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Buehler445 11-21-2018 12:19 AM

Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts
 
There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB
Spoiler!


Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR
Spoiler!


There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL
Spoiler!


That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush
Spoiler!


We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner
Spoiler!


I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

kcpasco 11-21-2018 12:27 AM

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.

Hammock Parties 11-21-2018 12:32 AM

The value of RBs has plummeted as the passing rules have relaxed.

It's honestly kinda shitty.

I would pine for 90s football if we didn't have Patrick Mahomes.

RunKC 11-21-2018 12:37 AM

Good post.

I would pay Tyreek Hill right now and be fine with it. I think he’s worth it. I’d also offer a contract to Chris Jones, but not at or higher than Aaron Donald’s.
Dee Ford will probably get the tag, but if he gets a contract I’d like it to be a 3 year deal like Sammy’s. That would mean his money is off the books when Mahomes starts getting big money to the cap on his deal.

Everyone else is expendable. Hunt, Fuller, Nelson, Ragland, Conley, Butker, Morse.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcpasco (Post 13907830)
2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable.

I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.

OBJ is legit. But the Giants are total **** even with him on there. Obviously he's not contributing to wins.

Plus if we extend him after next year he'll be 30 by the end of a 5 year deal and will probably have lost a step. I'm not all about speed guys who are aging.

Christ it sucks ass, but I think it's the thing to do. He's going to get PAID and I don't think it should be us.

Remember when Manning had Marvin Harrison and everyone thought he was the best ever. Remember when Manning didn't have Marvin Harrison?

I think Hill is better than Harrison, but looking through that list, particularly OBJ, it's tough for me to pay a guy that doesn't contribute to wins.

Hammock Parties 11-21-2018 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13907837)
I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.

You're insane.

He makes everyone on the offense better.

He is invaluable.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 12:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 13907836)
Good post.

I would pay Tyreek Hill right now and be fine with it. I think he’s worth it. I’d also offer a contract to Chris Jones, but not at or higher than Aaron Donald’s.
Dee Ford will probably get the tag, but if he gets a contract I’d like it to be a 3 year deal like Sammy’s. That would mean his money is off the books when Mahomes starts getting big money to the cap on his deal.

Everyone else is expendable. Hunt, Fuller, Nelson, Ragland, Conley, Butker, Morse.

I don't think you can extend Hill until after next season. I think that's right anyway.

Sammy's at 15, Houston is at 17. I can't justify wrapping up that kind of money in 2 OLB with so many games missed to injury.

Jones, even if he's below Donald, is still a ****LOAD of cash. And there are games when Jones disappears. That shit just gives me heebeejeebees.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 12:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties (Post 13907838)
You're insane.

He makes everyone on the offense better.

He is invaluable.

So is OBJ. And they have 2 mother****ing wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull away from $20M per on the bench.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 12:49 AM

WADR, I don’t really think the argument of guys getting paid a lot but not winning games is good when evaluating this. It’s not OBJ or David Johnson’s fault that their teams suck. Look at the QB situations, the offensive line, etc.

Tyreek is developing into a top 3 WR if he isn’t already and he literally is the most dangerous player in football right now. He can’t get away. Watkins’ contract right now is a luxury and once he’s off the books, we basically replace his salary with Tyreek. I understand letting Ford go after tagging him for a year because of his injury history, but Jones is starting to look like a true game wrecker and that’s hard to pass up.

You can’t pinch pennies with superstars. Absolutely can’t do it. I mean just look at what Oakland did getting rid of Mack and what he has done for Chicago.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 12:53 AM

It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.

kcpasco 11-21-2018 12:54 AM

It would be like the Steelers not paying Brown and I think Hill is as good or even better. It’s just talent you aren’t gonna replace in the draft.

kcpasco 11-21-2018 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13907847)
It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.

Yeah I love Hunt but I’m not paying top money to a RB unless I have no QB and desperate for offense.

Look at all those years of JC being our best player got us.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13907843)
WADR, I don’t really think the argument of guys getting paid a lot but not winning games is good when evaluating this. It’s not OBJ or David Johnson’s fault that their teams suck. Look at the QB situations, the offensive line, etc.

Tyreek is developing into a top 3 WR if he isn’t already and he literally is the most dangerous player in football right now. He can’t get away. Watkins’ contract right now is a luxury and once he’s off the books, we basically replace his salary with Tyreek. I understand letting Ford go after tagging him for a year because of his injury history, but Jones is starting to look like a true game wrecker and that’s hard to pass up.

