It's a great signing. I'd place decent odds on him performing at or above the same level as Wade Davis the next two years.

Cubs go out and get Cobb now, and they'll have added two good starters, and a guy who can be an elite closer for the same price of bringing back Arrieta.

Love those moves.

Cardinals "aggressively pursuing" Colome.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rockies?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rockies</a> are aggressively pursuing <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rays</a> closer Alex Colome in trade talks</p>&mdash; Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/940202793972961281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2017</a></blockquote>
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It is Bob Nightengale though and he did say that Stanton wouldnt be going to the Yankees like 12 hours before he was traded to the Yankees.

Of course they are.

Remember 3 years ago when the guy was damn near out of baseball? Then the same thing that happened to essentially every closer happened - a failed starter was put in relief and he sucked less.

****ing organization is out of ideas. You build guys like Alex Colome - you don't ****ing buy them. When you're spinning your wheels in August, you don't trade an organizational asset to plug in someone like Juan Nicasio for a month - you put Sam Tuivailala or John Brebbia in the 9th and see if you can get their stuff to play up and close down games.

But no, this idiot franchise learned nothing down the stretch so they'll have to give up someone like Flaherty or Alcantara for a person who isn't as good as either of them but he's 'done it before'.

Because actually making players better or finding out where they excel is beneath this mongoloid coaching staff.

Congrats, JD - your rival is led by ****ing idiots. And their owner doesn't care because the turnstiles keep spinning. You're going to get a decade like we had when the Tribune owned the Cubs and Hendry was exposed as not really having a clue what he was doing after Prior/Wood/Zambrano fell apart.

Thanks Dusty, you mother ****er you!

was at a party this weekend and some Rays fans were talking about the impending deal for Archer/Colume that they were getting Reyes/Hudson and either Piscotty or Grichuk. I told them they were nuts if they think they getting that much for those two. Just met these guys so I have no idea if they know what the hell they were talking about.

I dont think thats nuts. Archer is not going to come cheap even if you personally think he is overrated. Archer has been a virtual lock for 200 innings and while his ERA has gone up he still manages a very respectable FIP while striking out 10+ per 9. His numbers, the division he plays in, and the cheap ass contract he is playing under til 2022 will get a VERY good return for the Rays if they decide to trade him.

You are vastly overrating the worth of prospects, especially the ones the Cardinals have to offer.

I would think the Cardinals would be stealing Archer by himself if the closest thing to a high value prospect was Reyes.

Archer has 4/$30.25M left under contract. To put that in perspective, the Cubs just gave 3/$38M to Tyler Chatwood. The Cardinals gave Mike Leake ****ing 5/$80M. The Giants gave Jeff Samardzija 5/$90M.

The deal for Archer starts with Reyes + Kelly and builds from there.

Yeah, that's not out of bounds at all.

I think Archer's incredibly overrated but that contract of his and the fact that some teams WON'T think he's overrated but will fall in love with those K numbers means he'll get a huge return, especially with his durability.

Colome is also overrated but he's closed games for 2 years and has 3 years of control left. I have no interest in acquiring a guy like that, but other teams with lazy/gunshy management will be all over him rather than pay $17 million/season for Davis or Holland.

A Colome/Archer deal will cost far FAR more than Reyes and Piscotty/Grichuk. Dakota Hudson would be a throw-in for that kind of deal. Reyes, Hudson, Kelly, Grichuk might get it done. It also might come up short.

That's why I want no part of that deal and no part of that team. Longoria's the third in their triumvirate of wildly overrated players but comes with the additional kicker of being very expensive for the next 5 years.

But of course, an older, more expensive, less effective version of the guy they've been chasing for 5 years, an overrated reliever who's 'done it before' and a pitcher that's going to cost far more to acquire than he'll mean on the diamond....right up Moe's alley. That's the kind of trade he'll try to make because it is going to get the 'truefans' in Cardinal Nation in sorts of lathered up.

Nevermind the fact that it makes them maybe 4 games better. Maybe. And in the process they'd pretty much gut their farm system.

Just look at what the Cubs gave up for Jose Quintana who has comparable career numbers, slightly worse, to Archer and 1 less year of control.

Jimenez and Cease would probably be the rough equivalent of Reyes and Bader. The Cubs duo is probably worth a little more, but it's in the margin of error.

And because Archer has the strikeout rates and extra year of control, he'll be worth a bit more than Quintana so you'd need to beat that offer by a bit. The only way the Cards are going to do that is with Kelly or maybe Flaherty/Weaver. But they really shouldn't be moving Flaherty/Weaver given their clear plan for the rotation going forward (especially not if Reyes is dealt).

The other two guys are filler, really. They may have the value of that Woodman clown the Cardinals just got from the Jays for Diaz.

So yeah, to make a comparable trade for Archer the Cardinals would need to top Jimenez/Cease. The only clear way to do that in this system is Reyes and Kelly. Hudson and Grichuk might get them in the door on Colome but they would probably need to toss in another guy like Woodford or Gallen.

