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-   -   Options for my draft... (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=275504)

The Bad Guy 08-22-2013 12:03 AM

Options for my draft...
 
I have a draft in 2 days and I've switched strategies about 10 times in the last day.

My keeper is Doug Martin. I had to announce my keeper before the draft order was set. To keep someone, you lose a first round pick.

I was hoping for a pick in the later part of the round. Nope. Of course I draw 1.

So I'm not picking until 2.12 and 3.1. I'm right now targeting Kaepernick (high QB scoring league) and a receiver like DeMariyus Thomas or Julio Jones.

Other keepers were: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, CJ Spiller, and AP.

Then again, due to the lack of RBs, I should be looking for a RB and QB with those 2 picks.

What strategy would you go with? QB/WR, QB/RB or RB/WR.

DaKCMan AP 08-22-2013 06:24 AM

My league has 14 teams and is very QB concentrated in the early round(s). Last year the first 5 picks were QBs and 7 went in round 1.

I think you go with QB & RB so that by end of rd 3 you have your QB and 2 RBs. WR is extremely deep.

I typically ignore TE until the mid-rounds but this year (drafting at the end of rd 1) my goal is to have a QB, 2 RBs, and a TE after 4 rounds (or QB/2RB/1WR/1TE after 5).

CanadianChief 08-22-2013 07:38 AM

What is a high scoring QB league??? 6pts for a TD?

I'd still wait on QB and go with a RB/WR combo. There's a lot of depth at QB this year and I'd be happy starting anyone on most top 12 rankings.

cabletech94 08-22-2013 07:48 AM

so in my money league we have 2 (starting) qbs. so the importance of a qb is pretty important.
we're now doing a keeper league as well, and my 2 previous qbs were brady and p manning.
while we don't "lose" a round if we keep one, i'm on the fence of which to keep.
thoughts, suggestions?

jspchief 08-22-2013 07:54 AM

I'd take a hard look at the scoring differential for the QBs in that range. The difference in getting the #6 QB vs the #10 QB might not be worth missing a WR or another starting RB.

DaKCMan AP 08-22-2013 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadianChief (Post 9905746)
What is a high scoring QB league??? 6pts for a TD?

I'd still wait on QB and go with a RB/WR combo. There's a lot of depth at QB this year and I'd be happy starting anyone on most top 12 rankings.

You can see the drop-off in point values from the top or top-2 QBs, RBs, and WRs.

Code:

Player        FPTS               
Brees, Drew*QB NO        423.8               
Rodgers, Aaron*QB GB        415.8        8       
Manning, Peyton*QB DEN        400        23.8        15.8
Newton, Cam*QB CAR*        369.6        54.2        46.2
Brady, Tom*QB NE*        365.8        58        50
Ryan, Matt*QB ATL        362.2        61.6        53.6
Stafford, MatthewQB DET        356.2        67.6        59.6
Griffin, Robert*QB WAS*        346.8        77        69
Luck, Andrew*QB IND        343.6        80.2        72.2
Romo, Tony*QB DAL        341.8        82        74
Kaepernick, ColinQB SF        330.2        93.6        85.6
Wilson, Russell*QB SEA*        319.6        104.2        96.2
Manning, Eli*QB NYG        317.8        106        98
Dalton, Andy*QB CIN        293.4        130.4        122.4

Code:

Player        FPTS               
Peterson, Adrian*RB MIN        293               
Foster, Arian*RB HOU*        247        46       
Martin, Doug*RB TB*        246        47        1
Lynch, Marshawn*RB SEA        231        62        16
Morris, Alfred*RB WAS        228        65        19
Rice, Ray*RB BAL        206        87        41
Spiller, C.J.*RB BUF        195        98        52
Charles, Jamaal*RB KC*        188        105        59
Ridley, Stevan*RB NE        187        106        60
Rich,, Trent*RB CLE        187        106        60
Gore, Frank*RB SF        180        113        67
Forte, Matt*RB CHI        162        131        85
Johnson, Chris*RB TEN        159        134        88
Bush, Reggie*RB DET        156        137        91
Greene, Shonn*RB TEN        151        142        96

