Is 2016 a breaking point for this team?
 

I was messing around on Rotoworld looking at how long we've got guys under contract. In terms of losing our own players, the 2014 free agency season is basically finished. All we have left is Kendrick Lewis, and it's apparent that we're not bringing him back. So I wanted to see how we were doing for 2015. It's not that good, but it's known from the most recent press conference that Dorsey is currently talking through and working on extensions with Alex Smith and Justin Houston.

Let's take Direckshun's assumptions that he made in his most recent mock draft:

These are the Chiefs who played snaps for the team last year who will become free agents in 2015:

Allen Bailey
Thomas Gafford
Junior Hemingway (Exclusive rights FA)
Rodney Hudson
Rishaw Johnson (RFA)
Josh Martin (Exclusive rights FA)
Dezman Moses (RFA)
Ron Parker
Anthony Sherman

That's nothing to shake a stick at, but this group also doesn't have anybody particularly pertinent on it who would require a lot of money. A guy like Anthony Sherman might ask for a contract more expensive than we're willing to offer, so I think he would walk. Rodney Hudson is supposedly going to be replaced by Eric Kush very soon, so I guess he walks as well. Nobody knows if Hemingway, Martin, and Moses will even be on the team next year. That basically leaves us with Bailey, Gafford, Johnson, and Parker. It would be great to keep any of those players, and they should all be pretty cheap with the possible exception of Bailey.

Direckshun's plan sets us up pretty well into 2015. We'd be spending barely any money to keep our own players. Really, the only guy I can see as a MUST keep is Gafford, and that should be a cheap deal.

Now what about 2016?

Jeff Allen
Donnie Avery
Tyler Bray (RFA)
Jamaal Charles
Chase Daniel
Mike DeVito
Cyrus Gray
Tamba Hali
Jaye Howard
AJ Jenkins
Derrick Johnson
Joe Mays
Sean McGrath
Dontari Poe
Sean Smith
Donald Stephenson
Rokevious Watkins
Frank Zombo

Ehhhhhhhhghggghhhhhh........

You can assume that Charles, DeVito, Hali, and DJ will be much older and feebler at this point, but they're still critical cogs to how this team currently runs. Yes, we'll (hopefully) be acquiring more playmakers through the draft, and yes, there will be some players currently on the team who break out into solid starting players and beyond. But that's still a lot of dudes. Even if you want to argue that current starters like Allen, Avery, Fasano, and Smith would hopefully be replaced by fresher and better players, that means we're still devoting a lot of resources to getting this team "right" instead of planning for the future.

We'll basically be depending on getting 3-4 starters per draft in 2014 and 2015. That's kind of a lot to expect.

I would hope that we could keep Charles around beyond 2016 if he still has gas left for not all that much money. Same goes for DJ. Hali may wind up being a cap casualty before then. We're looking at two starters on the offensive line (Stephenson and Allen) who will need new deals or replacements. Dontari Poe. ****. Dontari Poe. He's a big man, and he'll need a big deal. Daniel and Bray... I mean, who ****ing cares, right? But we still will likely need to spend draft stock on replacements in some way. We need as many draft picks as we can get these next two years. And I'm even looking at Mays, Jenkins, DeVito...

Basically, the stakes are pretty ****ing high by the time we get to 2016. If Dorsey does his homework these next two years, we'll be pretty okay, I think. If he doesn't...

Blow up the ship? Start again?

I think Hali will be released after next year unless he agrees to take a paycut.

Bro, if there was a breaking point for this team, we'd have had it at some point since 1969.

My guess is (and it is only a guess) that you would find a similar breakdown for everyone in the league. Not necessarily 2016, but I would bet every franchise has a breaking point looming in the books every off-season, if you looked.

It is imperative that Reid/Dorsey find a replacement for DJ.

2016 will absolutely be the year this team needs to be Super Bowl-competitive in order to save this current regime.

If they are not competitive by this date, it's best to blow it up and start over.

:LOL:

yep

That's not counting the head coach and GM, is it?

The smart thing to do is to use the 2014, 2015, and most of the 2016 draft to stock that 2016 roster.

Make a couple white-chip moves in 2015 free agency. Bring in a key blue-chipper or two in 2016, and make your push.

Keyest cog in the whole thing, of course, is drafting a QB in the 1st round in 2016, or at least having an excellent prospect in the wings by the time 2016 is done, because Smith will be twilighting.

I would definitely put them near the chopping block. Too soon to say if they would definitively need to be on it.

Bowe, Flowers, Charles and Hali will fall off a cliff before DJ

DJ has that London Fletcher/Ray Lewis longevity to him. We need a replacement OLB and a new freak playmaker on offense at WR or RB asap

basically we will need a whole new foundation in 2 years once we fully say goodbye to the 2008 class

God, have you ever wondered why the **** Marvin Lewis still has a job as a head coach in this league?

Sometimes if I'm taking a really nasty poo, I think about Marvin Lewis and how he has somehow survived this long and become such a blatant exception to phrase "NFL stands for Not For Long." It makes no sense to me. And while I do some of my best thinking in the bathroom, even the 20-30 minute diarrhea sessions don't provide a sufficient enough cognitive boost for me to wrap my head around that one.

