The possibility of keeping Alex Smith.
 

Alright, let's get down to some nitty gritty here, folks.

What if Alex Smith is amazing in 2017? The Chiefs hand will be forced -- keep him. 2018 will be the final year of his contract and it's a $20m cap hit. Not unreasonable for a guy playing extremely well.

So, what would the Chiefs have to do?

First, we pretty much have the cap met RIGHT NOW, assuming we bring back absolutely no one who is a free agent. So our cap is royally ****ed.

The two most popular ideas right now are cutting DJ/Hali, or letting them both retire, or whatever. Cutting them saves us a combined $15m. We likely have DJ's replacements already on the roster, and Ford will be entering his contract year in 2018.

We can also cut (or trade) Allen Bailey if we want to elevate RNR to a starting slot. Trading Bailey saves us $8m (and nets us a draft pick or whatever). Cutting him saves us $6m.

If Eric Fisher has a really good 2017, maybe we just extend/restructure him at the end of the season. That would lower his cap hit in 2018 (right now it's slated for $14m).

I wouldn't touch Allen Bailey, but I'd cut DJ/Hali and extend/restructure Fisher. That allows us to keep Mr. Smith and have roughly $20m in cap space, $5m of which can go to our rookie class.

I think it's non-negotiable that we bring back Terrance Mitchell, but he shouldn't cost a ton. Bennie Logan might be a good idea -- although, again, we could just play RNR at the nose and be fine (which is what I would do if we kept Smith on the roster).

So my recommendation, keeping Alex rather than trading him:

1. cut/retire DJ
2. cut/retire Hali
3. restructure/extend Fisher
4. extend Terrance Mitchell
5. let basically all of our FAs walk: De'Anthony, Fulton, Logan, Sherman, Albert Wilson, Gaines, Colquitt
6. make a few choice re-signings (Santos, KPL, maybe Gaines?)

That'll leave us thin at DL, OL, and OLB -- which I hate. And the best draft pick we'll have in 2018 will be at the very bottom of the 2nd.

But hey, if your QB is balling out, who cares?

Food for thought.

If Mahomes is ready....then you have ZERO reason to keep Smith at $20 million for a season.

If he plays that well that you think about keeping him, two things

A. His trade value will never be higher. Someone would give you a first rounder

B. Restructure him and keep him

Basically the choice is between a Mahomes-led team that could have pretty incredible depth and awesome offensive weapons.

or

A Smith-led team off a hot-as-shit year for Smith with some depth issues along the trenches.

The second team above would have Smith, but would obviously be sacrificing some talent to keep him.

So you've got your scenario above or the following:

Trade Smith for draft capital and gain $17 million in cap space.
DJ and Hali retire freeing up cap space.
You wouldn't have to get rid of Bailey....and you would have enough space to re-sign Logan. That would keep the entire defensive line intact going into the next season.
You'd have the money to re-sign Mitchell if he's proven worthy of one.

With the missing draft picks this team has to be really careful about letting depth guys go.

Missing the first was a calculated decision, obviously.

You could argue that spending the 5th on Erving was a depth decision -- but meh.

The Chiefs traded their 7th away, but got two 7ths coming back due to King and Cooper, along with an additional 6th for Battle.

Not disagreeing with you, of course, just re-stating facts.

Dude, this team can truly be Super Bowl caliber, moreso than it is right now, if we trade Smith and let Hali/DJ go. We can do what you suggested there, PLUS make a splash in free agency somewhere.

But you're handing your Super Bowl caliber team over to a first time starter in Mahomes. And while I'm okay with that, I think it's also reasonable to trot Alex Smith out for another year if he keeps playing like he did yesterday.

Super Bowl caliber, with time. The Chiefs will have a couple things to sort out and expecting a first year starting QB to win it all is asking a whole lot.

Trading Alex after a career year would be the best move for the Chiefs, as keeping him would savage the depth.

