Offseason Plan 2.0 (12/16/15)
 

Just in time for the holidays, here's my offseason plan Part Deux.

Free Agency

Exclusive Rights Free Agents
Demetrius Harris - TE - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Frankie Hammond - WR - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Charcandrick West - RB - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Daniel Sorensen - SS - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Nicholas Williams - 34DT - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.

Unrestricted Free Agents
Eric Berry - SS (KC) - 5 year, $48 million with $15 million signing bonus and $22 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of $7.5, 9.0, 9.0, 11.0, and 11.5 million. Average annual cap hit of $9.6 million.
Jaye Howard - DE (KC) - 4 year, 25 million with 10 million signing bonus and 12 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of 4.6, 5.3, 7.2, and 7.9 million. Average annual cap hit of 6.25 million.
Derrick Johnson - ILB (KC) - 2 year, 8.25 million with 2 million signing bonus. Cap hits of 3.75 and 4.5 million. Average annual cap hit of 4.125 million.
Jeff Allen - OG (KC) - 4 year, 17 million with 4 million signing bonus and 5 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of 2.5, 4.5, 4.7, and 5.3 million. Average annual cap hit of 4.25 million.
Husain Abdullah - FS (KC) - 2 year, 3.25 million with 750,000 signing bonus. Cap hits of 1.50 and 1.75 million. Average annual cap hit of 1.625 million
Jah Reid - OT (KC) - 1 year, 840,000 with 50,000 signing bonus. Cap hit of 665,000.
Frank Zombo - OLB (KC) - 1 year, 840,000 with 50,000 signing bonus. Cap hit of 665,000.
Dezman Moses - OLB (KC) - 1 year, 675,000. Cap hit of 675,000.
Rishard Matthews - WR (MIA) - 2 year, 6.2 million with 1 million signing bonus and 2 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of 2.6 and 3.6 million.

Approximate Total Cap Hits before Draft Picks - 142.4 million


Draft
1. OT Jason Spriggs - Indiana (6'6" 305)

The right tackle position has been a thorn in the Chiefs' side for a few years now; let's call it a revolving door of medicority or worse. It really is time for KC to give themselves a pair of bookend tackles that can consistently keep Alex Smith standing upright. Spriggs is the type of long, athletic tackle that Dorsey and company seem to covet. Spriggs is an excellent mover in space with good feet and can be a great run blocker. Spriggs can easily function as a swing tackle if need be, giving the Chiefs a little bit more insurance for Eric Fisher.

2. SS Jeremy Cash - Duke (6'1" 208)

The Chiefs have some important free agent decisions to make with Eric Berry, Tyvon Branch, and Husain Abdullah all set to hit the market. I expect KC to retain two of the three, with Eric Berry being priority one. Cash already plays exactly the way Sutton likes to use his 3rd safety, close to the line of scrimmage and in slot coverage. Cash is one of the best playmakers in the country against the run and is very good in coverage. His abilities might give him a shot to go round one, but preliminarily he's being ranked as a 2nd to 3rd rounder. Cash is a perfect fit for Sutton's defense.

3. QB Brandon Doughty - Western Kentucky (6'3" 216)

The quarterback situation for the Chiefs is a huge question mark going into 2016, with very little known about the depth players behind Alex Smith: Tyler Bray and Aaron Murray. Bray was signed to a two year extension but has spent this season on the non-football injury list. Meanwhile, the Chiefs didn't give Aaron Murray much of an opportunity to throw the football last pre-season. With it a given that the Chiefs can't afford to bring back backup Chase Daniel at his current rate, they would be smart to add more serious competition at the position. Doughty checks a ton of boxes as a passer and actually reminds me alot of Alex Smith. I think a few years on the bench behind Smith, learning the nuances of the game, will make Doughty a much better player in the future and a potential franchise type QB.

4. CB Eric Murray - Minnesota (6'0" 196)

I'm expecting that KC won't be able to retain all of their free agents and the biggest hit will probably be losing Sean Smith at corner. The Chiefs have some great youngsters in Marcus Peters and Phillip Gaines, providing Gaines comes back 100% from injury. They need more competition though, and Murray is the type of long, man cover corner that Sutton loves. While not the ballhawking type that Peters is, nor the athlete that Gaines is, Murray is a steady type of player that gets the job done week-in and week-out.

