The way we win...and lose with Andy Reid.
 

I've been disappointed with a lot of the playcalling since Reid took over and mostly for the same reasons most gave, he seemingly ignores the running game wayyy too much and gets locked into calling entirely too many passes at times. That puts a lot of pressure on a developing line as well as the rest of the offense when the team IMO hasn't been built that way.

My intention here is to show the run pass ratios for each game and to draw a correlation between wins and losses and the play calling.

So, here we go.

I'm gonna start with 2013

JX 27rush 34 pass W
Dal 25 rush 36 pass W
Phi 38rush 35 pass W
NYG 28 rush 41pass W
TEN 26 rush 39 pass W
OAK 27rush 31pass W
HOU 32rush 34pass W
CLE 15rush 36 pass W
Buf 23 rush 29 pass W
Den 25rudh 45 pass L
SD 18rush 38pass L
Den 25rush 42pass L
WAS 38rush 23pass W
OAk 24 rush 25pass W
IND 20rush 28pass L
SD 37rush 30pass W (I'm counting this as a win because the refs screwed us)

Average ratio for wins: 28:32
Average ratio for losses: 22:38

On to 2014...

TEN 38:33 L
Den 32:42 L
MIA 42:25 W
NE 38:26 W
SF 20:30 L
SD 39:28 W
sTL 33:29 W
NYJ 24:31 W
BUF 24:29 W
SEA 30:16 W
OAK 24:36 L
DEN 15:23 L
ARI 17:39 L
OAK 27:31 W
PIT 14:46 L
SD 25:34 W

Average ratio for wins: 31:28
Average ratio for losses: 18:36

I mean, I love Andy Reid and all, but when the guy goes pass crazy, we lose.

IMO this is as damning of evidence you can post to show how he needs to hand over play calling duties.

In closing, Jamaal needs more carries.

Shocking but not surprising. You could see the same thing in the Reid zone thread. They only had 3 rushes on 18 plays once within the Cincinnati 30 yard line.

Data is somewhat spurious because teams that are trailing in terms of score -especially as the time remaining diminishes- will pass more frequently than they will run the ball.

Reid just needs to move on from calling the plays and let the OC do that, simple.

He could then devote himself to being a good HC. His play calling and time management sickens me.

The Denver loss was clearly on him and he was out coached horribly. I am convinced that Kubiak told his defense to let the Chiefs score that go ahead TD as it was Denver's best chance and he was sharp enough to make that call.

Nick Athan said that Andy Reid needs to take play calling away from Doug Pederson.

LMAO

This needs to get some play...

This is basically the same thing the Cowboys had when they were losing because they passed too much and once they shifted to a balanced offense last year, they became contenders.

In the 21 wins, KC basically ran a 50:50 split of run to pass and in losses, it went to 1:2.

You can't hide from those numbers...run the ball if you want to win.

2 very important parts to this...

1) Andy needs to bring a lot more running to the offense. Sherman is one of our best players...use him. Charles is a possible hall of fame quality player...use him.

2) When Andy Reid puts the ball in Alex Smiths hands to win a game, Alex let's hiM down consistently.

Reid isn't changing, telling ya right now.

The frenzied nutjobs in philly couldn't do it, theres no reason to think KC can change him.

And when a team is winning and wants to kill the clock they run consistently in garbage time.

That's not to say that the data isn't important (or that I disagree with the OP), but you need to limit the plays to those when the outcome is still being contested.

**** philly we got airplane banners

Smith is the king of garbage time stats. His first 3 quarters suck.

And putting up garbage time numbers doesn't mean he's a good 4th quarter QB. His final drives with a chance to win - he's dog$3it...

So true. He comes alive when the win is firmly out of reach.

I think the "King of Garbage Time Stats" belongs to Tim Tebow, he actually won when the teams went full blown reerun prevent D after 3 quarters. Alex is like Tebows servant that holds the spittoon.

Boom. Both of these. I hate when analysts look at teams and say, "This team wins when they run the ball. In everyone of their wins, they ran the ball more than they passed. And, not surprisingly, in games where they've thrown the ball a lot, they've lost."

Well, no shit, dumbass.

Only throws if they're ahead or behind.

KC throws consistently in the red zone no matter the score. And we suck at it. How often do we start games with three straight passes and a punt?

If Reid was smart enough to run the ball and kill clock when we have a lead we would have beaten the Colts in the playoffs...

Yeah, I should have added that I wasn't taking away from BossChief's point. Reid is a pass happy ****.

Check splits by score differential:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...004_splits.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...010_splits.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...013_splits.htm

My conclusion without looking really closely: Reid needs Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, Brian Westbrook and Jim Johnson to be successful.