The better the 2017, the more he'll be worth in trade, and all the more reason we should ship his ass out.

Alex Smith has absolutely no good reason to be on the roster in 2018 barring a horrific injury to Mahomes while he's on the bench

If I'm Smith....I don't want to be on the Chiefs after this year. He has to know that at the start of the season...his days are numbered. It would take one horrible game or one injury and he loses his job.

Y'know we say that....but would they?

I mean, we can just cross off the top 10, right? Nobody's giving up a top 10 pick for a 33 yr old QB with 1 year left on his deal so they can get the privilege of extending him into his decline years. Nobody would give up a top 10 for Cousins who's younger and has absolutely killed it the last 2 years.

So that leaves us with teams in the 11-30 range. Well most teams in that range are actually pretty good and have their QB situation well in hand for the next few years or have drafted someone relatively recently (The Texans, for instance, who now have Watson and traded next years 1st anyway).

Give me the 'someone'. You need a team on the cusp of competition who's going to be in the middle of the round and sees Alex Smith as someone that can get them to the next step.

For a 33 year old passer, that's just not going to exist. His window is too short; he fits an odd niche. I see one possibility out there - just one. Jacksonville. If Jacksonville can take all that talent on defense and turn in an 8-8 kind of season that has them drafting around 16 so they have to take a more raw long-term option at QB, perhaps they look at Smith as a guy that can stabilize the franchise while the young defense continues to gel. He can keep them all playing meaningful snaps while the young QB develops.

And I guess maybe Washington for similar reasons though if Cousins leaves the 'Skins should probably just tear it down and rebuild; I don't see a long-term core there.

Those both seem like serious long shots and that's assuming neither of them actually sign Kirk Cousins (wouldn't Jacksonville be a perfect spot for him?).

A second is probably the best we'll do. And that's assuming he puts up 3,800 and 25+.

I'm not even sure we'd get a 2nd for him. I'd take a 3rd and be happy with it.

It will take multiple horrible games or a severe injury.

If he goes off this year and they think that Mahomes is ready, the FO will likely try their best to trade him for 2nd round picks. Teams who would likely make the trade:

Jags
Texans (depending on how much/if Watson ends up sucking)
Cardinals (Palmer is likely done)
Jets
Bills

Think Smith could run Gruden's offense?

I don't think they really will let Cousins go unless he's demanding Stafford money.

Bills will have 2 firsts and a need...

That would be classic. ROFL

Screw the Bills twice.

Arizona is perfect for Alex in 2018.

Good defense, elite RB, elite QB coach. Palmer and afitzgerald are probably some after this year and I think they'd give us a 2nd.

Alex's $13 million saved can help us pay Logan and Mitchell.

The possibility of you ****ing off...

Sam ****ing Bradford, guys.

If Smith plays his best football this year, we'll get a first.

Bradford's younger, you say? Great, he gives you more years of shitty QB play.

Smith in his current situation and age is tailor-made for a team looking to rebuild through the QB position. He's tailor-made for a team that has a defense in place but no QB.

There's no reason why we can't trade him for a 1st if he plays his best football this year.

He'd have to really be playing well. I think Arians might do it if Palmer is done. But realistically, I think a 2nd plus is more likely.

You own another thing that would allow Alex's cap hit to come down in 2018?

Extending him.

***DUCKS***

Cousins may never sign a long-term deal with WAS.

The Chiefs would be ****ing idiots for burning two firsts for Mahomes if they did this.

Cannot extend him...that just pushes the cap hit down the road, and we will need that cap space to stay competitive and get Mahomes talent around him.

Alex costs too much against the cap next year. Chiefs cannot afford to keep him. It is that simple. Mahomes will be ready. Mahomes will start.

But that is next year. Let's just enjoy the ride this year and see where the river takes us.

Yeah if Smith doesn't regress right back to the Pittsburgh / Tennessee / Tampa Bay version of himself there's no way he doesn't get extended.

Get ****ing used to it.

