads. Mr. Plow is the commissioner. It's an IDP league. This is my fourth year and it has been a blast. I'm not quite sure how I'm still eligible for the playoffs. It's a long ****ing shot.

Well, good luck to you.

lostcause 11-24-2012 05:47 PM

imo, the object of playing is to win - whether you are playing for money or fun. I've found that if you are in the playoffs anything can happen. If I were you, I would play hard until you're eliminated. How would you feel if you tanked out of the playoffs on purpose then watched all your players catch fire and know you had a shot to win it all? Because you wanted to improve your position by a pick or two in a bad 2013 draft.

Setsuna 11-25-2012 09:23 AM

Is it a keeper league?


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