Week 13 Rooting Guide (and now "other games thread")
 

I had this brilliant idea to use cdcox's software to put together a guide for who we should be rooting for to best help the Chiefs chances of making the playoffs. I always like stuff like that because it helps to tease out some of the nuances that you probably wouldn't have guessed:

http://i.imgur.com/Kbm97oO.png

The main one that's interesting to me in that is the Chargers game. Who would have thought that it's actually in our best interests for the Chargers to win today? That's mainly because the Chargers have a BRUTAL schedule to end the season, so it's unlikely they're going to be a threat for the WC spot anyway, so it's better for them to win now and take the Ravens down a notch.

(I should probably add that games not listed have essentially zero impact on our playoff chances.)

I was very proud of the great insight I gleaned from this analysis. That is...until I ran it with the Chiefs/Broncos game in there:

http://i.imgur.com/hRaM1kd.png

So basically, we can root for other teams all we want, but nothing matters NEAR as much as just taking care of our own business.

Let me know if there's interest in me doing this each week (assuming the Chiefs remain in the hunt). I'm happy to do it, and the impact of other games will increase as we near the finish line, but the story will pretty much always be "Chiefs win = really good, Chiefs lose = really bad" compared to every other game.

I hope for Dorsey no longer drafting b/u players and guys to replace guys he wants to cut.

Instead we'll have 2013 dorsey who espoused the importance of BAA...

Pretty cool idea, and you're right that I wouldnt have guessed that San Diego winning was in our best interests.

On a side note, would anyone like to offer up some advice? I'm torn on who to pick for the Giants @ Jags game... on one hand, I feel like NY is clearly the better team, on the other, it seems like Jax is due to put one together at home against a reeling team.

If our boys win tonight I love to see it every week but if they lose I think we're back in "maybe next year". Pretty much do or die tonight.

Yep. Tonight is essentially a playoff game for the Chiefs.

I think that, in any other week, this will be much more useful. But, as huge as our game has shaped up (win ties division, loss essentially ends all hope) it overshadows scoreboard watching.

It's pretty awesome though. If you're keeping score, put me down as "keep doing this, and why the hell didn't you start sooner"

Now look back at how important that Titan loss was.

I told you so !

Eh, even if we lose, 44% chance at this stage of the season puts us right in the thick of the WC race. It's nothing to sneeze at.

Nice job, DaFace.

Rams just scored.

FOR CRYIN' OUT LOUD, RAUSCH!!!

Seriously.

I'm gonna come up there and buy you lunch or something. It's time for an intervention kind of thing here.

You're my boy, but for cryin' out loud already.

Dinny

Hate to see you go wrong here, but if it were my money? I'm picking the NYG to win this one.. by 10+ points.

Actually, there's a decent reason for not starting sooner. The earlier you are in the season, the less of an impact any one game is going to have on your chances. There's a bit of "error" in the model in that running a simulation multiple times may result in swings of a point or two, so if the impact from a game is very small, it's essentially meaningless. So basically, you have to get late enough in the season for other games to cause enough of a difference to be meaningful.

Just can't bring myself to pull for SD... can't... I won't. Looks like Ravens about to go up by two scores... :p

On topic.

This is an incredibly groovy thing, DaFace. I vote keep it going.

Dinny

You sure?

I was told by a n00b that cheering for Pitt was DOOOOOOOOOM...

That pick Rivers threw was putrid, guaranteed to be the worst pick of any game today.

We don't need no stinkin' Other Games Thread. This one will suffice...

Yeah, couldn't be sure that his arm was affected by a hit just as he threw it? Either way, it's a good example of saying that sometimes a QB is better off not always waiting till the last possible moment to throw it. Sometimes, a QB just protecting the ball at the last second and eating a sack is.. more wise. :shrug:

Post about other games here. I say Oakland gets murdered today.

I didnt see anything affect that throw, he just dumped it off right into the LB's belly.

Yeah...being a Chiefs fan for two years now, that hatred you have for the chargers must run pretty damn deep.

Works for me. Have fun.

