Which of these things will happen in the next fifty years?
 

Poll forthcoming, but it'll take a few minutes. I would suggest that you use this time productively by learning the lyrics to Bohemian Rhapsody, or perhaps learning some key Chinese tourist phrases

Is this the real life?

Wǒ xiǎng qù cèsuǒ.

Penis Fingers.

這只是幻想?

Zhè cái shì zhēnzhèng de shēnghuó ma?

Will this poll be ready within the next fifty years?

Having been to Hong Kong and Beijing over 20x's from 1994 to 2002, I wouldn't disagree. Took me a long time to learn Mandarin and it's very difficult to grasp for an American.

:LOL:

you and I will be in the phase four of life.

We beileve in Santa Claus
We don't believe in Santa Claus
We are Santa Claus
We look like Santa Claus

Scatta mooch scatta mooch I can do the fandango

Girls + Shirts - Bras

In.

You have too much time on your hands.

The current American affliction got to me. I got bored and was unable to read past the half way point.

At the risk of sounding like the women you've known...your poll is too long.

Chiefs win Super Bowl. Clearly the most realistic option. Right?

A human celebrates his or her 130th birthday

They would have to be > 80 now. Too much deterioration.

A mile-high skyscraper is built somewhere in the world.

Too far to go. The ascent curve is too flat. Too big of a terrorist target.

A single war produces more than 20 million deaths

Yeah.

A third party holds the US Presidency

I voted no, but it wouldn't surprise me.

A U.S. president is assassinated

Yeah, we are way over due, not that I want it to happen.

Anti-gravity is brought into everyday use

pfft.

Artificial intelligence routinely conducts media interviews

This is a job humans would want to do. I don't think it will become a thing.

At least one dinosaur will be alive

Too tempting of a target to pass up.

At least one human will have their brain transplanted into a cloned version of their own body

Someone will be rich enough to try it. Tech leap isn't that great.


Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S.

Certainly.

Chiefs win a Super Bowl

I'm an optimist.

Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%)

Too many varieties.

Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S.

Similar to presidency.

Evidence of a pre-Ice Age civilization is discovered

You can tell that youtube guy is a nut even before you hit play.


Faster than light travel is achieved (human transport)

Star Trek says 2063, I say no.

Flying cars

Jetsons say yes in 2062, I say no.

Food shortages lead to permanent ban on consumption of meat in at least one country (population > 10 million)

Not unless it precedes the war where 20M people die.

Households manufacture all necessary goods themselves, purchasing only raw materials and plans for 3D printing

Seems very reasonable given existing 3D printer technology.

Human sets foot on Mars

Yes.

Humans can communicate directly with at least two species of animals.

If it were just a math problem (signal processing) we could already do it. I think the basis upon which we perceive reality are too different.

Implantable computer/phone/internet devices are in 80+% of Americans

Plug me in.


Large scale nuclear bomb dropped or launched in a hostile act

Nukes are passe.

Major epidemic kills 10% or more of the US population

Odds are against, but it could happen.

Major epidemic kills 25% or more of a nation’s population (nation > 10 million people)

Odds are against. World wide the 1918 flu wiped out up to 80M, but 10M in one country would be a lot.

Major meteor strike or other interplanetary event kills 1 million or more people

Nope, odds are against.

One-world government is established

No way that will happen.

Prenatal selection of certain traits will be possible for the middle class (e.g., height, nose shape, eye color)

Tech now exists.

Peaceful resolution to the Israel-Arab conflicts is achieved

Nope.

Permanent cessation of Islamic extremism and terrorism

Nope.

Permanent human presence on Mars

Economics don't work out.

Permanent human presence on the moon

See Mars.

Poverty is eliminated in the U.S., based on minimum standards of living that are achieved

We will always have lazy people and greedy people, so no.

Proof of extraterrestrial life is confirmed

I think it is out there. I probably should have marked yes, but it will be though a radio signal or something.

Race is no longer an issue of conflict, contention, or policy in the U.S.

Nope.

Robot labor means that humans do not have to work to obtain basic needs (food, clothing, shelter)

Tech is possible. Social issues are tougher, but I voted yes.

Robot labor provides household servants for the middle class (maid, butler, etc.)

For sure.

