I haven't kept up much, as I generally wait until after the college bball tourney to really get into baseball, but it sounds from the last few comments that Hosmer is still struggling. I'm starting to get concerned about him... Too early to do so?

I dont think its too early to be concerned. I think he needs to have a breakout year. Especially if we expect to make a playoff run.

Our hand-wringing and focus on our new pitchers and what they mean to our playoff chances, presupposes that Hosmer and Moustakas will be good. (and Escobar will be decent, and Perez wont get hurt, and Butler/Gordon will hit more home runs).

If Hosmer struggles, we're in trouble.

Bob Dutton ‏@Royals_Report

LHP Brandon Sisk, the reliever the #Royals sent to the Angels for RHP Ervin Santana, will undergo Tommy John surgery.

You are not too early to get concerned. If everything falls into place, we win 80 games. More likely we lose at least 90 yet again. Fate. Karma. Kismet. Whatever.

Did you mean to say "If everything falls into place, we win 90 games?"

No.

Karma is a bitch!

:thumb:Then I strongly disagree. That's an incredibly pessimistic view.

This is what "Everything falling into place" would look like.

James Shields pitches like he has the past two seasons (3.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 230 IP, 220 Ks)

Jeremy Guthrie pitches at the level he pitched at after coming to KC, or right around there (3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 200 IP)

Ervin Santana bounces back and pitches at his peak level (3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 200 IP, 180 K)

Wade Davis improves as a starter after pitching in the bullpen (3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 200 IP, 175 K)

Bruce Chen/Mendoza/whoever else give them quality work from the 5 spot.

Mike Moustakas hits for an entire season life his first half of 2012 (.280/30/90 RBI/.500 SLG/.820 OPS/125 OPS+)

Billy Butler repeats his 2012 power outbreak (.300/30/100/.500 SLG/.880 OPS/140 OPS+)

Alex Gordon does roughly what he has the past two seasons (.295/18/70/.475 SLG/130 OPS+)

Sal Perez produces his numbers over a whole season (.300/20/80/.475 SLG/.800 OPS/120 OPS+)

Eric Hosmer bounces back (.290/25/100/.475 SLG/.825 OPS)

It also would include the bullpen being just as good as the past two years, Cain staying healthy a full season, Escobar producing at a steady rate, even if his average is less shiny.

That team is going to do better than 80 wins. I wouldn't put a high likelihood on all those things happening, but if they do, this is much more than an 80-win team (last year's squad, which only had 2.5 of the things listed individually above, would have won 80 games just by being 2-3 wins lucky according to Pythag rather than 6-7 games unlucky).

you are nuts. If literally everything fell into place, and everyone performed to potential, not only do we wipe out the Tigers, we might have the best record in baseball.

That obviously wont happen, several things will go wrong to a greater or lesser extent. Hopefully not enough to cost us the 2nd wild card (but more than likely so)

Regarding Hosmer and the WBC, I didn't think his approach looked terrible. In fact, he was carrying a bad luck 0-3 in one of the games I watched (Dom, maybe...), and he had absolutely crushed the ball in two of those ABs.

We'll see...

If everything goes right this Royals team can win 85-88 games. If things go like they do for the Royals, this is a 75 win team.

If everything goes right, the Royals win 90-100 games.

I should have included Ned in my thoughts.

Duncan, I respect your opinion, probably more than any others, especially concerning the Royals. Lots of ifs. As a 48 year old man who was at game 7, I pray you are correct. My skepticism runs deep, and I will buy you a beer if we make the playoffs. If win win 81 games, I will as well. Thank you for your analysis. Not trying to bring everyone down. We seem to be the Chicago Cubs South.