Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts
There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.
I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com. RB
Spoiler!
Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck. WR
Spoiler!
There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know. DL
Spoiler!
That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there. Pass Rush
Spoiler!
We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes. Corner
Spoiler!
I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good. I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it. That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap. My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts. |
2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.
|
The value of RBs has plummeted as the passing rules have relaxed.
It's honestly kinda shitty. I would pine for 90s football if we didn't have Patrick Mahomes. |
Good post.
I would pay Tyreek Hill right now and be fine with it. I think he’s worth it. I’d also offer a contract to Chris Jones, but not at or higher than Aaron Donald’s. Dee Ford will probably get the tag, but if he gets a contract I’d like it to be a 3 year deal like Sammy’s. That would mean his money is off the books when Mahomes starts getting big money to the cap on his deal. Everyone else is expendable. Hunt, Fuller, Nelson, Ragland, Conley, Butker, Morse. |
Quote:
OBJ is legit. But the Giants are total **** even with him on there. Obviously he's not contributing to wins. Plus if we extend him after next year he'll be 30 by the end of a 5 year deal and will probably have lost a step. I'm not all about speed guys who are aging. Christ it sucks ass, but I think it's the thing to do. He's going to get PAID and I don't think it should be us. Remember when Manning had Marvin Harrison and everyone thought he was the best ever. Remember when Manning didn't have Marvin Harrison? I think Hill is better than Harrison, but looking through that list, particularly OBJ, it's tough for me to pay a guy that doesn't contribute to wins. |
Quote:
He makes everyone on the offense better. He is invaluable. |
Quote:
Sammy's at 15, Houston is at 17. I can't justify wrapping up that kind of money in 2 OLB with so many games missed to injury. Jones, even if he's below Donald, is still a ****LOAD of cash. And there are games when Jones disappears. That shit just gives me heebeejeebees. |
Quote:
If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production? I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk. I just don't want a hamstring pull away from $20M per on the bench. |
WADR, I don’t really think the argument of guys getting paid a lot but not winning games is good when evaluating this. It’s not OBJ or David Johnson’s fault that their teams suck. Look at the QB situations, the offensive line, etc.
Tyreek is developing into a top 3 WR if he isn’t already and he literally is the most dangerous player in football right now. He can’t get away. Watkins’ contract right now is a luxury and once he’s off the books, we basically replace his salary with Tyreek. I understand letting Ford go after tagging him for a year because of his injury history, but Jones is starting to look like a true game wrecker and that’s hard to pass up. You can’t pinch pennies with superstars. Absolutely can’t do it. I mean just look at what Oakland did getting rid of Mack and what he has done for Chicago. |
It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.
|
It would be like the Steelers not paying Brown and I think Hill is as good or even better. It’s just talent you aren’t gonna replace in the draft.
|
Quote:
Look at all those years of JC being our best player got us. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
Antonio Brown’s deal has been great for Pittsburgh. Aaron Donald is off to a hell of start, as well as Mack. Chandler Jones too. Belichick paid Gilmore a ton and it has paid off. There’s a ton of positive examples too. I’m sure there’s a happy medium in there somewhere, but you can’t just let every star player walk out of fear that they’re going to have fluke injuries or whatever. Like Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel weren’t even very good players. We’re talking about Hill, Jones, etc. here. |
Quote:
|
If a guy changes the game truly and has to be account for every play, I’d say you keep him.
Hill definitely falls under that category and Jones and Ford have so far this year. I’d keep Jones. |
Quote:
No one can do what he does. Sean Payton and Drew Brees even said he’s the most dangerous player in football just a week ago. |
Tyreek is absolutely worth the money. Completely changes how DC’s call plays and how the defensive players behave on the field. This opens up things all over the field for other receivers.
|
Quote:
LAR was getting pressure from a bunch of dudes not making Donald money and Rape gets production out of a bunch of dudes. I think Brown is a success story because they aren't as good when he's out. |
I am glad you made this thread though because it’s a good time to discuss these things over the bye.