5. WR Keyarris Garrett - Tulsa (6'3" 221)

I thought long and hard about adding a receiver earlier than this, but I'm adding budding Miami Dolphins starter Rishard Matthews via free agency so the need isn't as pressing. Garrett is a long athlete with great field awareness and top notch hands. He isn't a speed demon, but he does have sneaky deep speed. Garrett shows the ability to find open spots in zone, is reliable on in routes and slants, and comes back to his quarterback when things break down. With good leaping ability and height, he's also a good endzone target.

5. DE Ronald Blair III - Appalachian State (6'3" 272)

The Chiefs' lose a great player in Tamba Hali if he chooses to hang up the cleats after this season, something I fully expect. If he doesn't, the Chiefs will undoubtedly find a way to bring him back. Until that situation is clarified, I'm expecting the Chiefs to look for depth behind Dee Ford and Justin Houston, especially given that both Dezman Moses and Frank Zombo are free agents. Blair is a guy I really like and he isn't very high on the radar yet. This is a guy that brings it every down, plays the run well, bends the edge, and can bear down on a QB. Blair is highly underrated, probably because of level of competition but he was a man amongst boys against Clemson this year. I'm sold.

6. DT Matt Ioannidis - Temple (6'3" 292)

The Chiefs will have some free agent issues to address at 3-4 defensive end as well. Mike DeVito and Jaye Howard are both free agents, so I don't expect the Chiefs to bring both back. Howard has to be priority one at the position and is probably the second most important free agent after Eric Berry. That being said, KC will have to continue to build depth via the draft. The Temple defense was undoubtedly led by star linebacker Tyler Matakevich, but in front of him was a very good player in his own right; Matt Ioannidis. Ioannidis is a very solid player in all phases and has lined up both at defensive end and inside. Ioannnidis is a big-time high-motor player that routinely pushes the pocket and forces plays in the backfield. I see him as a guy that can develop into a solid outside anchor in the Chiefs' 3-4.

7. OT Clint Van Horn - Marshall (6'5" 310)

The Chiefs depth at tackle, and even guard, has been a slight issue so far and I fully expect Dorsey to try to resolve that this offseason. Van Horn is a guy that has been a solid starter at right tackle for the Herd and he looks like he can take that to the pros. He's not all that athletically gifted and his kickslide isn't always pretty, but its been effective. He's a bull in the run game and can generate movement off the line of scrimmage. Ultimately I see Van Horn as a guy that you move inside to left guard and let him be that island that defensive tackles can't get around, but you have him as an emergency starter at right tackle if the need arises.

Offseason Roster
QB Alex Smith
QB Tyler Bray
QB Aaron Murray
QB Brandon Doughty (Draft Rd 3)

RB Jamaal Charles
RB Charcandrick West (ERFA)
RB Spencer Ware
RB De'Anthony Thomas
RB Knile Davis

FB Anthony Sherman

TE Travis Kelce
TE James O'Shaughnessy
TE Brian Parker
TE Demetrius Harris (ERFA)

WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Rishard Matthews (UFA-MIA)
WR Albert Wilson
WR Chris Conley
WR Keyarris Garrett (Draft Rd 5)
WR Frankie Hammond Jr (ERFA)

OT Eric Fisher
OT Jason Spriggs (Draft Rd 1)
OT Jah Reid (UFA)
OT Clint Van Horn (Draft Rd 7)
OT Curtis Feigt

OG Jeff Allen (UFA)
OG Ben Grubbs
OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff
OG Paul Fanaika

OC Mitch Morse
OC Zach Fulton

DL Allen Bailey
DL Jaye Howard (UFA)
DL Nicholas Williams (ERFA)
DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DL Matt Ioannidis (Draft Rd 6)
DL Dontari Poe

OLB Justin Houston
OLB Dee Ford
OLB Frank Zombo (UFA)
OLB Dezman Moses (UFA)
OLB Ronald Blair III (Draft Rd 5)

