Mock (9/19)
 

Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs finish 12-4, win the AFC West, and secure the 1st overall seed. They host the Raiders and manage to fend them off for a trip to the AFCCG, where they defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lose the Super Bowl to the Seahawks. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach stay on, and QB Alex Smith is retained.

2. OLB Tamba Hali retires.

3. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 3 years, $55m ($20m guaranteed), DE Allen Bailey 4 years, $30m ($15m guaranteed), ILB Derrick Johnson 3 years, $15m ($7m guaranteed), and CB Terrance Mitchell 3 years, $18m ($7m guaranteed). These extensions allow the Chiefs to back-end much of the cap hits, and frees up roughly $20m in cap space.

4. The Chiefs sign K Cairo Santos for 4 years, $11m ($4m guaranteed).

5. The Chiefs tender NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, ILB Ramik Wilson.

6. The Chiefs sign QB Tyler Bray, RB Akeem Hunt, FB Anthony Sherman, OL Jordan Devey, NT Roy Miller, DE Jarvis Jenkins, ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis to minimal deals.

7. The Chiefs let walk WR Albert Wilson, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OL Zach Fulton, NT Benny Logan, ILB Terrance Smith, CB Phillip Gaines, CB Kenneth Acker, P Dustin Colquitt.

8. The Chiefs sign DE Kyle Williams (Bills) for 2 years, $10m ($2m guaranteed).

9. The Chiefs are picking 31st, and have one compensatory pick (a 6th) for QB Nick Foles. They have three conditionals: a 6th for OT Isaiah Battle, a 7th for DE David King, and a 7th for CB Marcus Cooper.

The draft:

2. WR Deon Cain, Clemson
The Chiefs trade their 2nd, one of their 6ths, and a 2019 5th to move up to the middle of the 2nd round.

Yeah, we all know Veach is going to deal as many of those late rounders as possible. The team doesn't have that many roster spots open, and one of the things they are going to need is more talent downfield for Smith/Mahomes in the coming years. Cain is a perfect match for both QBs: he has a very fast first step that will endear him to Smith's brand of getting open quickly, and a ridiculous catching radius that will endear him to the creative playmaking of Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs let Albert Wilson walk this offseason, and Cain can compete with Chesson and Robinson for the 3rd WR reps.

3. CB Brandon Facyson, Virginia Tech

What did Veach/Dorsey do? They reached out for players with elite measurables over and over again and depend on Reid's outstanding coaching staff to develop them. You can't do much better than a 6'1" CB with outstanding speed. Facyson has some problems with his game, but the Chiefs desperately need a 4th CB who can start on the outside in a pinch. Phillip Gaines was their last attempt at a 3rd rounder to fill this role; Facyson is the next.

4. CB Duke Dawson, Florida

The Chiefs also desperately need more talent at nickel, as Steven Nelson has proven adept but insurance is always necessary. Dawson is an eye opening player at times, with some huge hits and tons of flexibility all over the backfield. I really enjoy watching this kid.

More importantly, with the addition of Facyson and Dawson, the Chiefs have potentially the deepest secondary in the NFL: Peters, Mitchell, Nelson, Facyson, and Dawson are all under contract for 2018 and 2019 at LEAST.

5. DE Darian Roseboro, North Carolina State
The Chiefs trade one of their 6ths and both of their 7ths to move into the 5th round.

Roseboro fits the Nunez-Roches profile: incredible athlete with great motor, as NC State prospects usually are. What's needed here in some elite level coaching, which Britt Reid provides.

6 (Nick Foles). P Johnny Townsend, Florida

With Colquitt on the outs, it's time for the Chiefs to make a move here with with one 6th they didn't package into a trade.

roster:

QB: Smith, Mahomes, Bray
RB: Hunt, Ware, West, Hunt
FB: Sherman

WR: Hill, Conley, Cain, Robinson, Chesson
TE: Kelce, Harris, Travis

LT: Fisher, Erving
LG: Ehinger, Witzmann
C: Morse, Devey
RG: Duvarney-Tardif, Witzmann
RT: Schwartz, Erving

DE: Jones, Jenkins, Roseboro
NT: Nunez-Roches, Miller
DE: Bailey, Williams

OLB: Ford, Kpassagnon
ILB: Ragland, Wilson
ILB: Johnson, Eligwe, Pierre-Louis
OLB: Houston, Zombo

CB: Peters, Mitchell, Nelson, Facyson, Dawson
S: Berry, Parker, Sorensen, Murray, McQuay

K: Santos
P: Townsend
LS: Winchester

35 year old Kyle Williams?