Small-scale radiation dirty bomb set off in hostile act

I voted no, but probably should have voted yes.

Space tourism becomes a feasible option for the American middle class

Seems very feasible given the number of private space companies.

The US Senate OR House becomes majority female

Could happen, but I voted no.

The world ends as described in the holy book of your choice

Nope.

Time travel to the future (more than one day)

Nope. If time travel were possible we would already have visitors from the future,

Time travel to the past (more than one day)

See above.

U.S. adds at least one new state from territory that is not part of a current state

We are no closer to doing this than we were 50 years ago.

U.S. is no longer the world’s most powerful nation

Almost certain. China is growing like mad.

U.S. no longer needs petroleum products as energy source

Not that far away.

U.S. splits into two or more countries

Nope.

I think he means the nation's total population equals 10 million. so 2.5 million are killed. I could have misread.

I could see the meat ban, only because there are so many countries whose meat intake is small as it is. 50 years is a fairly long time and there are so many things that can go wrong with a food supply.

No option for "Chiefs draft QB in the 1st round"

Poll fail

I put odds on everyone reading all of cdcox's responses ~ 22%

You are correct, but 25% in a single country would be a very concentrated death rate for comparable flues.

This.

I see. Thought you were saying 10 million dead in one country. I don't know anything about any of that so I'll take your word for it.

So I need to get rid of my fireplaces?

LMAO

"Flus" looks like it should rhyme with bus.

Heh, indeed. I'm just rambling, I'm not one to question your statistical prowess...

Didn't see the the "I'll be dead" option.

Why do people always assume time travel isn't possible because we haven't had visitors from the future?

Time is strange to think about, if you really think about it..

There's a ton of shit we don't know. Who are we to say what is and isn't possible?

Easy come,easy go,will you let me go

Why? We all know it will never happen.

NOooooooooooooooooooooooo we will not let you go....

Anyone else think of Rosie on the middle class robot maid?

http://images.sodahead.com/polls/002...r_6_xlarge.png

Rain man, this thread is incredibly interesting...BUT

there are way too many poll choices to have any sort of focused conversation. I think most of these topics could use their own thread.

We are people

with brains

and we make educated guesses

Discussion of the motives behind the guesses makes a conversation

A sock and a sock and a shoe and a shoe or
A sock and a shoe and a sock and a shoe?

I voted for everything except the Chiefs winning a Super Bowl.

I wanted to keep it to things that might be realistically possible.

You'd be surprised how often I hear that.

scaramouche scaramouche will you do the Fandango

Is there a "Pooping In Ones Pants" option?

Out of 49 votes so far, here are the things that a majority think will happen:

Chiefs win a Super Bowl
Massive earthquake somewhere in the U.S.
Humans set foot on Mars
Small-scale radiation dirty bomb set off
U.S. is no longer the most powerful nation

These are the things that less than 10% of people think will happen:

Anti-gravity brought into everyday use
Evidence of pre-Ice Age civilization
Major meteor strike kills 1 million+ people
Peaceful Arab-Isreali solution
Cessation of Islamic extremism and terrorism
Poverty is eliminated in the U.S. based on quality of life
Race is no longer an issue in the U.S.
House or Senate becomes majority female
Worlds ends according to holy predictions
Time travel to the future
Time travel to the past
U.S. splits into two or more countries

The biggest thing I draw from this is a pessimism that we can resolve issues of social concern, both internal to the U.S. and also external. What does that mean? Does it mean that we should redouble our efforts to solve them? Give up on them? Just work to keep them from getting worse? Or does it mean that they're not important in the big picture?

While it doesn't show up in my summary above, I also scan the full list and see some optimism about science. It appears that people are reasonably optimistic that science can make notable leaps forward even if mankind can't solve its social problems.

Cure for cancer never as it already exists and is hidden, too much money to be made from it. Peace? no just can't happen governments won't allow that, they have to keep us busy. Chiefs win the big bowl? hmmmmmmmmmmmmm really reaching on that one, yet i remain optimistic :D

50 years is too short. Almost none of this will happen. Maybe we visit Mars and maybe someone hits 130. Thats about it. 50 years ago was 1964. Advances since then have been very good but almost in an unpredictable way. The internet would have been WTF? in 1964.

