OverTheCap.com: Chiefs 2015 Salary Cap Outlook
 

http://overthecap.com/chiefs-2015-salary-cap-outlook/

Estimated 2015 Cap Space: -$1.7M ($140M cap limit)

Roster Overview
Players Under Contract: 67
Pro Bowlers: 4
Unrestricted Free Agents: 14(6 with 50%+ playtime)
Draft Selection: 18

Salary Cap Breakdown
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Free Agents to Re-sign
Justin Houston is a must sign if the Chiefs have any intention of keeping their defense as a strength of team. Houston is a devastating pass rusher that is the best outside linebacker in the NFL. Clay Matthews is the current positional price leader at $13.2 million a season and Houston is a superior player to Matthews even going back to the timeframe in which he signed his contract. He can push the $14 million mark. Kansas City can, and likely will franchise tag him to protect their rights. Kansas City has used the tag on Branden Albert, Tamba Hali, and Dwayne Bowe in three of the last four years so it’s a given they will find a way to use it here. This will be a very difficult negotiation for Kansas City who also failed to seal the deal with Bowe and Albert when tagged. The fact that they failed to get a deal done during the season gives Houston even more negotiating leverage because of the Chiefs cap concerns…The Chiefs have allowed their offensive line to deteriorate due to salary cap concerns, but keeping Rodney Hudson would be wise to begin reversing the trend. He has slowly grown into one of the better players in the NFL at the position which puts him in the $5-6 million dollar man club with potential to earn more. A team with extreme cap space like the Jaguars can more or less make an offer the Chiefs have no chance of matching if they let him get to March.

Free Agents to Let Walk
In a perfect world the Chiefs should bring back Ron Parker, especially with the health concerns for Eric Berry, which go well beyond the football field. But it’s not a perfect world and he could push for the $6M a year that was received by players like LaRon Landry and William Moore, which is just too expensive for the Chiefs at this point. The kind of contract that they would need to give him at that price would be incredibly player friendly giving them no realistic outs in the future…Mike McGlynn graded as one of the worst guards in the NFL by Pro Football Focus so it’s pretty obvious the team will be looking to replace him, even if he plays at the minimum.

Contracts to Modify
Sometimes in the NFL deals just don’t work out and that is what happened between the Chiefs and Bowe. Bowe showed every trait needed for a number one and it was easy to blame the lack of production on the lack of presence at the QB position. But he has had a professional QB for the last two years and done nothing. Bowe has a $14 million cap charge and the team saves $5 million if they release him, but given their lack of depth at receiver its best to find a way to keep him. If Bowe were to be released tomorrow I don’t believe he would have more than $4 million in value around the NFL and it might be less than that. If the Chiefs can get him to play for $4-5 million that creates at least $6 million in cap room, more than if they released him outright. This in my mind is a must do….There is likely no way for the Chiefs to function if Alex Smith carries a $15.6M cap hit. Converting $5M of his base salary to a bonus will free up just under $4M without damaging their future too much. They can save $8M if they go all in on his restructure though that will leave them with massive cap charges in the future… Tamba Hali will carry an $11.96M cap charge if the Chiefs can’t extend him. Hali will be 32 and the Chiefs should try to model a deal similar to the one the Ravens signed with Terrell Suggs last year once they had Elvis Dumervil as the proven young pass rusher. Suggs signed for just over $5M a year in return for some massive guarantees. His cap fell from $12.4M to $7.8M with the move, so the numbers should be similar here for the team.

Players to Consider Releasing
Mike DeVito has missed 15 games in his two years with the Chiefs and it is unlikely they can risk a roster spot on him again. They have players who stepped up in his absence and he saves the team $4 million if cut….Releasing Donnie Avery saves the team $3.55 million and his production can easily be replaced by a minimum salary player…While the Chiefs like having Anthony Fasano it is time to go full steam ahead with Travis Kelce who is developing into a tremendous all around player. Fasno’s release creates just under $2 million in cap space…While it is nice to have a backup you can rely on if the Chiefs want to keep their best players in uniform next season, Chase Daniel probably has to go and you have to risk the QB staying healthy. Releasing Daniel will result in $3.8 million of cap space….Cutting Joe Mays, who had no impact last season, saves the team $3 million…The release of Hali and Bowe are also clear possibilities.