Bucs up on Cincy 3-0... guess we want as many AFCN teams as possible to lose. Go Bucs!

So if the Chiefs lost tonight and every game that DaFace listed broke in our favor, our playoff chances would be 56%. If the Chiefs lost and every game that DaFace listed broke against us, our playoff chances would be 35%. So cumulatively the other games matter about 2/3 as much as the KC-Denver game. The big difference is that the KC-Denver game is winner take all, while the other games will probably have some outcomes that work for us and others that work against us.

Never liked Rivers or the Chargers.

You seem nice.

I see the Raiders turned back into shit.

Welp, we're boned.

Traylor made a bonehead play.

TimBone boning people.

Torrey Smith made a heck of a TD catch a lil while ago. Would anyone love for KC to sign him in FA? Much better yet no more expensive than Avery, yeah?

Rivers has pulled a couple beautiful first downs out of his ass to gates

Hell of a catch there by Allen.

Chargers scored.

According to this topic.......yay?

It's a pretty minor impact either way, so don't feel too bad if you can't root for Rivers. :)

Yeah...I think it's a bit questionable, but no way they can over turn it. Great effort.

Hahahahaha....I had the exact same feeling when I was watching.

Raiders losing 21-0 in 1st quarter

****ing Chiefs

How the **** did the Chiefs lose to the Raiders? LMAO

Bucs now up 10-0 on Cincy.. Steelers 6-0 on Saints. Giants 7-0 on Jax.

Nice call on this lewdog. Very nice.

Except for the Ravens. Need SD to lose in case the Chiefs lose tonight.

Orton INT. Bills red zone woes continue.

28-0 Rams

Andy Dalton with 2 picks so far.. :)

Raiders with the post-SB hangover.

This makes baby Jesus cry.

TD Saints!

First thing I thought of: how did we lose to these ****heads?

Raiders gave up that 89 yard TD run....

Teddy B had a 103 temp yesterday

Vikes 19 minutes of possession
Carolina 5 minutes

Vikes 2 blocked punts for td's


Vikes 21-Cam 3

Not a good description of a backward lateral by Solomon.

Not sure I've ever seen a strip by the same team before.

Nice play be Fluker to strip the ball from his teammate.

Eddie Royal fought too much for a meaningless gain.

WAIT. A teammate caused the fumble! Har har.

The Rams are on pace for almost 900 total yards of offense.

Big Ben looking rather shitty vs a weak ass Saints defense... bit surprised.

The Steelers suck against bad teams.

The Rams have run 18 plays and are averaging over 16 yards a play. That is amazing.

How the **** did we lose to that POS team ?

big pass to Kenny Stills to put NOLA deep in RZ... die Steelers die!

Social commentary from rich asshole young athletes. The hands up bit has been debunked, assholes.

Is anyone else subjected to watching Washington? Lessee: 5 completions, 3 sacks, -3 (That's negative three) passing yards.

The battle for Los Angeles

How did we lose to that shit show???????

TD Rams

Been happening all season.

Seems every team in the AFCN is the same.

35-0

Chiefs should be embarrassed.

I get Austin davis had some flaws and didn't take care of the ball probably as correctly as the Rams wanted him to. But ur 4-7, kid has 2k yards passing 12 TD 9 int.. and is a rookie...

Why not let him finish out the year, if anything you are selling the idea to other franchises he may be your guy and then if you really don't want him as they are proving by starting shaun hill, you can trade him for major picks to find your new guy..

Nontheless I feel like benching Austin davis for a over the hill Shaun hill is just dumb imo.

Week 13 Rooting Guide (and now "other games thread")
 

Saints might pull this one out. They are absolutely road grading the Steelers' D.

Mark Ingram is actually pretty damned good. Never saw that coming..

We want the Chargers to win today? That's messed up.

**** them with their political bullshit.

Love to see Oakland come back.

I know it won't happen, but still.

Yeah, I don't agree with that. Go Ravens.

And then we moved to Cincinnati and had Bengal babies....DURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

**** that commercial.

Saints TD... up 14-6 on Pit

You have a problem with them expressing their feelings, brah?

:deevee:

Sweet