I have, and I can never figure it out either.

2014 is a breaking point. Anytime we play legit teams we get crushed.

:LOL: ROFL LMAO

Next to Belichek, the longest tenured AFC coach?

Is something supposed to happen at 20:16 hrs tonight I'm not aware of?

He's (more or less) hit on two QBs.

That'll save you more than anything.

I can't imagine Ryan can survive much longer. What's he going to say-- the next QB will workout?

Am I missing something?

Those lists are largely a huge pile of shit when we're talking 2016. The team will extend Poe, and everyone else is expendable.

Huge pile of shit or cap casualty, it's still nothing.

The point is that most of the entire list will need to be replaced.

Thus my question. Is that the time when we push the "reset" button?

Nah. Natural development of the roster. Teams with competent GMs should never have to "start over."

Players that are meh or easily replaceable - Allen, Avery, Bray, Daniel, Gray, Howard, Jenkins, Mays, McGrath, Watkins and Zombo.

Players that are average to good players - DeVito, Smith and Stephenson.

Players that they need to either re-sign or find replacements for in the next 2 seasons - Charles, Hali and Johnson.

Players that need new contracts before 2016 gets here - Poe.

Exactly. If Dorsey is worth a shit, he's drafting guys this year who will be the key contributors in 2016. If he's Pioli, then we can hope only that he'll be fired.

We haven't even finished the 2014 free agency, begun the 2014 draft, or had one snap of the 2014 season and you are trying to analyze where we stand for 2016???

You are really f**** up and need to get a life.

Stop wasting your time and everyone else's on stupid threads. Why not analyze and predict the 2026 draft while you are at it??? :spock:

The dumbest mother****er on this forum doesn't like my thread?

Woah! Thanks! That's quite a confidence boost!

Jacoby Ford?

Did I miss something or why is this a possibility?

Keep ****ing doubting this Mighty Mite RB coming out of Nixa that I've heard of.

Okay, I'll bite on this one...

Jeff Allen - I already believe he NEEDS to be replace ASAP.
Donnie Avery - Easily replaceable.
Tyler Bray (RFA) - Unless he shows something amazing by then, he's only a 3rd string UDFA QB...
Jamaal Charles - By 2016 Charles will be going on 30. We'll need a replacement.
Chase Daniel - A FA 2nd string QB, I'm not overly concerned.
Mike DeVito - Marginal starting 3-4DE, good run stopper. Always plenty of those out there, but he's a solid starter so I bolded him.
Cyrus Gray - Meh...
Tamba Hali - Will probably be a cap casualty sooner than that. The time to replace him in theory is this year, at least in a rotational development fashion.
Jaye Howard - Meh..
AJ Jenkins - We'll see if this even matters by then...
Derrick Johnson - He'll be 33 and might have enough in the tank to re-sign short term by then. Not overly concerned just yet, but the Chiefs have to develop depth anyhow...
Joe Mays - Will be looking for that final pay day. If he works out, it may not be worth it to re-sign him. We'll see, see DJ for the rest..
Sean McGrath - Good 3rd TE, but I'm not going to sweat that.
Dontari Poe - He's gonna get paid, prepare for that.
Sean Smith - I didn't like the signing to begin with. I still don't. Unless he's amazing this year, I could care less if he goes.
Donald Stephenson - If he continues his ascent, he'll be a must re-sign guy and will get a decent dime. I'd prepare to re-sign him.
Rokevious Watkins - Meh....dime a dozen below average backup guard...
Frank Zombo - Meh... dime a dozen situational player and special teamer.


Most of the guys on this list are replaceable pieces using late round picks and low-key free agent signings. I'm not overly concerned about keeping this ship afloat. I think there are a few guys that I bolded that you re-sign in 2016 and a few you start thinking about replacing in this year's draft or next. I'm a big believer in developing youth. I don't think you need 15 draft picks or anything crazy, but you have to draft smart and be selective in FA. Right now you have 9 starters on that list, of which 4 you could call above average or better.

Whichever guys are on 810 Sports is burying the Chiefs and Dorsey already..

Unless we draft some real studs and shrewdly negotiate the free agent market between now and then... yes.

So many of our current core guys will be either over the hill or too expensive to keep by then... thats why I'm pretty disappointed in free agency right now, I thought we were clearly in WIN NOW mode.

Maybe not the sell your Grandmas soul version of it that Dinver is in, but atleast a strong, creative effort to add impact players, even if they werent top dog money grabbers.

Yes, this current group is quickly running out of time.

What if he's Carl? Is 10 years, 100 wins, and 0 AFC championships acceptable?

LMAO

Amazing.

you know you live in bizarro world when the Royals are playing for 2014 and the Chiefs are playing for 2016

Outside of replacing stud QB's, I'm inclined to agree with this.

Gonna place my bet that Axl looks invaluable by 2016... laugh now or cry later... your pick.

95% of this list are completely replaceable, especially by 2016..

Kony or Dee Ford will make fine replacements don't worry guys.

