*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***
 

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Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

In.

In for the win.

Zobrist is a must, IMO.
Gordon would be nice.
The pitching will likely come from within and second-tier extreme fly-ball guys.

LET'S DO THIS!

In for dynasty mode.

Oh, and **** the competitive balance draft. Bunch of fixed horse****.

:)

Do aces matter?

Aww, yeah! Nice OP to look at for the next several months, Duncan. :)

See the 2014 World Series. Even Cueto in the games he was on (ALDS Game 5 and WS Game 2) were bullpen savers and I think the also build confidence in the rest of the team.

I mean... Cueto was nice :)

Who will be our manager in 2016?

What about Justin Upton? I know he is FA this year.

If Ned retires?

I'd think there's a strong possibility it is either Raul Ibanez or Jason Kendall.

Kendall would make me a little nervous, as I think he's pretty old-school, and he's such a red-ass, I don't know how it would translate. Also, he has no experience managing a team.

Ibanez was a hot candidate last year and has a great rep as a leader and is someone who could conceivably maintain that strong clubhouse feel Yost has successfully built.

Not sure who else is out there.

Yost indicated several times this season that he wants to get to 1,000 overall wins. He should get there easily next season, so I think it's relatively safe to assume he'll be back for at least one more year (with the core of this team being mostly intact until 2017, he might be talked into another as well).

I don't think he's as good as Gordon overall, but he is younger, and hits more homeruns.

Not sure he fits what KC typically tries to do, either, as he is not a great defensive guy and strikes out a ton.

What are the odds we open the season with a triple digit YV fast ball in the ribs?

This is where I am with him as well. I do wonder about guys like him if he gets in this Royals locker room where it does seem people don't **** around with any sort of crap. I also wonder if there was some laziness in San Diego with him, knowing he wasn't winning shit there. Also Heyward out of St. Louis.

Man.... I love baseball offseason starting in October/Novembers instead of May/June.

I can get used to that.

I think Kendall would be a poor fit for this team. Ibanez is interesting. I still think Rusty Kuntz would be a good choice as well.

I don't know that we need 2 corner outfielders. Orlando is as good as Rios, IMO. We either extend Gordon, or we take the money we paid him and Rios and sign a replacement.

Eiland for manager, perhaps?

If Yost leaves this team, I see Dale Sveum stepping in as the replacement. If GMDM retires, I think Picollo takes over.

This team has been exciting for 2+ seasons and I don't see them slowing down.

As for free agency, we should be okay I believe. I read, not long ago actually, that the Royals make about 5-7 million per playoff game. With 8 home games, I'll say we made $48 million in "bonus" money. That doesn't include our attendance boost, which was 33,438, way up over last year's 24,154.
We have Guthrie coming off of the books, as long as we buyout his contract, which will save us $5.8m. I don't think we'll tender an offer to Holland, which is another $8.25m saved. Franklin Morales should be gone, which is $1.85m saved. And Alex Rios being gone will save us $11m.
That's roughly $26m off of the books in addition to the $48m from the playoffs, not including the extra money made during the regular season.
And if Vargas doesn't pitch in 2016, we have a $6m insurance policy on him as well.
This team can easily afford to sign Gordon and Zobrist. I'd personally stay away from Cueto unless you can get him for dirt cheap.

There's so many reasons to be optimistic about this team going forward. I know there's a lot of talk about 2017 and us losing the majority of the core, but I honestly think we'll be okay. I'm excited to see how long we can sustain this success.

I would love Ibanez to replace Yost. Ibanez is the one who got the Royals to believe and turn around their season with his motivational speech in 2014!

Bob Dutton still representing...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Interesting take on &quot;easy&quot; from a point guard who hit 45.7 percent of his free throws in college. <a href="https://t.co/BT11zBJk3Q">https://t.co/BT11zBJk3Q</a></p>&mdash; Bob Dutton (@TNT_Mariners) <a href="https://twitter.com/TNT_Mariners/status/661217271046475777">November 2, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

IN

IN...SO GODDAMN IN...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">139 <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB_PLAYERS">@MLB_PLAYERS</a> become <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FreeAgents?src=hash">#FreeAgents</a> under Article XX B
of the Basic Agreement: <a href="https://t.co/e8ghBrrNdt">https://t.co/e8ghBrrNdt</a></p>&mdash; MLBPA (@MLB_PLAYERS) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB_PLAYERS/status/661256148230782976">November 2, 2015</a></blockquote>
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I'm so ****ing happy for Yost! The shit he went through in Milwaukee now winning a World Series where he was hand picked by GMDM. Who would of thought a few years ago we wanted to kick this guy out of the city and now he's probably going into the Royals hall of fame

I'm so ****ing happy for Yost! The shit he went through in Milwaukee not to winning a World Series where he was hand picked by GMDM. Who would of thought a few years ago we wanted to kick this guy out of the city and now he's probably going into the Royals hall of fame

Does Duffy move back to starter or remain in the bullpen ?