Al Gore came along so the internet made it's fasttrack ways into our lives. WHat a guy!

Well you can't very well vote for things that are impossible.

While I voted for science/medicine/technology I thought was possible in the next 50 years I seriously doubt we go that long without a third world war.

So let's go down the list. Right now, 40% think we'll have a human celebrating their 130th birthday in the next 50 years.

I voted yes. I think we've had people hit 120, so it's not that much of a stretch. However, I've also heard that life expectancy may be going down in the U.S. because of bad diets and no exercise. So it may be a small window in the short term where we have people who lived without fast food and get modern medicine, assuming no revolutionary breakthroughs.

But I voted yes primarily because I think some scientist somewhere will figure out how to slow down our cellular degeneration. I think there will be a revolutionary breakthrough. It won't help everybody, but if you're the type who lives to 100 it'll help you keep going.

Of course, the other wildcard is quality of life in China. If they continue to make strides forward, they may have big life expectancy boosts, and that doubles the pool of people who might make it to 130.

The interesting sidebar to this issue is affording to live that long. A 130 year-old person today would have likely retired shortly after World War II. That's a long time to stretch your savings. So if we can live longer, are we working longer to afford it? That's a different question in my mind. You're trying to keep people vital from ages 75 to 90 or so, as opposed to stretching out the 105 year old another 25 years.

No Sex-Bot option?

Those have already been created. They're called vacuum cleaners.

It barely missed the cut. I assumed that it was a given.

Mile-high skyscraper.

I agreed with cdcox on this, and voted no, though for a somewhat different reason.

Simply put, I don't think a building that large is necessary in any sense. The current tallest buildings are being built solely as a tourism attraction; it's not that there's a need to build that high. I think the cost would be very high and there are better ways to invest in a tourism infrastructure.

I think humans COULD build a building that tall, but I don't think anyone will want to, and I don't think businesses would want to be in the building. Frankly, it would be inconvenient if you were on an upper floor, not to mention a host of safety and security concerns.

I think we will soon be able to slow down degradation due to aging but it may not help folks who are already way old to live longer. Since the folks to make it to 130 must already be 80, I don't think this will happen.

Admittedly, it's a tough one.

Apparently the oldest living person right now is 116 years old. But I bet the next fourteen years is hard to pull off.

Item 3: A war producing 20 million deaths.

I voted no on this one.

To produce 20 million deaths, I think you have to have two big combatants going all out and throwing haymakers at each other. Unless someone launches nukes, we're talking about a sustained war that involves divisions and lots of people in uniforms and tanks and planes.

First, I think that type of war is going out of style. It's expensive and generally unpopular. It's better to find some angry minority group and arm them, or do cyberwar on their infrastructure, or stuff like that. I don't think anybody wants to get into a big massive land war these days.

Second, there aren't a lot of candidates for a war that produces 20 million casualties. At that scale, I can probably name the only real candidates:

India vs. Pakistan
Russia versus Ukraine or other former Soviet Republic
Russia versus China
Russia versus NATO
Iran versus somebody, but I don't know who. Maybe whatever Iraq becomes.

That said, there are other possibilities, such as:

Israel gets pushed to the wall and nukes most of the surrounding countries
Maybe Nigeria or Burma or Ethiopia gets into a really protracted fight against a neighbor.

The most likely probability would be some very long and protracted civil war in some big third-world country that goes on for 20 years and kills a bunch of people each year. But it would take a really big country to lose 20 million internally. Maybe Nigeria or Vietnam or Mexico with the drug wars. But there aren't that many countries that could lose 20 million without something unprecedented happening.

I think it's either a major nuclear war, which I think is unlikely, or a protracted civil war, which isn't likely to happen in a big enough country to produce that many casualties.

Im intrigued. Tell me more.

AI will take over a lot more than just media interviews.

Brick and Mortar shops will not be the primary means of commercial shopping (if such a thing is still feasible in the future)

8.3 quake rocks the USA

Meat will be banned in a 10+ million person country

3D Printing becomes commonplace

Humans will set foot on Mars but they probably won't come back seeing as they'll be colonists or what have you.

Major epidemic will kill 25% of a 10+million person country

The US will no longer be a superpower.

