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-   -   2013 Sandbox Simulations League 2 (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=273048)

patteeu 07-09-2013 12:40 PM

At the risk of giving away my secret gameplans, here's something that surprised me about my game. I don't have particularly strong receivers. In fact, in my estimation, my TE group is marginally better than my WR group. So in the gameplan, I increased my 2 TE formations at the expense of the other, more WR oriented formations. I expected to have better performance from the TEs in the passing game than I did. Here were my top 2 WR and 2 TE box scores:

Kevin Walter 7 rec / 126 yds / 0 TD
Santonio Holmes 11 rec / 122 yds / 1 TD

Anthony Fasano 2 rec / 22 yds / 0 TD
Scott Chandler 1 rec / 4 yds / 0 TD

TambaBerry 07-09-2013 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 9801038)
At the risk of giving away my secret gameplans, here's something that surprised me about my game. I don't have particularly strong receivers. In fact, in my estimation, my TE group is marginally better than my WR group. So in the gameplan, I increased my 2 TE formations at the expense of the other, more WR oriented formations. I expected to have better performance from the TEs in the passing game than I did. Here were my top 2 WR and 2 TE box scores:

Kevin Walter 7 rec / 126 yds / 0 TD
Santonio Holmes 11 rec / 122 yds / 1 TD

Anthony Fasano 2 rec / 22 yds / 0 TD
Scott Chandler 1 rec / 4 yds / 0 TD

It might just be matchups man, for instance you're are putting a strain on the defense having both receivers out there. It is pretty lopsided though.

TambaBerry 07-09-2013 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 9800570)
I remember that Aurora asked for a special consideration last year where they would never punt, and it looks like that setting is still on, even with a new owner. Probably shouldn't be.

Ya, I just noticed that they never punted one time. No wonder why I dominated them. I think I still would have won but thats weird.

Rain Man 07-09-2013 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tambaberry (Post 9801559)
Ya, I just noticed that they never punted one time. No wonder why I dominated them. I think I still would have won but thats weird.

There are some theoretical studies out there that say it's always a bad idea to punt, and the previous owner wanted to test that theory. It didn't seem to work very well, so I'm really curious now whether the theory works in real life or if it's got some flaw (or if our simulation can't account for what makes the theory true).

TambaBerry 07-09-2013 05:14 PM

Isn't the only reason its better to not punt is because you get 4 chances at a first down instead of just three?

Rain Man 07-09-2013 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tambaberry (Post 9801571)
Isn't the only reason its better to not punt is because you get 4 chances at a first down instead of just three?

Yeah. The theory is that the expected value of making it exceeds the opponent's expected value of failing. It didn't work well in last year's experiment, but that's only 16 sample points.

Hammock Parties 07-09-2013 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 9801038)
Santonio Holmes 11 rec / 122 yds / 1 TD

What really pisses me off is that you got 122 yards out of Santonio Holmes.

He's on my roster in league 1, but I'm not bothering to play him since he's only around 4 games this year, and was pretty crummy in real life.

But he got you 122 yards.

I could have used those 122 yards.

Now, of course, there's no way to predict whether he'd ever do that for me in a game, so...I may just leave him on the bench.

Ebolapox 07-09-2013 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tambaberry (Post 9801559)
Ya, I just noticed that they never punted one time. No wonder why I dominated them. I think I still would have won but thats weird.

are you ****ing kidding me? I had NO idea that was on.

SHENANIGANS! SHENANIGANS!

cdcox 07-09-2013 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ebolapox (Post 9801859)
are you ****ing kidding me? I had NO idea that was on.

SHENANIGANS! SHENANIGANS!

It's Rain Man's fault for not remembering that it was on sooner.

lostcause 07-09-2013 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 9801567)
There are some theoretical studies out there that say it's always a bad idea to punt, and the previous owner wanted to test that theory. It didn't seem to work very well, so I'm really curious now whether the theory works in real life or if it's got some flaw (or if our simulation can't account for what makes the theory true).

I think it's that coaches punt in many different situations when going for it is the better statistical option - not all. I don't think any model would say it's better to go for 4th and 99 on your own 1 over punting. But punting on 4th and 2 from midfield is probably a negative proposition compared to going for it. I think Haley subscribed to this thinking as well in all reality - thus his propensity to gamble on 4th down more often.

Hammock Parties 07-09-2013 08:22 PM

Can anyone flip the "no punt" switch?

It might be fun to do for a week once I've locked up a playoff spot.

patteeu 07-09-2013 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tambaberry (Post 9801391)
It might just be matchups man, for instance you're are putting a strain on the defense having both receivers out there. It is pretty lopsided though.

Yeah, I'm not going to worry about it. The results were good enough that I'll keep riding the same gameplan for a couple of weeks to see how it goes.

patteeu 07-09-2013 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Smith HATER (Post 9801736)
What really pisses me off is that you got 122 yards out of Santonio Holmes.

He's on my roster in league 1, but I'm not bothering to play him since he's only around 4 games this year, and was pretty crummy in real life.

But he got you 122 yards.

I could have used those 122 yards.

Now, of course, there's no way to predict whether he'd ever do that for me in a game, so...I may just leave him on the bench.

It's a testament to how bad my receiving corps is that Santonio Holmes is my #1 guy. Maybe it has something to do with having a decent QB (Matt Ryan) and a pretty good offensive line (Ryan Clady, Evan Mathis, Dan Koppen, Jon Asamoah, and William Beatty). :shrug:

trndobrd 07-10-2013 05:43 PM

How many players can be on a team's roster? Are we authorized a practice squad?

Hammock Parties 07-10-2013 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trndobrd (Post 9803915)
How many players can be on a team's roster? Are we authorized a practice squad?

Hope we get this in the future. There were several players in FA I wanted to grab to see if I could get a future return on them.

This would add a nice dimension to free agency and reward owners who do their research more.


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