Offseason Plan
Everyone saw the writing on the wall for where this was headed once the Chiefs were successful in 2013. The team spent a great deal of money that season to add to a group of underachievers which did push them over the hump, but was going to leave them clawing and scratching for cap space down the line. With major players to re-sign one could argue that they have the second worst cap position in the NFL. There is no team in the NFL that would benefit more from the salary cap rising well beyond the NFL projections of $138-142 million.

If they are forced to carry Houston on the tag and we use our $140M cap estimate that puts the Chiefs in the ballpark of $15 million over the salary cap. With that kind of position it will be near impossible to free up space to negotiate favorable terms with Houston and Hudson, instead needing to go the large bonus and low cap charge in year one route. That said the Chiefs usually use such contract mechanisms so it is not the kind of departure from the norm it would be with other teams.

I think the Chiefs need to map out a plan and not dwell too much on one player. Houston should be the top priority but if it seems to be at an impasse they shouldn’t forget about Hudson and then scramble at the last second to come up with something. I feel like that was a problem in the year the re-signed Bowe and tagged Albert. They also need to decide quickly as to Houston’s willingness to come to terms quickly because if he does not then they need to make as many moves as possible to create the cap space to swing some leverage in their favor.

If the Chiefs do everything mapped out above and are forced to tag Houston it should leave them with $15 million to spend on draft picks, free agents and Hudson. If they do the low year one cap deal with Hudson they will have around $10 million after they sign rookies. I’d say that would max their free agent dollars at $6.5 million. They can get more relief from Smith to increase that figure.

I haven’t mentioned Berry at all but know I will get questions about him. The Chiefs can work out various terms with Berry to try to lessen the immediate cap hit. That can include a lower salary knowing he may not be able to play again or even splitting his salary over two years with the intent to put him on NFI and pay him over two years if he comes back the following season. I can’t see any scenario in which they cut him or simply make the decision to pay him nothing so I think its best to just operate on the assumption he’ll have his full cap charge for the offseason and they will come up with a solution in the summer when hopefully he is getting better and better news about his condition.

The Chiefs are in desperate need of a receiver but they won’t find it easy to get one in free agency unless they get a deal done with Houston. Cutting Hali may also be a pre-requisite to that. Given the makeup of the team I am not sure they can wait for draft development at this position so they will likely do whatever they can to make it happen. The large contract they gave to Bowe is also going to have receivers asking for the moon when they come to the team since the Chiefs already set their own precedent for the valuation of a number 1 projected receiver. One would lean towards Jeremy Maclin being their top target if they can find a way to squeeze him in.

There is no shortage of offensive lineman available in free agency, but being that they have let go of Albert, Geoff Schwartz, and Jon Asamoah it is hard to picture them going for players that would grade in the above average pay tier. I see this as more of a draft position to fill in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I would imagine their secondary help will also come via the draft.

Not many teams seem to land in a position like the Chiefs are in right now. They are faced with the decision of the cap dictating difficult cuts or perhaps not the best terms if they keep the player on the roster. Unlike teams of the past with tough choices like the Raiders, Jets, and Colts this is far more complex because the Chiefs are highly competitive and filled with a mix of young and old that seems prepared to challenge now for at least a division crown.

The wrong decisions though can really damage the team in the future, pigeonholing the team into the 2015 roster for the next few seasons without opportunity to really change much. I’ve seen plenty of teams go through that and it is not a pleasant experience and extremely frustrating for the fanbase. This will be a team to watch over the next few weeks to see what direction they are headed for in free agency.

Good read, thanks

This is a pretty realistic look, with one major exception.

That seems dramatically low for Bowe. He's a really good talent, and the WR market is likely to be dryer than Pesty's taint.

He'd be able to fetch at LEAST $8m a year if he left KC.

Not if he was the ONLY WR...

This entire article (for what it's worth) clearly lays out the Houston signing as the crux point.

And, it is.

I can't scream out loud how pissed I am we resigned Smith and did not lock up Houston long term at some point before/during the last season...

It sounds easier when the bright minds of CP do the salary cap than it does when this guy typed it all out. Seems like CP always gives us extra money to buy all the free agents.

I don't know if you're referring to me, but...........