ILB Derrick Johnson (UFA)
ILB Josh Mauga
ILB Justin March
ILB Ramik Wilson
ILB DJ Alexander

CB Marcus Peters
CB Phillip Gaines
CB Steven Nelson
CB Eric Murray (Draft Rd 4)
CB Marcus Cooper

SS Eric Berry (UFA)
SS Daniel Sorensen (ERFA)
SS Jeremy Cash (Draft Rd 2)
FS Ron Parker
FS Husain Abdullah (UFA)


Some of my other draft pick considerations, for your entertainment
2. LB Tyler Matakevich - Temple (6'0" 232)
3. OG Joshua Garnett - Stanford (6'4" 321)
3. WR Braxton Miller - Ohio State (6'1 215)
4. OG Sebastian Tretola - Arkansas (6'5" 334)
4. DL Anthony Zettel - Penn State (6'4" 278)
5. CB Lloyd Carrington - Arizona State (5'11" 194)
6. WR Hunter Sharp - Utah State (5'11 196)
6. CB Morgan Burns - Kansas State (5'11' 195)
7. OG Ted Karras - Illinois (6'4" 310)
7. FS Doug Middleton - Appalachian State (6'0" 210)

Edit:
I forgot to add in that I expect the Chiefs to re-sign as many of their Practice Squad players as possible, I'll add them in next go-around. All will be minimum/futures contracts that won't affect the cap anyhow.

This is a ridiculously stacked roster everywhere but CB, which is waaaay too thin.

Maybe, since you've already secured Berry, Abdullah, and Sorensen you do away with the safety in round 2 and go corner in Round 1 and tackle in Round 2.

I like this draft a lot except I don't know the DL guys.

I wouldn't be upset going CB in the 1st and RT in the 2nd.

In an ideal world, the Chiefs fix the OL with the talent they already have on their roster and use rounds 1 and 2 to select a CB and another passrusher to back up Ford.

With who?

I guess in an ideal world....Grubbs returns to form, starting at LG, and allowing Allen to move to RT. Pughsley could fill in as the swing tackle.

They need to find a guy that can play rt. I hate using an early round pick for that, but it is what it is.

I don't think they need to go into the draft with certain positions in mind. Just go full blown best player available and keep stacking depth everywhere.

If the best player avail is a dl, do it. Wr, rushbacker, corner etc whatever.

Our CB's look incredibly scary. Marcus Peters would be Our only CB with no serious questions heading into the season. I really hope we can do something to keep Sean Smith or bring a solid vet in.

But either way, the talent at CB in this draft is going to be insane. There's like 8 good CB's projected. 9 if you include Eric Murray.

We might take one in the first 2 rounds just bc the talent is so good

Also, some of these spots you've gotta be able to develop guys in house or guys you already have.

Such as rt or cb

My thoughts...

1. You aren't fixing the right tackle position with anyone on this roster. You're far more likely to solve the guard issues. Also, the Chiefs will have a decision to make on whether or not to exercise the 5th year option on Eric Fisher at the end of next season. If he falters, having reasonable insurance may be a smart move.

2. I'd be pressed to believe Dorsey will go CB in the 1st in back-to-back years. If Gaines is 100% back from injury, he's going to start opposite Peters and Smith is history. If I'm a betting man, they'll look for another developmental player, like I show here, in round 3 or 4. My next bit will explain why I think S, and not CB, is a bigger priority.

3. There's a reason I've only targeted strong coverage safeties that can also give rather solid run support in my drafts: they are essential to Sutton's scheme. Abdullah is re-signed in this scenario, but he's more or less a placeholder until a rookie gets up to speed. Tyvon Branch is not as strong in coverage and I see Abdullah as a smarter player and more to be the mentoring type. Sutton employs 3 safeties in nickel coverage far more than he plays 3 corners.

4. Depending on what happens with the free agents at OLB, the Chiefs may have to spend more picks on depth there. However, I doubt Dorsey is going to run a guy up to the podium in the first two rounds for a backup pass rusher unless some stud falls into his lap. I'd put more money on him drafting a defensive lineman in the first two rounds than an OLB, especially given the quality of the players at 3-4 DE.