And BTW, we already have flying cars. It just was a few years late for Avery Brooks' taste.

Also, time travel is already possible assuming you can reach speeds approaching light.

I didn't do any research to develop the list, so I just threw 8.3 in on the earthquake since I figured that would be "really big".

The USGS has this list of the largest earthquakes in America, and it's pretty interesting: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...largest_us.php

Alaska rattle around a lot, but it looks like the official scoreboard shows only one earthquake in the continental US at or above 8.3 in recorded history, and it was in 1700. I thought the New Madrid quake was the biggest, but they're only showing those quakes at 7.5 to 7.9.

You know that there is a 1km skyscraper being built currently... it was initially planned to be 1 mile tall but they had to scale it back due to geological issues (I think). I would be amazed if no one at least starts construction on a mile high skyscraper in the next 50 years.

http://www.kingdomtowerskyscraper.com/

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...de-the-u-dot-s

Interesting. I wonder what the geological issues were, and if that's going to be a problem anywhere. It seems like at some level unpredictable things start happening.

It's cool that they were originally planning for a mile, though. That's insane. It seems like you're messing with air traffic patterns at that level. I don't think I'd be comfortable with an office or a home that high, personally.

Seems, with our finite amount of land on this planet, building up is the most logical thing to do.

I dunno. In some places I suspect it makes sense, like islands and mountain valleys and ports where the land supply is truly finite. But there's still a whole lot of land in the world that's undeveloped. I don't really suspect there's a big need for tall buildings in most of the world, and particularly for 100+ story buildings.

Evidence of a pre-Ice Age civilization is discovered

Can you give a timeline for this option?

It depends on whether the time travel thing happens, but ... in the next fifty years, will some discover evidence of a civilization that existed before the last ice age. What was that, something like 12,000 years ago?

I guess technically it should be "before the end of the last ice".

I think there were "civilizations" before 12k years ago depending on how you want to define the word.

Man, nobody ever tells me anything. I didn't know it even came close. I was thinking the oldest was maybe 6,000 BC or thereabouts.

Let's adjust and go with something like "pre-Lascaux cave paintings".

I'm a conservationalist so this conversation probably won't go very far.

#4 - A third party holds the U.S. presidency.

I voted yes on this.

It may just be a temporary hiccup, but Americans seem to be very tired of Democrats and Republicans, who do not really represent the mainstream population any more. We haven't had a new party formed since the Republicans, but the Bull Moose party made a good run, and at various times we've created Democrats and Whigs from the original Federalists. So it's not unprecedented.

The biggest challenge is that the two parties have built in financial perqs for themselves that make it very difficult to create a third party these days. But I think Americans are close to the point where a populist movement could take hold and climb up enough to get into the matching funds game. At least I hope so.

I think we have a third party president sometime in the next fifty years.

You see streams and forests. Real estate moguls see opportunity.

Which of these things will happen in the next fifty years?
 

I know! I'm not one to oppose progress but progress at any cost bothers me. All of this unnecessary expansion, urban sprawl, and pollution is taxing Mother Nature. We're lending a hand in the extinction of something like tens of thousands of species a day.

It probably happens everywhere, but I know here in Colorado there's a lot of hypocrisy. People decry urban sprawl, but then they want to live in a house with a really big lot.

I'm a fan of density myself. I think the world and the people would be better off if we did build up instead of out. I live in a very densely populated area and I think I have a better quality of life than the people out in the 'burbs with their big yards. But maybe other people really like mowing or something.

Is there a poll option for that one guy, xzrtop or whatever he goes by, to get laid within the next 50yrs?

I really like quiet.

Hi-pop areas have their advantages but I think that they also bring out the worst in people. I think that, as a survival mechanism, people in hi-pop zones tend to dehumanize those around them. It's too much stress (for many) to have honest human interactions with that many people on a constant basis, and the relationships that get built (generally) aren't normal/natural/healthy ones. To each their own but I can barely stand to spend substantial parts of my day in crowds.

I'll admit that sometimes when I go visit people outside the city, I'm envious of how quiet their neighborhoods are. No one will ever describe my neighborhood as quiet.

There are some places in the city that are quiet, but I don't have enough digits in my income to live in those places.