Code:

Player        FPTS               
Johnson, Calvin*WR DET*        212               
Marshall, Brandon*WR CHI        209        3       
Bryant, Dez*WR DAL        200        12        9
Green, A.J.*WR CIN*        192        20        17
Thomas, DemarWR DEN        189        23        20
Jackson, Vincent*WR TB        180        32        29
Decker, Eric*WR DEN        176        36        33
Johnson, Andre*WR HOU        175        37        34
Jones, Julio*WR ATL        172        40        37
White, Roddy*WR ATL*        169        43        40
Colston, Marq*WR NO*        164        48        45
Welker, Wes*WR DEN*        162        50        47
Cruz, Victor*WR NYG*        161        51        48
Crabtree, MikeWR SF*        157        55        52
Jones, James*WR GB        155        57        54


Mr. Arrowhead 08-22-2013 08:26 AM

I am a big fan of getting value early in RBs and WRs, then getting a QB later in the draft like Andy Daulton or Matt Stafford

DaKCMan AP 08-22-2013 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Arrowhead (Post 9905807)
I am a big fan of getting value early in RBs and WRs, then getting a QB later in the draft like Andy Daulton or Matt Stafford

My league is weird. Last year Matt Stafford went in round 1. I typically have drafted a QB in rd 4 or 5 in that league. This year I'm at the bottom of rd 1 and I'm targeting QB/RB in those two picks.

FD 08-22-2013 09:00 AM

I would go RB/WR there and take a QB when your picks come up again. Some QB with value will fall, Ryan, Stafford, RG3. Worst case you end up with Romo, who I actually like a lot this year (for fantasy.)

This is only if you can get a good WR at 3.01, though, if there is a run and Jones and Thomas (and Marshall) are gone, I wouldn't reach for WR.

The Franchise 08-22-2013 09:16 AM

Last year I kept Victor Cruz and went WR/RB/WR/RB/QB. I'm not going to be able to do that this year. I'm keeping Doug Martin and depending on where I pick in the 1st....I might have to pick up another RB again. WR is deep as **** this year.

The Bad Guy 08-22-2013 09:17 AM

Here's the top 20 based on my league's scoring from last year:

Brees - 485.6
Rodgers - 452.6
Brady - 450.3
Peyton - 430.1
Ryan - 405.1
AP - 401.4
Calvin - 401.4
Romo - 386.9
Cam - 381.5
RGIII - 378.6
Brandon Marshall - 369.6
Stafford - 360.6
Luck - 354.5
Doug Martin - 338.6
Arian Foster - 337.1
Andre Johnson - 327.8
Russell Wilson - 327.6
Dez - 326.7
Demariyus Thomas - 326.4
AJ Green - 324.8

Old Dog 08-22-2013 09:51 AM

It's all about value based drafting IMO, and the difference between the #3 QB or RB to the #8 QB or RB last year was much larger than the WR dropoff.

That leads me to try and get WR later. I can almost always find a WR who is going to get a touch or two....RB notsomuch

sedated 08-22-2013 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old Dog (Post 9905934)
It's all about value based drafting IMO, and the difference between the #3 QB or RB to the #8 QB or RB last year was much larger than the WR dropoff.

That leads me to try and get WR later. I can almost always find a WR who is going to get a touch or two....RB notsomuch

On the other hand, RBs get hurt a lot more than QBs and WRs.

sedated 08-22-2013 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP (Post 9905772)
You can see the drop-off in point values from the top or top-2 QBs, RBs, and WRs.

So, the average point difference between each of the top players were:
QB - 9.28
RB - 9.46
WR - 3.80

To account for 1 player skewing the results (AP), here is the average with the top and bottom differences eliminated:
QB - 8.16
RB - 7.38
WR - 3.53

The Bad Guy 08-23-2013 09:16 PM

Ended up taking Peyton and Ridley with my back to back in the 2nd and 3rd. Receivers ended up being Colston, Garcon and Shorts. Receivers are shitty, but my backs should carry me.


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