Bullshit. Let him ball out all year. Then trade his ass.

You don't spend what the Chiefs spent to draft a QB and not play him.

^^^^ All day long.

They aren't keeping Alex.

Jesus

It's possible however it would have to be on a team friendly deal. Maybe something like what the Patriots or Broncos do so that the Chiefs have extra cap room and move the salary to under the table dealings. Since we now know that Clark is fully capable and willing of doing some shady things, maybe the Chiefs can do a little bit of "creative" accounting?

DJ is not getting cut. He might retire, but doubtful as long as he stays healthy. He is still one of the best in the NFL.

Trade Alex for picks and draft more weapons for Mahomes.

I can't for the life of me figure out why this forum is so hell bent on cutting DJ.

Hali makes sense. But DJ doesn't. The man is STILL playing at a high level and his salary isn't even that high. We have little depth behind him. It just doesn't make sense.

There were at least a couple of times where his age and injuries showed while he was trying to chase down a play. This might be his last season.

There were also a couple of plays where he shot the gap like classic DJ and blew the play up. How about that perfect pass break up in the end zone? DJ looks like DJ. Maybe he's lost a step, but even after losing a step he's still a premier ILB you'd be hard pressed to replace.

The play you are thinking of was a crossing route to Cooks. I wouldn't make much of it.

Any LB will get outrun by a receiver with 4.33 speed

Agree in large part. I think I'd be more on the side of "assuming he'll retire" than the Chiefs actually cutting him if he still wants to play.

I would like to see them be rid of Smith, Hali, DJ, and Colquitt after this year. It's time to move on.

Smith will get an extension (team friendly) and he will continue to run the offense. Mahomes will wait a couple years for his shot. It won't cost the Chiefs anything they aren't spending now to have two good quarterbacks. (Just in case something happens to one of them) The Chiefs have 3 years to get Mahomes on the field then they can sign him long term.

Andy's health may play a role in what happens to the roster in that time.

If Alex Smith clings to this team like a homesick abortion for too long, you run the risk of Brock Osweilering our 1st round QB.

If Alex starts for 3 seasons (good God, that's reeruned), then Mahomes' rookie deal is 1 year away from its option. That option is like 18 million. A hefty price. And he's looking at an extension beyond that. But he's not looking at that extension going, "I've been sitting and learning and getting better... here's what I'm worth." He's saying, "I'm a starting QB now. Pay me." The team has no information on him and whether he's the longterm money investment they should be making. They have to make a big gamble with his deal, because Mahomes and his agent won't accept anything less than market value for starting QBs.

Mike Glennon. Kirk Cousins. Matt Stafford. The expectation for payment isn't what it used to be. Guys are getting deals beyond what they've proven in the league.

I can ****ing see it now. Chiefs fans freaking the **** out that the team overpaid (because they will have... Mahomes had 0-1 years of starting experience prior to that point) or they get into a Kirk Cousins squabble and keep him year to year and being ****ing cheapskates.

All for WHAT, exactly? Alex ****ing SMITH? For two more years than he should be here?

WHY?

Why is keeping Alex Smith here for two years longer than he should be worth it? He'd be ****ing over the team longterm. What's so ****ing special about him that makes it worth it to invest all that money in a mediocre starter and a misappropriated backup, and then move on from the mediocre starter with an inexperienced QB that's going to need a huge payday?

More than likely, Alex is going to Alex the next game against the Eagles. Under 200 yards. MAYBE one passing TD. Perhaps a turnover, perhaps not. A lot of PSUs. Getting stalled in the red zone and taking field goals.

We're talking about the possibility of keeping Alex Smith beyond this year over ONE ****ING GAME. Yeah, it was a really stellar game. So was last year's Game 1 against San Diego. What did he do the rest of the season?

More than likely, he's going to overstay his welcome by the end of the year like he always does. The coaches aren't going to want him any more after this season. Neither will the fans. What he did Week 1 simply ain't going to be duplicated again this season... possibly not ever again for the rest of his career.