Personally, I don’t expect us to be active in FA really at all this year. I think Veach knows that he’s got a loaded roster that will require plenty of cap space to maintain, and his draft choice pool in 2019 is pretty solid. I don’t imagine he’s going to tie much guaranteed money into any UFAs from other teams knowing all of these big decisions that are coming ahead. We’re going to build through the draft, but unlike the Packers (who have tried to do that despite a lack of overall strong roster talent), we already have the star talent on the roster to reload cost efficiently. |
As much as I love Mahomes and want to declare him the messiah, he’s not this good without Tyreek. Pay Hill his money and let’s fix this defensive secondary before we need to make Pat the highest player ever.
|
Quote:
I'm not necessarily opposed to paying him, It's just going to really strap our cap and if there is and injury, like there often is for explosive speed guys, man we are ****ed. Again. Like usual. I just think we need to be open to letting him walk. |
Realistically we don't need to make each and every one of these decisions at the same time. They're likely going to be staggered and we have draft capital to plug some holes so it's not as daunting as it sounds.
That said, the thought of watching Tyreek Hill on any other team in the NFL makes me want to vomit. He makes so many other parts of our offense more effective that his individual stats might underrepresent his contribution as much as any player in the NFL (if that's even possible looking at a 1600yd season). I was always a huge Percy Harvin fan as he was the most explosive football player I had ever seen, but Hill runs circles around him. Pay the man his money. |
Quote:
Two nickels don’t equal a dime. Pay hill. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar.
It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace |
You pay Hill. Period. If he gets hurt, you shake your head and hope your stud QB can help elevate the practice squad guy that gets called up but, under no circumstance should Tyreek Hill play a snap for another team until he is past 30, at the least.
|
I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.
So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878 Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal. Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million. https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878 I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible. Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything. Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace. |
I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.
Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed. If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants. So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim. |
Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Following year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady had to for most of his years. |
Quote:
|
Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.
If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time. |
Quote:
Idk, I like Veach and even though he hasn’t been perfect (no GM is), I love that he seems to be so methodical and detailed. I think he eats, sleeps, and breathes stuff like this that we’re talking about. I think he is a great talent evaluator, and a guy who has an ever evolving plan at all times. Wbf with he and Reid leading the charge. |
We can afford to pay Hill and Mahomes and one defensive guy.
I mean you do have to pay someone and the argument to not pay Hill is INSANE, he is as rare a talent as Mahomes. |
Quote:
We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft. |
Quote:
|
The case for Hill is that he hasn't even fully tapped his potential as a WR. Plus, I've never seen a guy who can sustain the level of play that he does for an entire game. His conditioning is remarkable.
|
Yeah. I said in the OP the WR group is the one that looked the most promising. And Hill is probably the guy that is the most likely to be a legit elite talent not a flash in the pan.
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
Everyone else is expendable. |
Hill should be the #1 priority this off season. I'd sign him to his second contract but not a 3rd contract. I'd also sign Chris Jones. I think the only way to play defense now is to rush the passer with ball hawking DB's and the new lean Chris Jones is becoming one of the best on the DL in the league.
They don't want to wait till next year for either of them. |
Quote:
Math people! :D |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
I will take a reduction in offense if we can balance the team.
Can you accept a reduction in offense if it means getting 2 really good players on defense? |
Quote:
But if he wants Donald money he needs to get it elsewhere IMO. |
Quote:
|
I think if you tag Ford next year and he replicates what he has done this season so far, you may go ahead and replace Houston’s contract with a new one for him.
But idk if it will be financially feasible at that point or not. |
Quote:
|
This whole conversation really makes you appreciate the roster we currently have. Window is wide open.
|
Franchise Ford. Pay Jones. Pay Hill. Cut Houston, or renegotiate way down. Cut Berry, or settle through a buyout. Focus on Defense and Oline in the draft.
|
Quote:
BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while. Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket. And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago. I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula. |
Quote:
ESPECIALLY while Mahomes is dramatically underpaid. That's alot of spare cheddah to throw around to do things precisely like extend Hill or bring in someone that you think fits a key need. |
Something else to keep in mind is paying our defensive guys and nobody on offense outside of Tyreek/Mahomes.
Look at all the talent Andy is able to find through the draft since he became a coach? Brian Westbrook DeSean Jackson Brett Celek Jeremy Maclin DeSean Jackson Donovan McNabb Jason Kelce Travis Kelce Kareem Hunt Tyreek Hill LDT Also a few steals for production like Albert Wilson and Zach Fulton. Morse and LDT are out and we are fine this year. Coincidence? I think Andy will keep talent on the offense at a low price. It’s the defense that has been worrisome. |
Man, I’m getting tired of saying this but it has to be said again.......
the Chiefs have an option year in 2021 to keep Mahomes on his rookie contract. It was a 5 year contract if the Chiefs want that option year. |
Quote:
You may as well just extend him as fast as possible. Get ahead of it and pay less. |
Quote:
|
Did you take into account the emotional attachment from the fans?
|
Quote:
I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least. |
Quote:
Is his girlfriend a supermodel that makes $140 million a year? :hmmm: We at least need to get Mahomes brand selling which helps skirt the cap and income... You know TB12 is sold inside Gillette,.. |
There is no right or wrong way to build and pay for your team. Everyone wants to chase the latest trend, but there really isn't any (other than QB's get paid).