LMAO

Trading up in the 2nd round for a THIRD WR?

ROFL

That is accurate. That Kyle Williams.

2018 is the last year on Conley's contract, Cain gives the Chiefs an option. Hell Cain might not even get that much playing time in 2018 if Robinson and/or Chesson develop. The Chiefs don't mind developing a player they have a ton of faith in.

The Chiefs aren't going older.

Good grief.

If Conley has a 600-800 yard season, he'll be re-signed because he's an excellent blocker.

The core is in place. Williams is a rotational guy here.

Woof

Wet fart sound.

Good Lord....why would the Chiefs put that much of a cap hit on the back end?

3 more years of Smith? If they were gonna do that, there was no reason to trade up for Mahomes.

Epic Fail.

Look, we are either going to trade Smith, or let him stick around for his final year. The idea of extending him is just silly now that Mahomes is here.

What we are attempting is really what Seattle did when they struck gold with Wilson. You have five years with a steeply discounted QB. That cheap QB allows us to pay guys like Peters, Berry, and Houston. I think you are fooling yourself if you think Mahomes sits for two whole years. Year two he will have a vet oline, young stud RB, stud TE, dynamic deep threat in Hill. Oh and everything we have on defense. Guys, now is the time. There will never be a better time to hand the keys over to a talented dynamic QB.

They had better trade Mahomes before a Smith extension is announced to maximize his value.

Go back to the drawing board D. Start with the Alex Smith decision and work from there.

Oh, that and Deon Cain is probably a top 20 pick.

I should maybe recant on Cain being top-20, although I do think he's 1st round if he runs well. He doesn't have great stat lines, but he can get deep, is elusive, and has great hands.


I really wish there were a way to get into the top 20 though, for Tyquan Lewis. Kid is gonna be purrdy good.

I have to agree with kccrow on this one, Direckshun. Any mock that begins with the assumption that we would not only keep Alex but EXTEND him is absolutely senseless.

That's too much money tied up that could be put to far better uses for this team when the future of Kansas City quarterbacking is just sitting there on the ****ing bench.

Mahomes is smart. He's not a butt****ing moron like Tyler Bray. Andy Reid has confirmed just as much. Yeah, it takes that four years to MASTER his playbooks, but it's not like Mahomes can only run 25% of the plays just because he's been integrated in the system for a year.

One year is plenty of time for him to have achieved a suitable understanding of NFL timing and operations within the offense. No, he won't be nearly as proficient as Alex in year 2, but he's not going to be drowning out there by any means. Plus an entire year is a lot of time for him to have picked up tips and refined his instincts to not be such a crazy nutcase out there always rolling out and not protecting himself as a passer or a ball carrier in certain circumstances.

A downgrade in the short term is NOT a good reason to flush $20 million down the toilet and waste the current affordability of our QBOTF.

An Alex Smith extension makes zero sense no matter HOW good he plays. Not even a Super Bowl victory is a good enough reason to keep him around.

**** you.

If Alex Smith takes us to the Super Bowl, he's a Chief in 2018. It's probably that simple.

If that's the case, we've got no cap space. Cutting Hali doesn't save us enough to keep the players we want to keep, and I don't want to cut DJ.

So you can extend Bailey (which lowers his cap hit in 2018), extend DJ some so his cap hit in 2018 goes down, Terrance Mitchell won't cost that much in 2018...

But Alex Smith is still going to price us out. So if you extend him this offseason, his cap hit drops dramatically in 2018, and you can sign him for a deal that STILL makes him trade worthy in 2019.

So, yes, I'm doing a little mad scientist shit here. I'm extending my Super Bowl QB so I can trade him in 2019. Outside the box thinking that probably would never fly, but that's never stopped me before.

Only way Smith stays is if he wins the Super Bowl....getting there and having a shitty Alex performance and losing will not be enough to justify keeping him.

If we win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith....then you ****ing fleece another team by trading him. You don't ****ing extend him and lose out on the positives that come with drafting a 1st round rookie QB. EVEN if you want to keep him.....then you keep him on his current contract and make him battle Mahomes in TC for the starting job. FFS.....extending Alex Smith would be monumentally stupid.

If you win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith, then you keep Alex Smith.

If you have nothing behind him....then yes. We have Mahomes. You thank Smith for everything he's done and then help him decide where he wants to live next. You don't ****ing extend him for 5 more years and let your young QB rot on the bench.

We will still have Mahomes.

What we're going to do is win a second Super Bowl in a row (ostensibly). You don't do that by trading off the guy that just won you one.