5. Give some tape a look-see on the defensive lineman.

6. I need a nap.

I understand the importance of SS in Sutton's scheme but prior to the Draft, this is already your depth chart at safety:

Berry
Parker
Abdullah
Sorensen

All three guys can play SS if need be. There's no reason to torch a 2nd rounder on the position if you're bringing back everybody but Branch.

Jeremy Cash is getting wrist surgery, idk if that affects his draft placement for you.

Depends on if you think the Chiefs are going to keep Parker when his salary jumps after next season. Also depends on how soon he wheels might fall off on Abdullah. I never count on a rookie to make a tremendous impact in year one. As with all rookies he's a future pick with great value.

Not at all, probably to remove a bone chip. It doesn't really concern me with any player except for maybe QBs. One thing that worries me more about my placement of him is that Mel Hairper slid him up to his 2nd rated safety. That probably means there's a feeling he's going 1st round or very early 2nd.

Been thinking about some things... questions...


1. Give me some thoughts on drafting a mid-round tackle versus a high round tackle. I'm especially interested in some thoughts on UK OT Jordan Swindle (round 4).

2. Is it important to invest a high pick in a backup pass rusher?

3. Is CB as big of an issue as I've seen it made out to be with Peters and Gaines as the starters, Nelson with a year under his belt as the 3rd CB, and the likelihood that KC will at least invest a mid round pick on the position? That is, do the Chiefs really need to spend a 1st or 2nd round pick there?

4. Are you comfortable with the offensive guard situation if Allen is re-signed?

5. With Ron Parker set to make over 5 million in 2017 and over 7 million in 2018 and 2019 as well as the masses wanting to re-sign Eric Berry, which will likely cost 9-10 million per year, there will be future camp implications. Why should safety not be a priority thought given the need for time to develop draft picks?

I really like the Rishard Matthews FA signing.

Not a fan of burning a 4th rounder on a QB. There is still more value there at other positions. Almost feels like you picked a QB just to say you did.

Braxton miller would be a great pick

A 3rd rounder. On a legitimate prospect. Because the depth behind Alex is scary. Oh, and there is always better value at other positions about 99% of the time.

My mistake. A third rounder. I am one that believes our window is closing with Charles, Hali, Johnson, Berry, etc. We know what we have in A. Smith and have acquired Macklin.

IMO...We need to draft more BPA talent to try to take advantage of this window. If we could hit on another pick like Peters and Ford somehow replicates his effort from last week on a continuous basis then we have a chance, albeit small, to make a run next season. Of course, many other aspects of your plan have to occur as well such as keeping key players.

The wheels are about to fall off this bus when we lose Hali, Johnson, Charles, Berry, Smith, etc. It's time to push the accelerator to the floor and see what this thing can do.

I just reviewed your financial cap movements and I took out Hammond and Matthews.
That's leads to $24.255m money spent. We have $33.498m in projected cap space, so that would give us $9.693m left.

I would cut Grubbs and Fanaika with a June 1st designation to save $2.467m and cut Cooper and Commings (we just did) saving $1.258m.
Then I would restructure Colquitt pushing his money to a bonus for an extra year saving $2m. I don't think anybody would mind having him here through 2018.

That would give us $15.418. That's plenty to give Sean Smith $8m next year.

I think you're also light on your Howard, Allen and DJ projections.

You essentially gave Howard Bailey's deal and Bailey hadn't had a full season as good as the one Howard is having. I think you're probably going to have to bump each of those figures up by about 20% on Howard.

I dunno....you may not be too far off on Allen, it just feels like he's going to managed 4/$20. The injury history could obviously hold him back but he can point to the resurgence of the line at large once he got involved and I think that would be enough to convince one team to go the extra mile there.

DJ's just played WAY too well. You've got the guy taking a paycut from this season. I figure he's probably looking at 2/$12 with substantially more than $2 million guaranteed. And the Chiefs will pay it; he's been the most important player on our defense this year, IMO.