So we:

1. Re-sign/tag Houston.
2. Re-work Bowe.
3. Re-work Alex Smith.
4. Re-work Hali.
5. Let Parker walk.
6. Let McGlynn walk (ARE WE SURE!?!?!?!?).
7. Cut DeVito.
8. Cut Avery.
9. Cut Fasano.
10. Cut Daniel.
11. Cut Mays.
12. Re-sign Hudson.
13. Retain approx $5-10m for bargain FAs.
14. Likely reach agreement w/ Berry to dramatically lower his cap hit.

Most of the serial mockers in DraftPlanet (myself first and foremost) have echo'd nearly every single one of these since the earlygoings of the 2014 season.

I'd say the only things I haven't had in my more recent mocks have been #2, 3, and 5.

You can't be ****ing serious.

He should already be gone for purposes of quality control alone.

He should never, EVER, be starting for an NFL team again....

THINK SO!?!?!?

The difference in signing Houston is the Bowe and Tamba contracts.
If we have to get rid of both then do it.

Ideally both will restructure and give us $10 million next year.

Also, this is Colquitt's last year. No ****ing way we pay a punter $4.9 million in 2016. No way

well here you go....

Extension.

or

Bowe overrated by CP


but hey, that would never happen ...........

Chances are the truth is in the middle.

I am kind of expecting Houston to get the franchise tag this year.
We have a lot of players to sign/resign. I know every year has some. It may not be more than normal but it sure seems that way this off season especially when it comes to dollars.
Reworking players contracts will give us cap space but it is likely going to cost cash in signing bonuses or changing base salary to bonuses. Between Bowe, Hali, Parker, Hudson, and Colquitt not to mention the other glaring holes that need filled with better than we cut, not everything can be filled on the cheap or from the draft.
This last off season we did dick and then signed Alex Smith. I think we will spend to fill holes every where else and pay Houston next year. The franchise tag number is $11.455M for an OLB. That is not going to be that much different than what his actual first year number will be on his new contract.

$13.25 million for the franchise tag.

Complete bullshit.

I'm sure you're perfectly fine with Smith's contract.

My bad that was last years number.
That does make it a little worse. I figure an $8 or $9M first year is going to be on the cheap side.

Who is this Jason Fitzgerald anyway? Is he a poster on here? I noticed the article kind of read like a poster with better than most writing skills put that together.

An injury plagued pos like Danny Amendola just signed a $5.7/yr contract. Riley Cooper just got $4.5M/yr.

No ****ing way is Bowe only worth around $4M.

Tamba will take less money to stay. Cut Bowe and give his cash to someone useful in the offense like OL. Our OL must get fixed or next season nothing will change.

Herp Derp

how is this even possible?

:banghead:
:banghead:


Chiefs are above the NFL avg at QB?

even at his new cost of 15 million Smith isn't getting paid like Manning,Rodger,Brees,Cutler etc. He ranks at about 12th in salary next year.

how can we be above the avg?

same we wide receiver ... we are spending MORE at wr?



so sick of this shit. Just drop a bomb on Arrowhead and get rid of the entire pos.

I have never said that, assface.

I said we should trade him before the start of next season so all that money goes to the new team. That our conservative offense can be run by a much cheaper QB. I imagine Aaron Murray can dink/dunk/no risk almost as well.

durability is a concern though

Had to make sure he cleared 20 sacks first. You know, prove himself. Smart business!

I mean seriously who would want to sign a guy before a career year drives his price out the roof? That's just crazytalk!

'cause Chiefs.

Spending by position, meaning all QB salaries are included.

$17M for Alex, another $4M for Daniel and rookie deals for Bray and Murray.

I doubt there are many teams spending $23M+ at QB.

You figure Rodgers makes something like $21M a season, but they are probably only paying their backups $1M or less.

Not just Smith. Daniel.

other team need backups as well

:shrug:

We're paying him quite a bit more than backups generally make. If he's not the highest paid he's probably in the discussion.

IIRC, Daniel is the 2nd highest paid backup in the league.

Hell, Daniel makes more than Ryan Tannehill, FFS.

Chase Daniel has the 2nd highest cap hit for backup QBs. He's only being beaten out by Matt Schaub.

Chase Daniel is #10 on our team in highest cap hit.

Daniel is the 30th highest paid QB in the NFL in terms of average per year.

Alex Smith is the 10th highest.

I'd rather them both agree to actual pay cuts than restructures. If not, both may have to go.

What are folks thoughts of letting Houston play on the Franchise tag this year?