Mahomes contract is only cheap for 4 years. His 5th year option is $19 million. It makes no sense to only use 2 years of his cheap salary unless Alex takes this team to the SB.

If Alex11 gets us there (SB) are they going to offer him a contract? What would it look like? 1 year with 3 years of options w/ 1 year guaranteed?

Not that I an advocating for, nor do I think it's a great idea, but I do wonder what PMll15 would be worth on the street if he went on the block at the end of this year? Especially if he has to fill in for Alex11 after a major hit or injury and made a good showing.

So my wild-ass dream scenario had the Jags not franchising Allen Robinson and the Chiefs making a strong push for him next off-season. It seemed unlikely but possible if Bortles undercut him again.

Well with his injury, I don't see any way Jax can franchise him. It might also give the Chiefs a shot at a bit of a discount. If Smith returns, there's no way they can get Robinson in here even on a reduced deal.

So the calculus becomes more difficult at that point. Granted, they'd also need to see the medicals on him but if you had a shot at bringing in a 25 yr old WR with 1,400 yard skills and the size/speed combo to help Mahomes across the board, it sure would be hard to pass on that chance so you could give Smith another go.

I guess there's always another free agent, but man - young WRs with huge seasons and great measurables don't hit the market that often. A healthy Robinson with a good QB is a genuine WR1, IMO. He can do everything you want from a WR. If he hits the market and the medicals check out, I just don't see how you can keep Smith around - it's time to move forward and he could be a big part of the future here.

Nah - I think everyone had a 'what would Smith have to do' barometer even before the Patriots game. For most, the answer was probably "get to the Super Bowl" though there was certainly variation between the margins (for some, 'cure cancer' and for others 'not die').

The only thing that game did was make folks question how likely/unlikely their original possibility may be. My position was always a strong season and an AFC Championship Game appearance would probably earn him the rope - with the caveat that he couldn't get dragged along kicking and screaming in the post-season. I haven't changed that belief.

But like I said, the opportunity cost may be what decides it. I didn't see any FAs that were likely to greatly alter that cap math; looks like a bit of a down year and the Chiefs don't have a ton of holes. Moreover, they have to be careful about signing older vets given the young guys that will need to be paid for over the coming years. But man, a shot at a young veteran who could take this offense to the next level under Mahomes is pretty damn intriguing.

Can we at least acknowledge the obvious: so long as Smith plays like he did Thursday on a consistent basis, and the defense doesn't suffer any more devastating injuries like it did with Berry -- this is a Super Bowl caliber team.

The way they played on Thursday means that when they are "on" in this regard, only a couple teams can really hang with them, and those teams are all in the AFC. Maybe the Steelers in the NFC, maybe. And if Hightower recovers fully, maybe the Pats, maybe.

But if this team has Super Bowl chops, and until we see Smith turn into a pumpkin for more than a couple games this season, keeping Smith has to be a viable option going forward.

You don't stick with moving on to Mahomes for the sake of the cost it took to get him. You move on to him when he's the best option.

Assuming Smith plays like he did Thursday on a consistent basis (man-sized if), and this team either advances to the Super Bowl or at least shows Super Bowl chops for this season and postseason, then I think we need to say keeping Smith for 2018 is our default position until he gives us serious reasons to think otherwise.

I don't think the Chiefs can afford him, and Conley IMO is still a very dangerous weapon tailor made for Mahomes. The guy is probably another 600 yard ish WR with Alex. The problem with Robinson IMO is that Andy likes to spread the ball around everywhere.

I love Allen Robinson, but from what I've seen, priority #1 for the Chiefs financially has to be keeping Mitch Morse and Bennie Logan. I'm all for using the $$ on elite caliber lineman to protect Mahomes and blow up runnng plays. Those are rare players that are difficult to replace and WR has never been a premiere position in Andy'a offense.