You can’t pinch pennies with superstars. Absolutely can’t do it. I mean just look at what Oakland did getting rid of Mack and what he has done for Chicago.

We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel ROFL. Flowers got injured a ****ton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.

kcpasco 11-21-2018 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13907851)
We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel ROFL. Flowers got injured a ****ton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.

Maybe I’m being naive but I don’t see Hill turning into a bum like Bowe. Houston and Berry have been snake bit with injuries.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 01:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13907851)
We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel ROFL. Flowers got injured a ****ton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.

You’re highlighting some of KCs flops, and with the case of Berry and Houston it has been freak injuries (although I don’t think the book is fully written for those two’s legacy in KC).. but what about other teams?

Antonio Brown’s deal has been great for Pittsburgh. Aaron Donald is off to a hell of start, as well as Mack. Chandler Jones too. Belichick paid Gilmore a ton and it has paid off. There’s a ton of positive examples too.

I’m sure there’s a happy medium in there somewhere, but you can’t just let every star player walk out of fear that they’re going to have fluke injuries or whatever. Like Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel weren’t even very good players. We’re talking about Hill, Jones, etc. here.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcpasco (Post 13907848)
It would be like the Steelers not paying Brown and I think Hill is as good or even better. It’s just talent you aren’t gonna replace in the draft.

I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 01:04 AM

If a guy changes the game truly and has to be account for every play, I’d say you keep him.

Hill definitely falls under that category and Jones and Ford have so far this year. I’d keep Jones.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13907855)
I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?

You can’t replicate what Hill does. He has to be schemed for every play. Safety help. Off coverage. All kinds of shit, jet motion, option, you name it.

No one can do what he does. Sean Payton and Drew Brees even said he’s the most dangerous player in football just a week ago.

DRM08 11-21-2018 01:05 AM

Tyreek is absolutely worth the money. Completely changes how DC’s call plays and how the defensive players behave on the field. This opens up things all over the field for other receivers.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13907854)
You’re highlighting some of KCs flops, and with the case of Berry and Houston it has been freak injuries (although I don’t think the book is fully written for those two’s legacy in KC).. but what about other teams?

Antonio Brown’s deal has been great for Pittsburgh. Aaron Donald is off to a hell of start, as well as Mack. Chandler Jones too. Belichick paid Gilmore a ton and it has paid off. There’s a ton of positive examples too.

I’m sure there’s a happy medium in there somewhere, but you can’t just let every star player walk out of fear that they’re going to have fluke injuries or whatever. Like Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel weren’t even very good players. We’re talking about Hill, Jones, etc. here.

Yeah, I follow. But I still can't get over how often these things DON'T work out. And if you are going to tell me that these guys are on shit teams so we shouldn't hold that against them, the same argument can be made for good teams. If Brown/Donald was on a shit team would they still produce?

LAR was getting pressure from a bunch of dudes not making Donald money and Rape gets production out of a bunch of dudes. I think Brown is a success story because they aren't as good when he's out.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 01:13 AM

I am glad you made this thread though because it’s a good time to discuss these things over the bye.

Personally, I don’t expect us to be active in FA really at all this year. I think Veach knows that he’s got a loaded roster that will require plenty of cap space to maintain, and his draft choice pool in 2019 is pretty solid. I don’t imagine he’s going to tie much guaranteed money into any UFAs from other teams knowing all of these big decisions that are coming ahead.

We’re going to build through the draft, but unlike the Packers (who have tried to do that despite a lack of overall strong roster talent), we already have the star talent on the roster to reload cost efficiently.

kcpasco 11-21-2018 01:13 AM

As much as I love Mahomes and want to declare him the messiah, he’s not this good without Tyreek. Pay Hill his money and let’s fix this defensive secondary before we need to make Pat the highest player ever.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13907858)
You can’t replicate what Hill does. He has to be schemed for every play. Safety help. Off coverage. All kinds of shit, jet motion, option, you name it.

No one can do what he does. Sean Payton and Drew Brees even said he’s the most dangerous player in football just a week ago.

Yeah, I'm with you, but there are lots of good offenses that operate without a dude like Hill (Because there aren't any). But the question was can you replace the production? And I get that it is isn't just catches, it's getting other dudes open.

I'm not necessarily opposed to paying him, It's just going to really strap our cap and if there is and injury, like there often is for explosive speed guys, man we are ****ed. Again. Like usual. I just think we need to be open to letting him walk.