Does management do that and see if they get a better contract out of him if he has a down year next year?

2015 cap matters. But not entirely.

We have a lot of space in 2016 and beyond. That gives us tons of flexibility to sign whoever we want to this year.

No. Sign him this year long term. Make the deal cap friendly in year 1. In fact, split his bonus into signing bonus and a year 2 or 3 roster bonus. It will make his year 1 cap number practically minimal. This is how they got Alex Smith to be so cheap in year 1.

**** that.

They better not piss the guy off.

This.

You never stop.

You realize that all the signing we have to do this year is going to shred all that space in 2016. Unless we let high dollar guys walk.

I'm down with that.
Yeah, I had that thought as well.

1) Berry won't count against the cap at all in 2015 and didn't count against the cap after his diagnosis last year. His 8.357 will be fully available.

2) we have around 5m to rollover from 2014

3) if designated a June 1st cut, Bowe would save us 9.5 million in 2015...not just 5m.

Likely a stupid question, but here it goes. If we wait until June 1st to cut Bowe, whats the point in saving $4.5 extra in space? Free Agency is over by then.

Also, what is the date by which teams are required to officially be under the cap?

The cap is going to continue to rise the next 3 years, above projections.

Over that period of time, some big contracts fall off the books.

Even as soon as 2016, the Chiefs only have salary commitments of 85 million...and 18 million of that is from Bowe and Fasano.

Chiefszilla is absolutely correct.

You can designate a player as a June 1st cut and release him before that.

Not sure the exact date, but I'm pretty sure it's around the time preseason ends.

Thanks.

Just these details make a difference of almost 18m in available cap space.

only assumptions

You don't know how much the cap is going up or what other players are going to want more money.

You don't even know if the Chiefs will dump Bowe or anyone else.


Dorsey gave that big money to Bowe,Smith,Fasano,Daniel etc.

What makes you think he will do better in the future?

We were drastically under the cap when he got here and he needed to spend money to

A) make the team competitive
B) be compliant with the new CBA and the minimums.
C) Pump up the fan base

20 wins the last 2 seasons shows his plan is working IMO.

As far as the rest of that...just watch it play out.

The higher these tv contracts go, the higher the salary cap will go. It's really as simple as that.

furthermore, we can't even yell 'gut the thing and start from scratch!!'

because what makes anyone think Dorsey/Reid wouldn't just go out and give a bunch of money to another bunch of average players?


If Dorsey doesn't have outstanding drafts immediately we are ****ed

:spock:

He's a new GM.

You don't think it's possible to improve?

I suppose you were perfect at every new job you've ever had.

well congrats to him, Dorsey took us into cap hell by signing a bunch of shit

most of the talent that took us to the playoffs wasn't even picked up with that money. We are less talented now.

Reid + Smith was the real difference and we didn't need to flush millions for that.

Calm down, chicken little.

All he needs to do is structure the deals to hit the cap lightly in 2015.

It's all gravy after that.

That's just silly.

We never have money. Did Piloi do this?

LMAO This ****ing place and GMs.

Peterson and Pioli ruined us for GMs.

Yet, a few dipshits around here think Dorsey is worse.

He may well end up being worse, but can we give it more than 2 ****ing years?

Again, we only have cap commitments of 85m in 2016 (a year that will see the cap go above 150m and likely to be closer to 155)...and 18 million of that is from Bowe and Fasano...2 guys that won't be here. That brings the number down to 67 million.

If the cap is 150m, that leaves 83 million...that money buys a lot of Houston, Poe, Hudson and other difference making guys.

In 2017, we only have 57 million in salary commitments...13 of that is Bowe.

I don't want to hear about how the cap is ****ed.

It's a total myth.

It's kind of amazing. I used to get shit for criticizing king Carl back in year 11 of his 5-year plan and even when the franchise went to total shit people kept on defending him right up to the end.

Now it's like people give up on a guy if the whole franchise isn't fixed by July of year one. I guess so many years of waiting and hoping finally wore some folks down.

That's exactly what this is.

no, the 2 things we had going for us when Pioli was canned was young talent and cap room.

we needed a decent HC and QB.

Enter Reid/Smith

Then Dorsey arrived and we proceeded to spend like we were pushing for a super bowl. Only to find out the next year that it was a bullshit PR move and were going to start rebuilding. Whether that one year PR stuff was at the behest of Clark Hunt we don't know.