Starting pitching has to get better. I don't feel good about anybody except Volquez.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You can put to bed any rumors about Ned Yost riding off into the sunset just yet. &quot;No way I&#39;m retiring,&quot; he told The Star tonight.</p>&mdash; Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCulloughStar/status/661344398584754176">November 3, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Wow. I figured Ned would go out on top. But having a few more years in this window of winning would be hard to leave.

Yeah, we've got two years left in this window, and Andy wrote a follow up tweet that Yost wants to get to 1000 wins... plus he gets to manage the ASG next year.

Although, Tony LaRussa retired and still managed the ASG the next year.

In it to repeat it.

Duffy was much better out of the BP than he was as a starter.

Duffy will start. You can't ever give up on the flamethrowing lefties

They'll put him back in the rotation, but I don't think you can rely on him for 200 IP. That's why signing a more stable/higher end SP like Leake makes sense to me.

If Duffy doesn't work in the rotation, that could be a big insurance factor.

You have to try him back there, though, because of how effective he was in 2014 and how valuable lefties who throw hard can be.

In.

Cueto pitched like one.

Really though, our starters pitched 31.1 IP, 19 H, 12 ER, 11 BB, 20 K.

The Mets starters: 30 IP, 30 H, 14 ER, 9 BB, 24 K.

Now that includes Young's relief appearance, which may be cheating, but he was part of the postseason rotation group. In general our guys went toe to toe with theirs. Pretty solid.

Offseason 2016: Sustain a Dynasty

Doesnt TB pretty much only pitch starters twice through the lineup and thats it?

He's a mortal lock for the rotation.

What happens to Outfante? Obviously we are stuck with the 16M left, that's not my question - but rather: does he HAVE to start next year to justify what we are paying him? Colon is the prototypical Royal and he was ready to start this year anyway. Would hate to see him blocked.


Would like to see Dyson start in CF and Cain move to RF. Sure seemed like his range declined 2H this year and his bat has enough power to justify a corner OF spot. I'd take every dime avail and give it to Gordon or Zo to play LF.

I would be all about trying to move Infante for a bag of balls if you can get someone to eat 1/2 the contract for you, but not sure that's feasible. If it isn't, he's on the MLB roster and I'm not sure they're willing to bench him.

Dyson in CF with Cain playing right works great against righties... But I'd still like to see a RH bat to protect Dyson vs. lefties.

We gotta keep Gordo and Z-Man. Other than that - we need to find an everyday solution in RF (unless we just platoon Orlando and Dyson - which I'm fine with).

I feel like we should probably rework Salvy's deal to give him a little more $$$.

Other than that - maybe take a shot at signing Hoz and Moose long term?

In it to win it...again.






God DAMN that feels good to say!

As long as they retain Zobrist or Gordon we'll be fine. I trust Moore to find some gems. I still think our core guys have a lot more upside as well. I don't think the Royals will have any problems repeating in the Central. Then the fun begins again :)

Also, Moore and Yost get a lifetime pass from me due to my Championship deprivation The next questionable bullpen decision he makes I'll bite a hole in my lip.

It's a good lesson though. We were all ready to run them out of town last July. They had a plan and stuck to it. A World Championship gives you plenty of rope in my book.

I'd be fine with Orlando in right.

Is there any word on a hometown discount for Gordo?

Hate to say this but I was sorta glad they shut down Holland when they did, who knows how many games hed have blown this Oct esp with our orgs loyalty to guys.

The new HDH was superior to the last: 35 IP 44k 2R. Lemme lemme upgrade

What are the odds of keeping Madson and/or Young?

I've like Orlando better than Rios in right all season long. I keep thinking there must be something I'm missing because he's faster, is a better base runner, makes contact and seems fine defensively.

So what am I missing?

Yeah, they had to shut him down. He was getting lit up.

I do want to see him back in 2 years, just like Hochevar.

I'm guessing several things like experience, contract $, etc.

Either way, I'm just glad it's just a one year contract, not a 2 year.