It doesn't matter who the OC is Andy Reid is a pass happy coach and wont work well with an OC who doesn't want to pass 2/3 of the time. Andy Reid could give a **** about the run he wouldn't run it all a game if he thought he could. His philosophy is to pass first pass second pass third and if that doesn't work then pass again. He will pass with the lead he will pass if you need one yard to get the first he will pass gas on the sidelines he will tell the OC to call pass plays, doesn't matter who the OC is.

You have got to be kidding. LMAO

In most cases, I'd agree with that.

This isn't one of those.

http://www.scout.com/nfl/chiefs/stor...of-the-offense

2013 -> Chiefs had a decent/good O-line
2014 -> Chiefs have shitty O-line

Last year oline was awful too.

If Pederson really has been calling the plays, then Athan finally has a scoop on his hands.

Turnovers matter. Andy Reid is 21-16 with Kansas City (including playoffs), and his team is 3-10 when losing the turnover battle. Looking even deeper, his team is 4-2 when they break even. This leaves the Chiefs at 14-4 when they generate at least 1 more turnover than their opponents. The only game KC has lost when they've produced 2 or more turnovers than their opponents is the Wild Card debacle against Indianapolis when they posted a +3 mark there. Bottom line, Bob Sutton's defense needs to force turnovers and Reid's offense needs to take care of the ball. So far in 2015, the Chiefs are +2, -4, -1, and -1 respectively in turnover differential, and their record reflects that statistic at 1-3.

I'll keep digging for more answers.

How important is defending the run? Well, Andy Reid's teams have gone 10-13 when giving up 100 yards or more on the ground. Not as bad as one might expect, but its less than a 50/50 chance to win.

How about points for and against? The Chiefs have went 17-7 when they've scored more than 20 points. When they don't score more than 20? 4-9. So, it is important to put at least 20 on the board, and the Chiefs have done so nearly 65% of the time. When KC gives up more than 20 points, they are a staggering 1-14 under Reid's watch. That win was the 56-31 festival in Oakland in 2013. Verdict is if the Chiefs' defense falters, KC virtually has no shot of winning. Obviously the most important statistic is the Chiefs giving up 20 or less points, with a record of 20-2.

A little bit more with tying turnover margin to PF and PA... In the 13 games KC has lost the turnover battle, they have given up more than 20 points 8 times. This is an obvious correlation, that other teams will score more points when you give them the ball, but its important nonetheless. One thing that did stick out is that the Chiefs scored more than 20 points on 6 occasions when they lost the turnover battle. The Chiefs have shown that they can score enough points to win despite losing the turnover battle about half the time but they give up too many about 2/3 of the time. This math says the Chiefs will win 1 out of every 4 games they lose the turnover battle in (28%). Statistically speaking, that's about spot on with their 3/13 mark (23%).

How often does the Chiefs' scoring more than 20 points go hand-in-hand with the defense giving up less than 21? Well, it happened 16 times in 21 wins (76%), so frequently. That also means that the Chiefs offense has scored more than 20 points more frequently when the defense gives up 20 or less points than if the defense gives up more than 20 points. KC's offense, remember, scored more than 20 points in 24 contests. So, 67% (16/24) of the time that the offense scores more than 20 points, it does so when the defense gives up 20 or less. Perhaps KC's best offense is a great defense.

Last 5 games pass:run ratio starting with Pittsburgh in week 7.

32:29
26:32
31:32
25:31
30:27

That's an average pass:ratio of 29:30

We win with defense. We lose with Alex.

Like in the Bills game

That's not entirely true.

Alex Smith has the leagues highest total QBR since week 7.

We have been winning by playing well on both sides of the ball.

IIRC we also have the top scoring offense during that span, too.

3-40-1

Part of the reason the defense has played lights out is because this offense hasn't given them short fields once in the past five weeks.

Shhhhhhhh.....

http://i.imgur.com/5t48E8B.gif

We're 25-16 since he got here and by years end, we might be 30-16.

Since the fraudulent 9-0 start, counting the playoff loss, he's 16-17.

Below average mother****er.

Best team we have since he's been here. Remember we were a 2 win team 3 years ago. We're trending upwards.

If we finish this year on a 10 game win streak, I guess that will be fraudulent, too.

Right?

Yup/Clay

Win a playoff game 17-10 still frauds because of the defense winning it/Clay

What an idiot. You can't take out that 9-0 start just because you don't like the circumstances. You play the teams on your schedule. Look, I don't think Alex is all that. But to dismiss wins just because it doesn't fit your agenda is borderline insanity.

clays a ****ing idiot.

SOMEWHAT?

No win is fraudulent and, while I have come around to your line of thinking that Alex doesn't have the skill set needed to win big games, anyone watching him play the last few weeks has seen him make some really beautiful throws. I don't think it's a question of "if he continues to improve" but if he picks his shots and makes throws like the TDs to Maclin and Kelse last week this team will be fine with him.