Last 3 Super Bowl teams and 3 largest cap hits Eagles - Jeffrey, WR(10.7M), Johnson, RT (9.8M), Cox, DT (9.4) Pats - Brady (14), Solder, LT (11.1), McCourty, CB (10.9) Pats - Brady (13.7), Solder, LT (10.3), Hightower, LB (7.7) Falcons - Ryan (23.7), Jones (15.9), Jackson, DE (6.35 - thanks Pioli) Broncos - Manning (17.5), Thomas (13.2), Clady, LT (10.6) Panthers - Johnson, DE (20), Newton (13), Kalil, C (11.8) |
Quote:
Fully guaranteed contracts might be the new thing in the NFL. |
Quote:
Then Mac459 texted me the edge list and where we thought Ford fit in. YIKES. Then I went down a rabbit hole. |
Quote:
I would LOVE to see the league go to fully guaranteed contracts that make deals 2-3 years more common. If we had that with Berry right now, it’d be awesome. |
Quote:
Brady At 14M. Christ. Hopefully Clark does the same sweetheart deal for Pat. |
I'm guessing we end up with a decently long lockout when the CBA expires.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
Posted via Mobile Device |
Quote:
|
I cant buy any kind of Hill/OBJ comparisons, OBJ doesnt have the same level of drive and commitment to his craft as Hill does, in my estimation
Then of course we can always point to what a turd OBJ has apparently been behind the scenes... something thats never been a problem for Hill |
As I see it, the musts on the offense are Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce, with Hunt almost in that group.We're good with Watkins for 2 more years and WR #-3-6 are pretty much mix and match, so let's start looking at the O-line. We're going to need both Ts in a couple years, a LG and C. I'm not sure we don't have a couple of those guys under contract right now a a friendly price. Lots of Big 10 talent out there this spring.
On the other side of the ball, Jones is the only one I see we must have. Ford is playing for a contract, period. I just don't see him as a long-term solution. Franchise him if we have to. We're stuck with the Houston contract, so let's get Speaks in there more. I think I'm semi-OK with our ILB situation. Our secondary needs help, especially at the S position. Berry's contract, as it stands now, is a boat anchor. I just can't justify pumping a lot of cash into another big name S when we have some question marks like Lucas and Watts already on the payroll and Berry maybe giving us a couple more years. |
Quote:
And try hard doesn’t account for much in terms of production. Part of the reason OBJ hasn’t improved as much as Hill is because Hill was a RB. The poster that brought up locking him up BEFORE he reaches his zenith is valid. But let’s be real here. I want to **** punt OBJ as much as the next guy. I think he’s a piece of shit that if we had that contract out I’d be concerned about him going off the rails TO style. All that being said, the talent is there. He has scored an absurd amount of TDs off slant patterns. He’s good down field but he got that jack because he is (or maybe was - I’m not watching those abortions of Giants game) unguardable in the short game. That short area quickness and top end speed - even if it isn’t hill speed is nuts. The talent is legit and the production was there. He earned the contract. But that doesnt mean the giants should have paid it. |
Scandrick will be gone - he gets exposed against great receivers, he's serviceable, otherwise. He will get a job, but I don't want to keep him. (& to be fair, I like him okay)
Sammy will be gone after next season, no way around that, I don't think. |
Quote:
As much as I love Tyreek, he's playing with a QB that literally might have a cannon attached to his right arm. You couldn't really design a better QB to play to Hills strengths |
Quote:
Calling out Eli, his coaches etc... they'd just given him a bajillion dollars, and that was the thanks they got, it was ridiculous He surely has talent, but I'd still say he doesnt have the same level of dedication, or team first attitude as Hill |
Idk fellas, this stuff is all fun to talk about but at the end of the day it’s out of our control and we’ve got a great season rolling.
We’ve got one of the most explosive offenses the league has ever seen, and we can rush the passer with the front four as good as anybody. It’s a great, great combination to have. This could finally be the year. |
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:44 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.