TwistedChief 11-21-2018 03:52 AM

Realistically we don't need to make each and every one of these decisions at the same time. They're likely going to be staggered and we have draft capital to plug some holes so it's not as daunting as it sounds.

That said, the thought of watching Tyreek Hill on any other team in the NFL makes me want to vomit. He makes so many other parts of our offense more effective that his individual stats might underrepresent his contribution as much as any player in the NFL (if that's even possible looking at a 1600yd season). I was always a huge Percy Harvin fan as he was the most explosive football player I had ever seen, but Hill runs circles around him. Pay the man his money.

Brooklyn 11-21-2018 05:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13907855)
I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?



Two nickels don’t equal a dime. Pay hill.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

O.city 11-21-2018 07:15 AM

I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar.

It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace

Why Not? 11-21-2018 07:17 AM

You pay Hill. Period. If he gets hurt, you shake your head and hope your stud QB can help elevate the practice squad guy that gets called up but, under no circumstance should Tyreek Hill play a snap for another team until he is past 30, at the least.

Amnorix 11-21-2018 07:58 AM

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

kccrow 11-21-2018 08:00 AM

I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

Red Dawg 11-21-2018 08:05 AM

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

Flying High D 11-21-2018 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13907841)
So is OBJ. And they have 2 mother****ing wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull Haglund deformity away from $20M per on the bench.

FYP

BigRedChief 11-21-2018 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcpasco (Post 13907830)
2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.

We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Following year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady had to for most of his years.

BigRedChief 11-21-2018 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dawg (Post 13908000)
Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

Core of Hill/Hunt/Kelce/Mahomes is locked in for 2019 and 2020. Watkins is only for 2019.

RunKC 11-21-2018 08:25 AM

Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13908012)
We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Folloeing year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady has to for most of his years.

Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now but I don’t think it will ever be a bad group necessarily. Even with NE, Tom has always had a few good pass catchers as long as they didn’t get hurt.

Idk, I like Veach and even though he hasn’t been perfect (no GM is), I love that he seems to be so methodical and detailed. I think he eats, sleeps, and breathes stuff like this that we’re talking about. I think he is a great talent evaluator, and a guy who has an ever evolving plan at all times. Wbf with he and Reid leading the charge.

Marcellus 11-21-2018 08:30 AM

We can afford to pay Hill and Mahomes and one defensive guy.

I mean you do have to pay someone and the argument to not pay Hill is INSANE, he is as rare a talent as Mahomes.

BigRedChief 11-21-2018 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13908019)
Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now

I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13908043)
I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

That’s the beautiful thing about where we are right now. We’re likely going to see the Chiefs built to win in several different ways around Mahomes, and we’ll just see what works best. Right now it’s elite offense around him with a study front four, in 4-5 years it might be lobsided toward defense altogether, or maybe they end up with a balance of just good on both sides of the ball. That cap money is going to be spread somehow around Mahomes and I don’t know where, but I don’t expect us to be far from the cap ceiling ever.

shitgoose 11-21-2018 08:48 AM

The case for Hill is that he hasn't even fully tapped his potential as a WR. Plus, I've never seen a guy who can sustain the level of play that he does for an entire game. His conditioning is remarkable.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 08:50 AM

Yeah. I said in the OP the WR group is the one that looked the most promising. And Hill is probably the guy that is the most likely to be a legit elite talent not a flash in the pan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 13907991)
I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

Coincidentally Belichick hasn’t paid WRs top money as far as I know. Moss and Stalworth were on criminally small contracts and the short white guy crew isn’t making big money.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 13907994)
I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

Good post. Hadn’t seen those numbers on pass rush before.

wazu 11-21-2018 08:52 AM

Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 13908017)
Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

Agreed. That’s what I’m saying is those guys might need to walk. But Veach is under a bunch of stress now to find dudes that can play with no cap space because the 2 giant ass contracts we have are ****ing us.

notorious 11-21-2018 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wazu (Post 13908067)
Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.

I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

jaa1025 11-21-2018 09:00 AM

Hill should be the #1 priority this off season. I'd sign him to his second contract but not a 3rd contract. I'd also sign Chris Jones. I think the only way to play defense now is to rush the passer with ball hawking DB's and the new lean Chris Jones is becoming one of the best on the DL in the league.

They don't want to wait till next year for either of them.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 13907963)
I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar.

It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace

A more succinct metaphor is two bills don’t always equal $100.