Now the cap room is gone and the young talent is largely being cycled out while Dorsey rebuilds from the cap hell he just created.

http://www.tamparacing.com/forums/at...uuuuuuuuu-.png

What young talent is Dorsey moving on from while rebuilding?

McCluster? Signed for 4m per
Albert? IR after half season after missing the end of 2013.
Flowers? Missed time and we ended up with a higher rated secondary after cutting him
Asamoah? 4.5 per year for him.. No
Dorsey?...dude has been broken since he left
Tyson Jackson? Hahahahaha
Kendrick Lewis? Hahaha
Javier Arenas? Hahaha
Tony Moeaki? Can't fix bones made of crackers

I'm failing to see which moves I'd reverse ...

Houston.

85 not counting Hudson, Houston, Poe, Sean Smith, 2015 rookies and 2016 rookies. Our cap position is not that rosy.

Hudson, minimum 6/year; Houston, minimum 15/year; Sean Smith, minimum 8/year; Poe, minimum 13/year.
2015 Rookies: 6.5
2016 Rookies: 6

That's only another 55m/year to factor in. 140 may leave us like 10-15 mill in cap space in 2016.

If you project backloading contracts to make room for a couple free agents in 2015, we are cramped. That said - 2015 is the year to sign free agents given that we will not lose potential comp picks in the process, and it may be worth backloading slightly.

That is a different story. I am not saying throw money at everybody.

I'm saying if you look at the Chiefs ability to sign 2015 free agents based on 2015 salary cap room, it's the wrong way to look at it. You can use 2016 and 2017 cap room to sign people today. People say Houston has to be a 15 m cap hit today. No, he doesn't have to be.

I would take back Albert. Nobody else.

Albert only played in 9 games last year and missed 7 games in the previous 2 years combined.

Missing 14 games the last 3 years is very significant.

He will also turn 31 next year and is clearly showing signs of breaking down.

Not sure he is gonna prove to be worth 20m guaranteed and a 5yr 47m contract...

What stupid ****ing logic is this?

We might be getting raped but can we at least PROLONG the rape to be sure we don't enjoy it?...

doesn't matter miney wise, gotta win the draft anyway.

Daniel seems to be doing pretty good for 2 games played in 2 years.

When you factor in that we will most likely get a third for Albert in compensatory pick...I'm not sure anyone would rather have him back at market value.

Given the amount of comp picks we should get, I think Dorsey has done a good job of picking and choosing...or maybe that's not his job and it's mostly Ballards...whichever it is I think made a lot of right choices last offseason.

Now, if they would have drafted that Bridgewater guy...

That is the reason we drafted Fisher to get rid of Alberts big number. We drafted Ford to get rid of Halis big number. We will draft this year to get rid of someone elses big number. Just look at where the money is at or is going to be at soon and you will see high potential in drafting those positions.

QB?

:evil: LMAO :p :LOL: ROFL

Signing Smith based on one playoff game instead of extending Houston last year.

Back to back reaches with first round draft picks.

Signing Chase Daniel to an atrociously bad contract two years ago.

Opting for a gadget player in Thomas over just about any position of need on the team in the 14 draft.

That's part of being a good gm.

Replacing aging talent that is on the downward side of their careers.

Albert is gonna be 31, is injury prone and got a huge contract that Miami might have to eat.

Hali is due 12 million and only had 6 sacks while showing signs of breaking down.

Bowe isn't worth 14 million, is he?

I think it's smart to draft replacements ahead of time so they have time to learn the reigns from the vets.

He probably won't be worth his contract. Sadly, it doesn't look like Fisher will be worth his contract or draft slot either.

Houston didn't want to sign then. It's obvious that he chose to gamble on himself. Even as a rookie he was the last guy to sign even though they were slotted contracts. The guy wants EVERY DIME.

I think Fisher was a reach, but basically every single scout didn't. Hopefully a full offseason of strength training and working on his technique will save his career. Dee Ford was a legit pick and might end up the best pass rusher of his draft class. He sure looked to have the tools to be a difference maker in limited time.

I hated the Daniel signing. I do think they will trade him though. I know not many think that's possible.

Drafting Thomas was brilliant. The guy is a weapon on offense and special teams...not sure how anyone could say that was a bad pick.