As for the picks...well I haven't done enough homework yet. I will say that I tend to think most 3rd round QBs are wasted effort thought there are obvious exceptions. In a perfect world where talent matches need, I'd like to see CB/ILB in rounds 1 and 2, OT in 3, slot WR in 4 and another interior lineman in 5.

It also wouldn't hurt to try to find another rotational DL to replace DeVito long-term.

Mike Daniels just got a 4 year, $42 million dollar deal from the Packers. Howard will probably be closer to that.

Hadn't seen that. That's unfortunate. I was thinking in the 4/32 range for Howard but you may be right.

And cutting Grubbs/Colquitt would also save us about $7 million next season.

He's just a punter, fellas. And while he's a good punter, he's not a difference maker. I'll concede that this is probably the best season of his career but if you're team's playing quality football then your punter just shouldn't need to matter as much and damn sure shouldn't be a $4+ million cap hit.

Yeah, they did it with the other kicker, so it makes sense to do it with Colquitt.

They needed him the first 2 years of the regime. They weren't explosive on offense and had to win games playing field position and defense.

As the offense gets more explosive, they need to transition away from him, sadly

So if you look at the Daniels contract, it's really just a 2 yr deal, IMO.

That said, with the $12 million signing bonus he secured, he's pretty much uncuttable in years 1 and 2. Over those 2 seasons he'll make $5 and $7.5 million in base/roster bonuses. So over the next 2 years he's looking at getting $24 million after the signing bonus, roster bonuses and base salary.

Yeah, that's a hell of a contract for him. Sure wish we could've gotten Howard inked before that one because you have to believe that re-sets the market.

I agree. And that would go a lon way to keeping Sean Smith, who will likely cost around $8-9m next season.

Are any of you guys a little afraid of signing a DL who happens to have a career year in a contract year?

Maybe a little.

But Howard's a guy that fought his way back from injury/irrelevance to make himself into a damn productive lunchpail kind of player. It's not like he loafed for his first 3 seasons, he was simply injured and buried on the depth chart. I don't think he turned it on for a contract push - I think he got a chance to excel and he made the most of it.

He's the kind of guy you at least make an effort to re-sign if for no other reason than the message it sends the locker room.

Howard's not a silver-spoon player. He's not a guy that's been some sure thing his whole career. He's busted his ass for several seasons to mold himself into a difference maker and you have to think some of that work ethic will remain ingrained.

Signing anyone to a long-term contract is a risk in the NFL but I think Howard is a decent risk.

I don't have a problem signing him, hes been very good and he fits the scheme well. I think some of the Dbacks we need to keep are a little higher priority wise with the way this regime seems to develop DLman.

Yeah, but the franchise isn't doing bad at DB either with Peters, Gaines, Parker and Abdullah.

For all the shit that Sutton gets around here, the talent on the defense largely seems to play up. And we're not that far removed from having Tyson Jackson as the lynchpin of our DL.

I think the DL can do a lot to make everyone else look better. The Secondary can help a little in that regard, but not as much. If it came down to Smith or Howard (and it might), it's a tough call but if you lose DeVito and Howard next year, you're just as thin on the DL as you are if you lose Smith.

It's really 1A and 1B with those two guys. And where I think Gaines might be able to do the job as the #2 CB next season, I really don't see another asset on the DL that can stand in for Howard if we lose him.

Smith may be more important than Howard but Howard may be more difficult to replace. It's a tough call. In the end, I have more faith that we can pay Howard and he'll come near his contract year production than I do that we can pay Smith. Moreover, I think the market will support an even more out of whack contract for Smith than it would for Howard. So I'd focus my efforts on Howard at this point.

I think they can keep Devito, he seems to want to be here until he hangs it up.

I think Sean Smith is gone. I don't see how they bring him back financially and frankly, they should probably look for the next Sean Smith at CB anyway in the FA market or draft.

The guy that scares me a little leaving is Berry.

I can't see Berry leaving. I think he likes it here, especially after everything the team and executive staff have done for him.