Math people! :D

Buehler445 11-21-2018 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious (Post 13908072)
I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

I’d wager Kelce is on his last contract with KC. He’s making big money now, has concussions, and will be on the downside when his contract expires.

wazu 11-21-2018 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious (Post 13908072)
I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

I’d love to add a few years for Kelce. He’ll be 32, so want to make sure he doesn’t start to break down, but he seems like he could be one of those guys that plays late into his 30s at a high level.

notorious 11-21-2018 09:04 AM

I will take a reduction in offense if we can balance the team.

Can you accept a reduction in offense if it means getting 2 really good players on defense?

Buehler445 11-21-2018 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaa1025 (Post 13908079)
Hill should be the #1 priority this off season. I'd sign him to his second contract but not a 3rd contract. I'd also sign Chris Jones. I think the only way to play defense now is to rush the passer with ball hawking DB's and the new lean Chris Jones is becoming one of the best on the DL in the league.

They don't want to wait till next year for either of them.

Chris Jones is a prime example of what I’m talking about. He’s had a lot of games where he disappears. I get where we are all coming from given our luck with DL but I don’t see the value there. I say that as he has a pretty ridiculous Sack streak on so I’m open to the idea that I may be full of shit.

But if he wants Donald money he needs to get it elsewhere IMO.

notorious 11-21-2018 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13908083)
I’d wager Kelce is on his last contract with KC. He’s making big money now, has concussions, and will be on the downside when his contract expires.

Yeah, I was on the fence a little with Kelce. His style of play lends that he will end up on the cart eventually.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 09:11 AM

I think if you tag Ford next year and he replicates what he has done this season so far, you may go ahead and replace Houston’s contract with a new one for him.

But idk if it will be financially feasible at that point or not.

RunKC 11-21-2018 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13908096)
I think if you tag Ford next year and he replicates what he has done this season so far, you may go ahead and replace Houston’s contract with a new one for him.

I think Chris Jones is getting Houston’s money, but I hope they can make it work.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 09:15 AM

This whole conversation really makes you appreciate the roster we currently have. Window is wide open.

Gravedigger 11-21-2018 09:19 AM

Franchise Ford. Pay Jones. Pay Hill. Cut Houston, or renegotiate way down. Cut Berry, or settle through a buyout. Focus on Defense and Oline in the draft.

Amnorix 11-21-2018 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13908063)
Coincidentally Belichick hasn’t paid WRs top money as far as I know. Moss and Stalworth were on criminally small contracts and the short white guy crew isn’t making big money.


BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while.

Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket.

And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago.

I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula.

Amnorix 11-21-2018 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13908100)
This whole conversation really makes you appreciate the roster we currently have. Window is wide open.


ESPECIALLY while Mahomes is dramatically underpaid. That's alot of spare cheddah to throw around to do things precisely like extend Hill or bring in someone that you think fits a key need.

RunKC 11-21-2018 09:35 AM

Something else to keep in mind is paying our defensive guys and nobody on offense outside of Tyreek/Mahomes.

Look at all the talent Andy is able to find through the draft since he became a coach?

Brian Westbrook
DeSean Jackson
Brett Celek
Jeremy Maclin
DeSean Jackson
Donovan McNabb
Jason Kelce
Travis Kelce
Kareem Hunt
Tyreek Hill
LDT

Also a few steals for production like Albert Wilson and Zach Fulton.

Morse and LDT are out and we are fine this year. Coincidence? I think Andy will keep talent on the offense at a low price. It’s the defense that has been worrisome.

BigRedChief 11-21-2018 09:36 AM

Man, I’m getting tired of saying this but it has to be said again.......

the Chiefs have an option year in 2021 to keep Mahomes on his rookie contract. It was a 5 year contract if the Chiefs want that option year.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13908138)
Man, I’m getting tired of saying this but it has to be said again.......

the Chiefs have an option year in 2021 to keep Mahomes on his rookie contract. It was a 5 year contract if the Chiefs want that option year.

An option that will still probably put his cap hit around or beyond $20M.

You may as well just extend him as fast as possible. Get ahead of it and pay less.

BigRedChief 11-21-2018 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13908142)
An option that will still probably put his cap hit around or beyond $20M.

You may as well just extend him as fast as possible. Get ahead of it and pay less.

true but that $20million hit is probably going to $40 million by then if he hit the open market.

Reerun_KC 11-21-2018 09:52 AM

Did you take into account the emotional attachment from the fans?

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13908147)
true but that $20million hit is probably going to $40 million by then if he hit the open market.

Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.

IowaHawkeyeChief 11-21-2018 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13908157)
Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.