IMO, we ideally get a 2nd for Alex, get a CB like Shaq Griffin (Seattle pick this year) and a new slot receiver like Cooper Kupp, then use the rest on the lines.

I don't care if Smith wins the Superbowl with this team. If Reid believes that Mahomes is ready in 2018....then Smith needs to be shown the door.

Andy is so good schematically, it's tough to spend big money on WRs that are free agents.

Conley isn't a dangerous weapon. He's just too damn long in his strides and slow in/out of his cuts. If Reid can scheme him open, he's fine. But he doesn't create space on his own. He's a glorified 2nd TE in many ways. Honestly, I think DeMarcus Robinson has more potential in this offense than Conley at this point. I hate it, but man those feet just look slow to me.

You may be right - getting another premier WR in here may not be needed. But man, A. Robinson brings an 'all levels' dimension that this team has NEVER had. Well, not since Otis. He can take off downfield, body a guy over the middle or make a quick cut to create room. When healthy, he's a true 'every play' weapon.

Perhaps Reid's ability to scheme provides diminishing returns on that kind of weapon. But it was only when he had TO that he was able to get to the Super Bowl. Sometimes there's no trumping talent.

I'm actually more of a Conley fan. Ow that I was a year or two ago . He looks slimmer and a little more agile to me. He's never gonna be the quick catch get open guy but I'd like to see them use him more like Robinson in that last preseason game

Speaking of Robinson I think Demarcus has a bright future in KC.

I wouldn't be upset with jacksonvilles robinson but that money would/could go along way with keeping this core together and or another defensive player

Yeah I like Allen Robinson, but looking around the league, especially our game, it shows me that we need to keep Mitch Morse and Bennie Logan. I would also add Dee Ford to that list. OL play is worse than I've ever seen it in this league. It really showed up in the Seahawks/Packers game as well as the Bengals game.

Kareem Hunt was great, but LDT and Morse were straight up killing the Patriots. On one play, Morse obliterated TWO defenders opening up a gaping hole for Hunt.

The best thing we can do for Mahomes is keep this OL togethwr with our weapons. I like Conley and Chesson as tall high pointers for Mahomes along with another speed receiver for the slot early in the draft.

I would not want to be Smith walking into Arrowhead on Sunday with that kind of expectations on me. It's going to be fun to watch as I think each week he will gaining confidence. I want to hear "No More Mr. Nice Guy" when the chiefs offense comes on the field.

I will be happy if he scores a TD every quarter and the D or ST gets a TD too. (everyone wants to have fun!)

If he can do that and the D can keep scoring under 21 points we have a winning plan. Expecting 4 passing TD's every Sunday? Not going to happen, but if Alex walks the team into the red zone and gets it in the end zone 4 times each game, either by land, sea, or air, then he will have done his job.

Mahomes ll will learn a lot sitting back and watching Alex11 every Sunday and mastering his own skills during the week.

I bet that if and when Alex11 does leave that Mahomes ll will grateful for the lessons learned from Smith, and vice-versa.

He'll be outpriced and with Peters coming up soon, they can't sink that much into the CB spot, but if you could put Trumaine Johnson accross from Peters, I'd much rather spend that money there than on a WR.

Dude, that's not happening. Johnson is going to get $13+ million per. The Chiefs can't have $26 million or more wrapped up in two CB's, not to mention, Eric Berry's $13 million dollar deal.

Yeah I said it wouldn't or couldn't happen

Just pointing out that I'd rather spend the money on a corner or pass rusher

In terms of receivers, Robinson made a huge leap from Year 1 to Year 2, at least in the preseason.

But outside Ty Hill, the receivers with the most upside, at least from what I've seen, are Marcus Kemp and Jehu Chesson.

If either of those guys make the leap, this receiving corp goes from slightly above average to downright scary.

It would be nice but I doubt it happens.

I can't see the Chiefs signing a free agent OLBer to a huge contract. Those rarely, if ever, pan out.

FWIW, Johnson was lights out yesterday in his first game under Wade.