So based on the returns of pitchers with a lot of control and relievers with sparkly save numbers, you'd have to assume it would take AT LEAST Reyes, Kelly, Hudson, Gallen, Grichuk and Woodman.

For the record, the return the Phillies got for Giles was a top 50 arm, another top 70 arm, a high draft pick pitcher who is performing well in the minors out of college, a projectable power arm with some distance still to go and a young veteran who's something of a quad A player.

Look at the Cardinals system again and how do you put that one together? Again, it's pretty easy:

Weaver (Velazquez) - Flaherty (Appel)- Gallen (Eshelman) - Siejas (Auraz) - Gant (Oberholtzer).

It's not a perfect comparison because Giles was younger with another year of control, but he was also a hell of a lot less proven and that's what you're buying with these damn 'closer' trades anyway. But for the sake of argument lets say that the Rays decide to give a 'bulk' discount by being able to make one massive trade rather than having to find two different buyers. Let's also assume that Giles is more valuable than Colome. What might that net you?

I'll be optimistic and say that those 2 factors are so strong that they'll take the return from getting a top 50 arm and a top 75 arm (in addition to the rest of the haul) all the way down to getting zero top 100 arms but maybe a couple of top 150 guys (the remainder of the haul stays intact) . That's a pretty steep discount, no? We'll knock it from the Cards 2 and 3 arms to their 4 and 5, neither of whom are top 100 prospects. That's probably being optimstic and it's STILL Alcantara and Hudson.

So now your combined deal for Archer and Colome, if the last 18 months of the market means anything at all, is at LEAST:

Reyes, Kelly, Hudson, Alcantara, Gallen, Siejas, Gant and Woodman

And gents, I think I'm being kind. I don't think Reyes and Kelly is much better, if at all, than Jimenez and Cease given the injury and service time losses with Reyes. Meanwhile I think Archer's extra year of control gives him a fair amount more value on the market. And I don't think the Rays will have to sub out both Flaherty AND Weaver if they wanted to move Colome; I think they can/should be able to get at least one of those guys in the deal because if they moved him to someone that isn't the Cardinals, they could get a top 50 arm in return.

I think it's far more likely that you're looking at Reyes, Flaherty, Alcantara, Kelly, Gallen, Seijas, Woodman and Gant.

That's what the market for arms is right now. That's why it's so goddamn stupid that a team with NOTHING BUT ARMS in the entire friggen system is out there trying to acquire more. Bats are getting moved for cheap right now and the ****ing Cardinals are so tunnel-visioned that they're considering gutting their system for two guys in Archer and Colome that might make them 4 games better.

And hell, they'll probably get Longoria included in that deal so he can be 10% better than Gyorko (maybe) for the next several years at 3 times the cost. The fans will love it, though. They've had a hard on for that guy since he was actually good and cheap. Now that he's neither of those things, Mozeliak will strike.

This is your Mozlieak Cardinals. Just completely out of ideas.

Soooooo, they go from courting the top available bat to giving up on the offense and courting pitching......I'm less and less interested as this transpires.

I think KC is a better matchup for relief help for the Cardinals, personally. Something like Scott Alexander and Herrera gives you more control and more value and probably is no more expensive than Colome in acquisition cost.


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:eek:**** that and **** that again. Why the hell would we completely gut our farm system for those two players? That's the stupidest deal I've heard this off season.

Herrera lost his job and is very possibly damaged goods who's approaching his FA year. And honestly, I don't trust any part of that 3-headed monster that Yost assembled. He spent 4 years absolutely flogging those guys and it's no surprise that Holland got injured, Davis appears to be held together with duct tape and Herrera mysteriously lost effectiveness last year. I don't judge Yost for it at all - he did what he had to do and won 2 pennants and a WS - you make that deal every single time. But that doesn't mean I have to have any faith in his discards. Beyond that, I'm still not convinced Herrera didn't quit on you guys late in the year.

Scott Alexander is a JAG. And I don't say that to diminish the guy - JAGS are fine, most bullpens have several of them. But the Cardinals have several of those guys as well and frankly, Matheny won't use them.

So what the hell use do we have for another one? Alexander is John Brebbia. He might be a little better. He might be a little worse. He's almost certainly not enough outside of those margins either way to matter.
He's what Matt Bowman was for 4 months before Matheny finally finished the job in August (lord, what Matheny did to that poor guy was borderline criminal).

If your system doesn't have 5 Scott Alexanders in it and you've dedicated the kind of organizational capital to pitching that the Cardinals have, there's really no sense in keeping anyone around.

Like I said - look at what their comparables have gone for and tell me I'm that far off.

If you think Reyes/Grichuk would be too much for even one of those guys, let alone both of them, I have some really bad news for you.

You're simply way off on what the market is for arms right now. That's why the Cardinals would be wise to stay the hell out of it.

Go sign Tommy Hunter and Brian Shaw. Tell them that they can compete for the 9th and see where the chips fall. If neither of them do it, throw Lyons out there; he's not idea but he'd convert 80-85%, IMO. They don't need to pay for games that Colome saved for the Rays. That has very little to do with what he'll do for the Cardinals.