Talking Draft Prospects
 

We've got perhaps the biggest, most consequential draft coming up for this franchise since 2008. The Chiefs have all seven of their picks, and will certainly be picking up an additional four in compensatory picks, one of which is assuredly a 3rd rounder.

As a result, it's important to familiarize ourselves with as much of this draft class as possible. I started a thread last offseason that discussed late rounders that was generally well liked and spurred tons of great conversation on all sorts of draft picks we normally wouldn't talk about, so I'm going to duplicate that idea this year, only discussing all talents, rather than just the mid- and lower-round ones.

The OP will be continually updated to show the talent I'm reviewing by position. Keep in mind as I list these players that I am generally listing their round projections, but it is not a strict big board, as I likely won't have a big board put together until May.

Let's start out with the obvious one:

QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon -- Football Outsiders' own football Bible summarizes the chances of an early round QB panning out thusly: the more games they've started, and the higher their career completion percentage, the better chance they're going to work out. By this measure alone, Mariota's almost certainly the best prospect we've seen in this league since Andrew Luck, and he's probably on par with RG3 as the fourth-best QB prospect we've seen in the last ten years (behind, in order: Luck, Eli, and Stafford). But the tape is what really elevates Mariota: he is truly a QB of the league's future. As more and more teams ape Chip Kelly's hurry up offense, Mariota comes tailor-made for that system. His decision making is precise and quick, his release is fast. He's super athletic (I'm guessing a 40 in the low 4.5s), and he's built sturdy at 6'4", 218 lbs. His arm can make any throw, and is always accurate. The comparison you'll hear all draft season is Colin Kaepernick, but even that sells Mariota short, as Mariota's ability to read defenses gives him a higher ceiling. He will be the #1 overall selection.

Love Mariota. Watching his film, he may not necessarily be forced to make NFL reads, he can definitely make the NFL throws. I'm not sure he has the ceiling Kaepernick does because he doesn't possess the same arm strength, I would say he's a safer bet to end up as an upper echelon QB year in and year out. I don't see him as being as frustratingly inconsistent as Kaep.

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His arm strength is more than adequate and he already has a superior feel in the passing game from the pocket that Kaepernick still lacks even though he's turning 27 this year. Mariota is a much better QB prospect than Kaepernick. Saying Kaepernick's ceiling is high because of his arm strength is like saying that Jamarcus Russell has a high ceiling.

All of the athleticism with a much better mind and feel for the position.

DE/DT Leonard Williams, USC -- Williams is listed at 6'4", 300 lbs, but he sure looks like he's 280 lbs. He carries a lot of weight in his frame, and as far as I know may even have room for more muscle. As it is, Williams does one thing, and he does it brilliantly: he shoots gaps. If you run a 1-gap defense, he is going to explode in your scheme. The more gap-shooting you do, the better he'll be. He's got a series of passrush moves, he's extremely fast off the ball, and he gets into the backfield in a hurry. His athleticism pops off the screen for a 300 lber; he honestly looks like he runs a 4.7. And while it's not his forte, Williams already has the look of a guy who can two-gap well, also, but he'll need some work there. Even though he hits very, very hard, I fear he has some slight motor issues -- he has all the talent of a Gerald McCoy, but lacks the general non-stop nastiness. I think his best fit is as a 3-tech in a hyper-aggressive 4-3, and if it weren't for occasional motor issues, I'd have him as a top five player. As of now, I'll keep him in the Top 15.

Lot's of talk about cutting Hali for cap space next year, any chance we could trade him instead? Thinking Hali might be worth a second round pick? ...would be great to get an additional 2nd & 3rd rounder.

So far I'm for Amari Cooper in the first and as much OL & DB help we can get.

Teams have historically had trouble trading players who are likely cap casualties.

It's entirely possible. I've repeatedly said the Falcons would give their left nut for him.

We could franchise him then trade him.

Either way we should have a lot of picks and flexibility next year. Would be great to bundle some of those picks to trade up and grab grab players in earlier rounds.

That's not how franchising works. You franchise players who are impending free agents.

Hali is under contract.

Why? If anything, Dorsey will benefit from having more ammunition to spend on his projects vs giving up multiple picks to trade up for a single boom or bust prospect.

Everyone knows that he's going to take the high ceiling measurables guy over the NFL ready kid. If he's going to focus on drafting those kinds of players, it's better to take a bunch of them vs just 1 or 2. It'll increase his odds of getting a quality starter in the draft.

OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M -- Of all the top-shelf tackles in this year's upcoming draft class, nobody has more to prove than Ogbuehi. He's had to wait for both Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews to move on for his chance to play LT (he played RG and RT before). As of now, there's not enough tape on Ogbuehi at LT to be definitive, but what we do know: Ogbuehi is a b-e-a-utiful talent on the left edge, showing peerless lateral agility and is somehow even better when getting to the next level.He gets off the ball so damn quickly, he's virtually impossible to beat around the edge (his kickslide's a bit choppy -- hard to complain considering how fast he gets out there). The biggest complaint coming into this season was that he lacks a mean streak and more of a finesse tackle. I think that's fair, but it matters less and less in today's NFL that craves more athleticism at tackle. Ogbuehi looks as promising as it gets, offers positional flexibility, and will surely destroy at the Combine with his long arms and great speed. If John Dorsey was in the market for a LT, he'd be on the shortlist.

Edit (11/18): How much do you like your coaching staff? Because I've watched Ogbuehi all year and I see a guy who has every tool you need, but he's struggled massively with those tools. It'll be interesting how he times at the Combine, and I still believe he's in the 1st round conversation as some team like the Chiefs believes they can turn him into a quality tackle with LT upside. I still think he could be in the conversation for the Chiefs.

So he's Eric Fisher of the SEC?

Yes, please.

I thought exactly of the Eric Fisher from Central Michigan, watching him play. Almost exactly.