The Rams didn't even have Aaron Donald out there, which means the Rams defense could be scary good.

They need one of those guys to be a legit dude to really get into the upper echelon.

But I'm not sure that's really needed anyway. 3 or 4 really good players

Yeah I figured in Wades system Johnson would be legit: I doubt they let him walk but iirc their cap is out of whack?

Their cap is in great shape: $60 million in space next year.

Maybe it's this year they're ****ed? I dunno why I was thinking their cap was weird

Surely they'll keep Johnson.

Yeah, especially since they have a cheap QB for the next 4 seasons (including this season).

Goff was impressive yesterday. He looked completely different than last year.

Yeah I figured Mcvay would get him looking better. Cousins looked like shit without him as well.

His regular season doesn't matter.

If he shits the bed in the playoffs again he's gone.

Yeah, but that's what we said last year at this time.

*shrug*

Uh, wut?

The Cowboys and Falcons might have something to say about that.

Pump the brakes, fam. It's Week 1.

Yeah sorry -- I meant NFC. The NFC is much deeper.

Carson Palmer looks terrible. I think Alex to Arizona is the right move. 2nd rd pick is fair.

Two ways Smith stays:

1. He takes this team to the Superbowl, which would pretty much force their hand. 100% chance he is kept.

2. He goes for 65% comp, 4+k yards, 25+ tds, >10 INTs and leads the team to the AFC Championship game. About 70% chance he is kept.

Either of these scenarios happen and he'll get a multi-year extension to lower his cap number and keep him around longer. Mahomes gets the Rodgers treatment without the "will he won't he retire" dance.

Alex Smith isn't getting an extension unless Mahomes is severely injured or goes potato. Some of you ****ers smh

This isn't comparable to Rodgers and Favre. Smith isn't a HoF QB you mongoloids.

I still think he's the exact opposite of what Arians wants in a passer.

For a lot of coaches facing that dilemma, you'd be right - he's a good stop gap for a team that might not have a wealth of replacement options but has the tools to win over the next 2-3 years.

But man, with Arians emphasis on downfield passing, Smith just doesn't appear to be in his wheelhouse.

I'm still surprised they didn't trade up to get Kizer or snag Webb rather than trade out of the spot in the 3rd. They traded away the pick they could've gotten Webb with for a 3rd they used on a small school WR and a G. That strikes me as a poor use of resources for a team with Carson Palmer under center.

My guess would either be the Jags or the Jets. They could both use a competent starting QB to become relevant if they draft a QB next year.

I think the Patriots have totally misplayed the Brady - Garoppolo situation and they should be the case study on not to handle the QB position.

Trade them Mahomes for 3 first rounders


Ducks for cover

They should have traded jimmy or moved on from Tom

I think they'd have traded Garapollo had they gotten a 2nd round offer for him. The rumors were that they wouldn't even take a 1st but that was an obvious smokescreen.

We'll never know, but Belichick has never been loathe to trade a player, let alone a backup QB, in the past (hell, he traded Brissett right before the season started). Had he been able to get a mid 2nd for JG, he'd have done it.

But Garapollo is starting to get an 'injury prone' label and nobody truly knows what they have there.

I'm not sure what else the Pats could've done. You don't trade Brady to clear a space for a guy like Garapollo who, apart from Patriot hype, hasn't shown a ton. And you don't just dump your backup when you have a 40 year old starter.

I think the Patriots have handled it fine.

ROFL

I hope it happens just to see the kicking and screaming on CP.

Say they traded Jimmy G for at worst a 2nd and a conditional mid-rounder before the start of 2017. Then Brady blows his ACL against the Chiefs, forcing Brisset (or better yet some shiftless vet FA) to start. They go 4-12 or worse, they'll be in a better position to draft a dude that you can justify sitting a few years to wait out Brady's swan song.

If he doesn't get hurt then it doesn't really matter that they don't have Jimmy G anyway.