They'd have to hit on well over 75% of their draft picks. That isn't bloody likely.

The Chiefs are allowed to use FA, per league rules.

That list is a sack of ****.

Absolutely.

Could be that Smith is still our guy. If "regular" Smith is Indy-playoff Smith, we'll all be great with this.

I'd be in trade anyone on that list short of Bray, Stephenson and Poe for draft picks. I really think its time to trade Charles and Hali if anyone would cough up a decent set of picks.

No doubt. Far too valuable.

I ****ing hate losing change in my couch.

A second-rounder for Bray? **** you!!!

FA? What is that?

His last 5 games including Indy were very high scoring affairs, he really seemed to have the knack for this team during the final stretch... if it had just been Indy alone I'd say fraud, but it wasnt.

Will it continue? all I can say is that those final five games made my bet easier to make.

So many other worries than this guy right now.

What the **** wouldn't I trade Bray for?

A free pass to the KC Zoo? Done.
A free ticket on Malaysian Airlines? Done.
A flashback to '04 Demonpenz? Done.
A Zagnut Bar? Done.

The line looked pretty good down the stretch. Too bad they're starting over from scratch...

Malaysian Airliners? Done.

Indy looked different to me because he demonstrated a very high level of feel in the pocket, something that I thought was lacking during the regular season.

At times, during the RS, Smith looked good. In Indy, however, he looked elite. Totally different level, IMO, based on the intangibles.

It seems odd that people have said on here over and over when this team is spending high picks on OL that you can find competent OL anywhere, yet now the pendulum swings the other way it seems that what the FO is going to do (find it anywhere) and people are up in arms.

It's the OL.

Yes

drinkyourovaltine

Does you think losing Schwartz will hurt that much? I know you've been saying it alot lately, but i thought you were just giving people shit.

Already panicking about 2016? ROFL


Only on Chiefsplanet........

Unsure. Does you?

I was as big of a proponent this year about OL continuity (I think the sum of the OL parts is more important than a single talented guy etc) and I got crushed for it.

However, if the FO thinks they can/have developed a guy like Rishaw Johnson into an adequate/above average LG, lets see it.

DJ's game is declining see the game vs the Raiders

I do think he still shows some of that "old DJ" at times.

It is incredibly difficult to develop a league-average LG. Incredibly difficult. So I'm not sure it's fair to judge Pioli on this in '14.

And they might have 5 new starters opening day.

Hopefully Dorsey trades a guy like Flowers or Hali for a draft pick this year but I dont think any team would take on thos contracts.

I don't think so.

Fisher/Stephenson
Allen
Hudson
Johnson
Fisher/Stephenson

Mr. Dorsey tear down this team

No one's taking on a 10 million dollar a year player with this draft class approaching.

They'll have this year to either play to their deal, restructure etc, or be cut.

That's 3 new starters, depending on Fisher.

And of course you're like the only one suggesting that. A lot of people are advocating starting lush and moving Hudson, which would make it 4.

I'd prefer they didn't. After what they gave up to get Smith, they should be looking to continue their momentum.

Thats not gonna happen.

Kush is going to be the swing inside guy.

With the draft and free agency, you should never have to "start over" in the NFL.

Q

Yes they did, so get ready for a guard at #1 instead of keeping Schwartz and some continuity OH YEAH PBJ

ps - we REALLY need a Kool-Aid man smilie, like REALLY.

Normally I'd be all for trading an aging RB, but I would rather hold on to Jamaal for a few reasons:

1) He's a generational talent type of guy. Possibly one of the best ever.

2) This offense perfectly utilizes his skill set.

3) His most productive days are likely still ahead of him.

The Chiefs really only use one of those now.

I'd trade the piss and shit out of Hali though. Bowe (if it were possible) and Flowers could get their asses traded for decent picks as well.

The only "aging" players I'd keep are DJ, Jamaal, and obviously Alex.

I'd take that in a minute. I suspect all we would get would be a 7th rounder I'd keep him for that

In seriousness, I agree.

After the huge growth spurt last year, they should've been looking for two impact, starting free agents and then plug the gaps and add depth through the draft... its like they went to the five year plan after seeing that a two year swing was possible.

I sincerely dont get it... TWO second tier but solid starters at FS and WR, it wasnt asking for franchise suicide in the least, but nope.

Every improvement at the two most crucial spots will now have to come from injured second year guys, rookies and scrap heap vets... it sucks, I wont lie.

I think you've got this two backwards

FYP.

That would mean last year was meant to fill the stands. Delay the actual plan for a year and try to appease everybody. Pretty shortsighted.

I strongly disagree with that assertion, a solid receiver and safety... starting caliber upgrades... would've opened up so many options in the draft, not to mention securing our two biggest weaknesses with PROVEN reliability.

Why Dorsey didnt restructure a few guys to free up the money this year is beyond me, I figured it was a given in order to upgrade the team significantly.

Its hard to understand whats wrong with proven reliability and more draft options.

No, I was saying you add depth and plug gaps in free agency and get your studs in the draft. D

Longer control and cheaper