If they had any plan but to dump Alex at the end of the season than they had no business trading all that draft capital for a QB and a lot of that Super Bowl era roster is blown up to keep him.

It doesn't make any sense.

The only point in drafting a QB that early in the draft is to be as a starter while his cap hit is almost consequential compared to a starter.

If Smith starts beyond 2018 then Dorsey and Reid royally ****ed up their draft capital for maybe two years of cheap QB salary.

That's an awful, awful, awful trade; this isn't 2005 and Alex Smith isn't Brett Favre.

Let's say the Chiefs win a Super Bowl with Alex.

In 2018, would you rather have:

A. More Alex

B. An extension for Peters and Morse and perhaps a shiny new free agent somewhere. Oh, and Mahomes is your starting QB.

Sorry buddy, but no way.

Where did you come up with any of that?

I mean, almost everything is way off imo. (Which isn't worth a whole lot)

FYP.

I'm not for making personnel decisions that justify draft picks.

I'm making personnel decisions that give the team its best chance to win a Super Bowl.

We don't have to extend any of those players this offseason.

But the time will come when we do have to keep those players (and hopefully Bennie Logan) and Alex will have to go.

If we go to the Super Bowl, which again, is what I'm projecting in the OP, you bring back the QB that took you there.

I'm tinkering and experimenting. It's what I do.

And you can't really let them all hit free agency the same year.

There's no scenario where you keep smith after this season that works out

Just like the Ravens HAD to pay Flacco huge money....

I'm with Pestilence on this one. It would be awesome if Alex won a Super Bowl on his way out, and I can imagine a number of teams willing to pay a steap price for his services in trade compensation and contract (which he would deserve).

The problem with the "Keep Alex" movement is that we are not hypothesizing about drafting a Qb of the future in KC, he's here and looks good. And the upside to drafting a QB is their rookie contract where you can get great play at the position and a ridiculous price, which allows you to keep other pieces in place, you know guys like Peters, Hill, Kelce, maybe Dee Ford, and eventually Chris Jones.

The decision that will be made is a financial one, not an emotional one.

Lets be honest here, Alex is a good QB, but this is not a choice like San Diago had between Rivers and Brees.

Extending Smith is about more than just next year.

Shit, if you want to keep him, them keep him, no need to extend him. Its not like we need a ton of cap room next year.

That's moon logic. Hanging onto a QB in his mid 30's, and having to grenade the roster to do it, is not giving the franchise its best chance to win a Super Bowl.

The best chance is to let the guy you aggressively went after to get take over the team. You heard of long-term success?

Some of you ****ers need to learn how to let things go.

Extending him would lower his cap hit in 2018.

While I agree the primary problem with keeping Smith is that it risks grenade-ing the roster, I think my OP does its best to avoid doing that.

We're still strong everywhere, but a bit thinner along the DL. Matter of fact, the roster gets stronger at RB, WR, at the secondary.

Extending him also is an albatross that hurts our cap situation for years to come.

It has been proven that Alex is not the type of QB that can win with lessor talent....so the concept of keeping Alex and letting talent walk because of the cap makes no sense, whether he wins a playoff game or not.

Keeping Alex destroys the roster, plain and simple. Can't afford it.

The issue is you're kicking the can down the road and eventually the Chiefs have to pay the toll.

All the back-loaded deals will make things tight for a Peters and Morse extension and you can't backload those deals and a Chris.Jones deal etc because eventually the cap is going to stop growing at record pace every year.

They have to rip off the bandaid eventually and your plan is a ticking time bomb.

That's a legitimate criticism.

However, if I believe this team can win a Super Bowl in 2018, I don't care. I'll kick the can down the road if it gives me a 2nd straight trip to the Super Bowl.

I'm not quite sure this team I've assembled in the OP can, but I'm kinda sure it can.

And meanwhile, you extended Alex. When does he ****ing leave? The year before we have to decide on Mahomes' option? When HE'S going to need a new contract? And he's going to want starter's money for having played jack ****ing shit games?

Don't Brock Osweiler our QB, please. You do that shit to 4th round QBs. You DON'T do that to QBs who cost you an extra 1st and 3rd to acquire.

The sooner Alex gets his ass out of here the ****ing better. Ravens did it to Dilfer. Bucs did it to Brad Johnson. We need to do the same to Alex should we be as fortunate as them to win the big one.

Guess we will wait and see. Two things can happen...

1) Alex haters kill themselves in droves if he is extended...

2) Chiefs fans cheer their next Quaterback regardless of who is under center...

Either way will be awesome.