Is his girlfriend a supermodel that makes $140 million a year? :hmmm:

We at least need to get Mahomes brand selling which helps skirt the cap and income... You know TB12 is sold inside Gillette,..

Chiefnj2 11-21-2018 10:01 AM

There is no right or wrong way to build and pay for your team. Everyone wants to chase the latest trend, but there really isn't any (other than QB's get paid).

Last 3 Super Bowl teams and 3 largest cap hits

Eagles - Jeffrey, WR(10.7M), Johnson, RT (9.8M), Cox, DT (9.4)
Pats - Brady (14), Solder, LT (11.1), McCourty, CB (10.9)

Pats - Brady (13.7), Solder, LT (10.3), Hightower, LB (7.7)
Falcons - Ryan (23.7), Jones (15.9), Jackson, DE (6.35 - thanks Pioli)

Broncos - Manning (17.5), Thomas (13.2), Clady, LT (10.6)
Panthers - Johnson, DE (20), Newton (13), Kalil, C (11.8)

RunKC 11-21-2018 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13908157)
Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.

Man I’m wondering what the QB landscape will look like now that Cousins changed it.

Fully guaranteed contracts might be the new thing in the NFL.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC (Post 13908154)
Did you take into account the emotional attachment from the fans?

Well this line of thinking started from my assumption that you pay the homegrown guys.

Then Mac459 texted me the edge list and where we thought Ford fit in. YIKES. Then I went down a rabbit hole.

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 13908169)
Man I’m wondering what the QB landscape will look like now that Cousins changed it.

Fully guaranteed contracts might be the new thing in the NFL.

New CBA is coming up too right around when Mahomes is due for an extension.

I would LOVE to see the league go to fully guaranteed contracts that make deals 2-3 years more common. If we had that with Berry right now, it’d be awesome.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2 (Post 13908164)
There is no right or wrong way to build and pay for your team. Everyone wants to chase the latest trend, but there really isn't any (other than QB's get paid).

Last 3 Super Bowl teams and 3 largest cap hits

Eagles - Jeffrey, WR(10.7M), Johnson, RT (9.8M), Cox, DT (9.4)
Pats - Brady (14), Solder, LT (11.1), McCourty, CB (10.9)

Pats - Brady (13.7), Solder, LT (10.3), Hightower, LB (7.7)
Falcons - Ryan (23.7), Jones (15.9), Jackson, DE (6.35 - thanks Pioli)

Broncos - Manning (17.5), Thomas (13.2), Clady, LT (10.6)
Panthers - Johnson, DE (20), Newton (13), Kalil, C (11.8)

Good info. Thanks.

Brady At 14M. Christ. Hopefully Clark does the same sweetheart deal for Pat.

O.city 11-21-2018 10:13 AM

I'm guessing we end up with a decently long lockout when the CBA expires.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 13908178)
New CBA is coming up too right around when Mahomes is due for an extension.

I would LOVE to see the league go to fully guaranteed contracts that make deals 2-3 years more common. If we had that with Berry right now, it’d be awesome.

Someone on here suggested cap% contracts for QBs. I’d be down with that. Then there is no quibbling over gurantees and shit.

loochy 11-21-2018 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 13907991)
I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

+1 This is the best take. The Mahomes/Hill/Kelce trio is synergistic and it's what makes the O work. Take a leg from the tripod and it falls over. Get Hunt and Mahomes done long-term ASAP while they're cheap (relatively). That's a risk I'd definitely take. A decent RB can be had in the draft, so adios Hunt (I do love you though). Berry - gone, Houston - gone (or cheap, which I doubt), keep Jones....that's a good amount of money to work with, especially considering the ever-inflating salary cap.
Posted via Mobile Device

Buehler445 11-21-2018 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 13908115)
BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while.

Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket.

And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago.

I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula.

To be fair the Patriots molded the modern NFL with that Moss jagernaut. And they didn’t think it was worth the money then. When everyone else was still thinking Larry ****ing Johnson was the franchise piece.