Thanks for some movement in this discussion guys. On Jaye Howard.... In my original offseason plan, I put him at 4 years, 34 million with 13 guaranteed and I got lit up that it was WAY too high and that he should be at what Bailey got. A month later, I'm getting lit up that putting him at Bailey's contract is too low and that he should be in the 4 year 32-36 million range. So, guys, which is it? I might just go with my original estimate given contract growth over time, and at a minimum you'll see 4 years, 30 million in the next version of this write-up.

On DJ, I put him in line with the tail end of Daryl Smith's contract in terms of salary. If DJ wants 6 million per, I'm not sure I take that pill. Maybe a meet in the middle type of deal at 2 years, 10 million with 6 in the first year but even then its alot to pay for a 33 year old. Even if DJ looks good in KC, he is beginning to slow down and he's noticeably smaller doing so. For a linebacker that relies on his speed, it starts to get worrisome.

You're forgetting that you are going to tie up between 6 and 7 million in your draft class and that you want to retain a couple million for wiggle room to pick a guy up in season if need be. Wave goodbye to your 9.693 million.

I've never believed in the BPA only approach. In general, I believe in the BPA in a position of need or near future need (1 year forward). It also is the theory that realistically gets practiced in the NFL. Let's say I had Joe Thomas and Andre Smith as bookend tackles, and I had both locked up for the next 3 seasons, then I probably wouldn't take a tackle in round 1 even if that was the best player on my board. I would, however, try to trade out of that spot to a team that does need a tackle right now.

Example this year:
So, while backup pass rusher is a need, a starting pass rusher doesn't look to be an immediate need. That being said, it is doubtful I'd pick a pass rusher in rounds 1 or 2.

I do otherwise agree with you that the Chiefs need to take advantage of the window of having some star players at some positions and begin filling out the rest of the roster adequately.

We can agree on the BPA at a position of need but only to an extent.

IMO, there are several factors that come into play. For the purposes of this discussion we'll use FA and the draft to address the needs of the team. Obviously, there are years where one position is completely depleted. Thereby making that position a position of dire need. What matrix exists that determines which position on the team is of more value than the others (aside from QB of course)?

If a position group is weak in the draft then I would try to address it in FA (I know I am stating the obvious). It takes a GM that is very much up to speed on the upcoming draft class to be aggressive in FA at those positions.

Should the team fail to address the position in FA then that wouldn't necessarily mean addressing it with the first or second round pick is the best option if there is a higher impact player available at a position of lesser need.

So, in essence, I would take the BPA at a position of need, it just may not be the position that is the highest need if that position group is weak.

I know. I'm babbling.

Not babbling. This makes perfect sense and I entirely agree with you.

If they let hali, devito, Sean smith walk, cut Charles they could make a run at Wilkerson

Scooby Wright declared. Should think about picking him up for ILB.

In the third?

I've started work on plan 3 after this Jah Reid signing and also finding out the contract details of the Bray extension. I will say, their will be a DB in round 1, but you gotta wait for the finished product. :D

I just hope Dorsey can find another impact player in Round 1 much like he did with Peters this season. I know, we had to wait how many years to finally see the team get a solid first round talent? Hopefully he can follow that pick up with another player of that caliber.

Is it coincidence that Houston and Peters both had character issues leading up to the draft but have both performed at such a high level? Would anyone have been upset had KC taken Houston with a 1st rounder in that draft? I realize that Houston was taken by a previous regime but the point I'm trying to make is that if a player with character concerns is properly vetted then they can be a leader on your team. For every player like Houston or Peters there is a Jamarcus Russell or a Ryan Leaf. So let's hope Dorsey has found a way to weed out the ones that don't deserve a place on the Chiefs.

Another impact DB in Round 1 would be a great pick if we lose Sean Smith!

If he is still available. Need to replace DJ at some point.

Really like your overall plan a lot but would change just a few things IMO.

at #3 I'd go Rashard Higgins WR - big upgrade potential over Wilson, Hammond and Avant IMO

So instead of resigning Hammond and signing a wr in FA I'd look for ILB help - 2nd tier type - Have not looked up who is available yet and maybe nobody worth while?

This has been updated in plan 3.0 (xmas edition). In that I pick up Sean Weatherspoon as a FA ILB and also pick up Braxton Miller at WR in Rd 3.