If the Chiefs extend Alex Smith, I will go full Clay. I'll root for the team to crash and ****ing burn. Extending Alex would be front office stupidity I have not seen in Kansas City since Scott Pioli was here. Veach would deserve to be run out of town in the most embarrassing way possible for the albatross he would place over this team's neck.

We were told Brett Veach would manage the cap situation better than his predecessor. If he extends Alex, that's not managing the cap. That's HAMSTRINGING the cap. Given the money we'll have to pay to Alex as well as how we'll be forced to handle Patrick Mahomes' new contract on very little information, that's a decision that would have FAR worse outcomes for this team than Dorsey's 3 worst contracts COMBINED.

It would be bad and unnecessary in the short term. It would have the potential to be HORRENDOUS and franchise-killing in the long term. Those are the risks. What is the reward? What do we get out of it? The chance to go for another Super Bowl with Alex ****ing Smith as our QB? That's the ****ing payoff?

It's about time to start looking for another team to bandwagon.

KC will go full dipshit when it comes to deciding which QB to go with next year. I guarantee it.

They'll extend Smith and Mahomes will demand a contract that the Chiefs can't pay because they'll have to backload a bunch of guys to accommodate Smith's contract.

You are the biggest negative dipshit on this forum by a wide, wide margin.

I probably start shopping him the first year he doesn't take us to the Super Bowl. There's some wiggle room on that declaration but overall I'm dead serious.

I'm keeping him so long as he's taking us to Super Bowls.

If he can't win the Super Bowl, no point in keeping him. Just getting there is not enough given the price you are paying.

If the price for winning the Super Bowl is Alex finishing his contract, then that is a price I am willing to pay. It is not a price I am willing to pay if he is gonna show up in the Super Bowl, play Alex football and lose.

Through 2 weeks of this season, we have one Alex Super Star game, and one Alex Game Manager mediocre game.....not enough evidence yet to support that we are going to get Alex Super Star on a consistent basis.

Your next take on this forum that isn't blatant homerism will be your first.

Shop him for what at that point? A bag of balls and a used condom?

We've seen 38 year old QBs that suck get paid in the NFL in the last 12 months alone.

Someone will pay for Alex Smith.

They aren't trading for a QB in his later 30's.

So say some.

Name some traded QB's that were 35+ and not a slam dunk future HoFer. When you name those guys, list the return haul.

The problem is that it's an art, not a science. You're dealing with human talents and they are not always easily categorized.

It's not common, but it's not unheardof for a team that feels like they can win a Super Bowl now to make some aggressive moves in order to win.

I think yesterday's performance can put all of the extension and keeping Alex on the roster talk to bed.

Time to go back to the mock drawing board. Alex is not on this team next year.

I have no ****ing idea what you're talking about.

Teams are reluctant to trade for old QB's that can bottom out on the physical ability at any time. There's a major difference between 34 years old and 36.

That's fair.

You guys are too paranoid. Alex isn't being extended and the only reason Mahomes isn't playing right now is because he's a rookie. I mean come on now. Andy himself wanted Mahomes.

Andy knows that Alex can't get it done. he wouldn't have drafted Mahomes if he didn't think that.

But honestly, if we win the SB with Alex this year, they can start the Mahomes era in 2019 for all I care. As long as we win the damn thing.

I think 2017 being it for Alex is as close of a slamdunk as there is, so I don't see paranoia.

It's just bizarre that there's an actual hivemind of not only keeping Captain Average, but giving him an extension. Seriously lol'n

Only Chiefs fans would die on a hill of total mediocrity

Are you kidding me, Bryan? Are you seriously kidding me?

You've been a member of ChiefsPlanet for 11 years, and you're accusing me of being an Alex Smith homer?

You've been on this board for 11 years. You know better.

You're carrying his water, so.....

So THEREFORE I've been a True Fan Alexsexual since 2013?

Son, have you been paying attention? Plug in if you're going to make broad generalizations about my stances on the Kansas City Chiefs. I've got no shortage of posts over the past half-decade to the contrary.

It's a mock, brother. I tinker and play with different ideas.

Disliking and debating an idea is perfectly fine -- encouraged, even. Calling me an Alex Smith apologist is just completely ignorant shit that undercuts some of the on point observations you've made throughout the thread.

Where did I say since 2013?

ROFL. If calling you a dipshit for guaranteeing Alex is the starter for the next 5 years makes me a homer, I'll proudly wear that moniker.

I've said all along Smith will get a 3 year extension. Can you imagine having Mahomes unproven as starter with only Bray as backup.We will extend Smiff 3 years and he will most likely start 2018 and we will eas Mahomes in the end of 18. Then Smith may be traded.