Easy 6 11-21-2018 10:58 AM

I cant buy any kind of Hill/OBJ comparisons, OBJ doesnt have the same level of drive and commitment to his craft as Hill does, in my estimation

Then of course we can always point to what a turd OBJ has apparently been behind the scenes... something thats never been a problem for Hill

oldman 11-21-2018 11:08 AM

As I see it, the musts on the offense are Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce, with Hunt almost in that group.We're good with Watkins for 2 more years and WR #-3-6 are pretty much mix and match, so let's start looking at the O-line. We're going to need both Ts in a couple years, a LG and C. I'm not sure we don't have a couple of those guys under contract right now a a friendly price. Lots of Big 10 talent out there this spring.
On the other side of the ball, Jones is the only one I see we must have. Ford is playing for a contract, period. I just don't see him as a long-term solution. Franchise him if we have to. We're stuck with the Houston contract, so let's get Speaks in there more. I think I'm semi-OK with our ILB situation. Our secondary needs help, especially at the S position. Berry's contract, as it stands now, is a boat anchor. I just can't justify pumping a lot of cash into another big name S when we have some question marks like Lucas and Watts already on the payroll and Berry maybe giving us a couple more years.

Buehler445 11-21-2018 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6 (Post 13908267)
I cant buy any kind of Hill/OBJ comparisons, OBJ doesnt have the same level of drive and commitment to his craft as Hill does, in my estimation

Then of course we can always point to what a turd OBJ has apparently been behind the scenes... something thats never been a problem for Hill

He was a BIGGER turd before they gave him the big money.

And try hard doesn’t account for much in terms of production. Part of the reason OBJ hasn’t improved as much as Hill is because Hill was a RB. The poster that brought up locking him up BEFORE he reaches his zenith is valid.

But let’s be real here. I want to **** punt OBJ as much as the next guy. I think he’s a piece of shit that if we had that contract out I’d be concerned about him going off the rails TO style. All that being said, the talent is there. He has scored an absurd amount of TDs off slant patterns. He’s good down field but he got that jack because he is (or maybe was - I’m not watching those abortions of Giants game) unguardable in the short game. That short area quickness and top end speed - even if it isn’t hill speed is nuts. The talent is legit and the production was there. He earned the contract. But that doesnt mean the giants should have paid it.

Simply Red 11-21-2018 11:19 AM

Scandrick will be gone - he gets exposed against great receivers, he's serviceable, otherwise. He will get a job, but I don't want to keep him. (& to be fair, I like him okay)

Sammy will be gone after next season, no way around that, I don't think.

O.city 11-21-2018 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13908317)
He was a BIGGER turd before they gave him the big money.

And try hard doesn’t account for much in terms of production. Part of the reason OBJ hasn’t improved as much as Hill is because Hill was a RB. The poster that brought up locking him up BEFORE he reaches his zenith is valid.

But let’s be real here. I want to **** punt OBJ as much as the next guy. I think he’s a piece of shit that if we had that contract out I’d be concerned about him going off the rails TO style. All that being said, the talent is there. He has scored an absurd amount of TDs off slant patterns. He’s good down field but he got that jack because he is (or maybe was - I’m not watching those abortions of Giants game) unguardable in the short game. That short area quickness and top end speed - even if it isn’t hill speed is nuts. The talent is legit and the production was there. He earned the contract. But that doesnt mean the giants should have paid it.

He's also playing with washed ass Eli.

As much as I love Tyreek, he's playing with a QB that literally might have a cannon attached to his right arm. You couldn't really design a better QB to play to Hills strengths

Easy 6 11-21-2018 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 13908317)
He was a BIGGER turd before they gave him the big money.

And try hard doesn’t account for much in terms of production. Part of the reason OBJ hasn’t improved as much as Hill is because Hill was a RB. The poster that brought up locking him up BEFORE he reaches his zenith is valid.

But let’s be real here. I want to **** punt OBJ as much as the next guy. I think he’s a piece of shit that if we had that contract out I’d be concerned about him going off the rails TO style. All that being said, the talent is there. He has scored an absurd amount of TDs off slant patterns. He’s good down field but he got that jack because he is (or maybe was - I’m not watching those abortions of Giants game) unguardable in the short game. That short area quickness and top end speed - even if it isn’t hill speed is nuts. The talent is legit and the production was there. He earned the contract. But that doesnt mean the giants should have paid it.

Not long after they paid him, during the Giants early struggles, he went behind his teams back to the press questioning whether or not he should've come back to NY

Calling out Eli, his coaches etc... they'd just given him a bajillion dollars, and that was the thanks they got, it was ridiculous

He surely has talent, but I'd still say he doesnt have the same level of dedication, or team first attitude as Hill

pugsnotdrugs19 11-21-2018 11:45 AM

Idk fellas, this stuff is all fun to talk about but at the end of the day it’s out of our control and we’ve got a great season rolling.

We’ve got one of the most explosive offenses the league has ever seen, and we can rush the passer with the front four as good as anybody. It’s a great, great combination to have.

This could finally be the year.


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