I would prefer we go "cheap" in right to be able to keep Gordo, Zobrist, Young and Madson. Orlando, Dyson, Eibner, Bubba --- let them compete for the job and may the best man win.

Gomes is here next year, isn't he?

I think he's has a team option for not much money. Not much in baseball terms I mean.

Just back-of-the-napkin here on Gordon. Suppose it's 4/70 and he gets 10 WAR in this manner:

2016: 4*
2017: 3
2018: 2
2019: 1

The FG dollar per WAR was ~$7M this year so 10 wins is right at $70M in value. There may be slight inflation but that's covered by the hometown discount. Gordon can be moved to 1B his last two years after Hoz leaves. And gets us good production in LF the next 2 years of our window.

(*just checked the 2016 Steamer proj which are out now. Gordon projected at 3.9 for 2016 so it does fit in theory)

Why can't you always post good shit like this?

I mean it's valuable and actually insightful.

Thanks. Good post.

Agreed

Steamer has Zobrist at 3.9 too, loves him. Colon at 1.0 full season. The difference between say 85 & 88 wins probably means enough to take the Central again. I am not getting my hopes up because that guy is going to have about 20 suitors.


Need to work on Salvy too.

I wouldn't think so, leave this spot open for some younger talent to come up and hold. Johnny will want to play somewhere next year more often than to get used 1 time per week.

If Gordon would just post Torii Hunter type numbers the next 4 years that'd be a huge win to keep him. He takes such good care of himself I could see it. Torii Hunter posted positive WAR both offensively and defensively most years until he was 37. He had one poor defensive year in there but in total... he was a productive player.

Bob Dole was suggesting that he would address the "2 corner OF" need if necessary.

Which is why Bob Dole asked about Gomes...

IMHO, Johnny's defense is poor, his sole purpose is he feeds off LH pitching and has a positive, professional approach to the locker room. Dyson, Orlando and possibly Bonifacio, Starling and or Eibner ( spelling ) should be able to work the outfield backup positions.

It's called the Johnny bandwagon...... FTR, he gave a charged up speech today!:clap:

Can't work on salvy from what I've read

Looks like he is here next season on the cheap.

I think those are very conservative value estimates for Gordon, whose great defense is more about positioning, making great reads, and controlling extra bases with his arm.

His offensive profile is one that should hold up well, too. Think KC will have to go 5/80-85 to make it happen ( and that's with some home town discount).

I could be wrong but from my perception, it would be a PR nightmare for the Glass family to lose Gordon over a few million per.

The offseason needs IMO:
1. Resign Gordon. Pretty obvious IMO.
2. Which Position Do You Platoon? 2B or RF. Do you invest in Zobrist? Platoon Dyson/Orlando/Gomes. Dyson great OPS against righties, Gomes great OPS against lefties. Or do you go out and get a RF via free agency or trade? Play Colon or gasp Infante. Say you make a play for Puig hypothetically. Puig/Colon or Zobrist/Dyson-Orlando?
3. Starting Pitching - Need to make a run at 3rd/4th starter type. Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, Brett Anderson type.
4. Bullpen Depth - Might lose a couple of the backend pieces. Trust Dayton on that one.

He's also a massive outlier post-PEDs.

Hamas brought it up in another thread and i'd never really correlated the two, but do you think Gordon takes a deal that much less than what Werth took?

Lot of similar players to Gordon in that corner outfielder market. That will drive price down.

Down by 40%?

Infante's contract screws so many potential things this offseason. The question is: Is David Glass willing to go negative to try to compete for a title again next year and bridge the gap to the new TV contract?

Heyward and Upton will get major bucks. Cespedes the next and Gordon behind that.

*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***
 

It's too early to tell, really. I think he would take 80-85 percent of his best deal to stay in KC.

I've seen anything from 4/60 to 5/100 floated for him. If the market stays in that range, I think KC will make him an offer strong enough to keep him in KC.

Not sure the Werth deal will be on the table for him, though it wouldn't surprise me if it was (teams being smarter about recognizing Gordon's value even though he never has hit 30 HR in a season, like Werth had a few times when he signed the Nats deal).

Totally agree. I realize that's an extreme example. I don't know if Gordon would reach those offensive WAR numbers either.

But, Gordon keeps himself in amazing shape. He came back from a severe groin pull quickly. He has the best work ethic on the team too. He's relentless. And as Duncan said he's a smart player too.

I'm curious to see what they do with him. It's not the smartest long term move, but I think him leaving would be a bigger PR hit than many of the other guys. As long as they put a winning team out there that won't matter though.