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-   -   Football 538 Calls Tom Brady the 43rd Clutchest Postseason QB (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=289920)

Hootie 01-13-2015 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By (Post 11267375)
You called on a site (ESPN) that came up with the abomination known as QBR in support of Silver's formula.

It's doesn't get much stupider than that.

Oh it does.

Care to guess?

Ok I'll spoil it!

COLDHARDFOOTBALLFACTS.COM

Just Passin' By 01-13-2015 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267403)
Oh it does.

Care to guess?

Ok I'll spoil it!

COLDHARDFOOTBALLFACTS.COM


And, once again, Hootie gotta Hootie.

Hootie 01-13-2015 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 11267400)
The issue with that is that you're comparing the QB to himself, essentially. If QB A and QB B play identically in the postseason, but QB A played better in the regular season, using that method would show that QB B was better in the postseason, when in reality, they played the same.

His second analysis shows those QBs against a replacement, rather than against their regular season selves. That's where the 18-8 vs 13-13 and 11-13 vs 8-16 comes from.

and This.

and I never once said that the article in question proves that Manning is better than Brady in the postseason. People are grasping at straws on that one.

THE POINT OF THE THREAD IS TO SHOW WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR YEARS:

BRADY ISN'T REALLY THAT CLUTCH. HE'S GOOD. BUT CLUTCH ISN'T THE WAY TO DESCRIBE HIM.

AND BRADY HAS HAD MORE WEAPONS ON HIS TEAM THAN ANYONE IN NFL HISTORY.

My God, A REPLACEMENT LEVEL QB, statistically would've played .500 football in the 26 postseason games Brady started ACCORDING to Nate Silver's advanced statistics.

No, this isn't proof that Matt Cassel would've gone 13-13 in the postseason in those 26 games. It's just advanced statistics. So brush them off, I don't care.

Pretty sure if these same statistics said Brady's teams would've been 8 - 18 and Manning's 12 - 12 everyone would've ROFL'D AND LMAO'D all over the place.

No double standard, at all!

Amnorix 01-13-2015 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267403)
Oh it does.

Care to guess?

Ok I'll spoil it!

COLDHARDFOOTBALLFACTS.COM


Ad hominem. Attack the numbers, not the source. You're wasting time with this.

I'm not attacking Silver, or 538. I'm attacking the methodology which I think is sketchy at best. Basically, it's ok for discussion I guess, but I can't really feel any confidence at all in the numbers. Just too many variables. Waaaay too many variables.

Hootie 01-13-2015 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By (Post 11267405)
And, once again, Hootie gotta Hootie.

You've brought brilliant analysis to this thread.

So, the advanced statistics say a replacement level QB would've gone 13-13 in Brady started (and finished) playoff games and the same replacement level QB would've gone 8-16 in Manning started (and finished) playoff games.

And you're rebuttal is ...

"Uh Nate Silver is dumb. Hootie gotta Hootie."

Brilliant.

Tom Brady has had better postseason teams than Peyton Manning. That is the premise of the argument. Tell me why this isn't true?

Amnorix 01-13-2015 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267411)
AND BRADY HAS HAD MORE WEAPONS ON HIS TEAM THAN ANYONE IN NFL HISTORY.

You've gone full Hootie on this. You seriously want to argue that any of his teams (excluding Brady) were the MOST talented teams in NFL history?

You're frothing at the mouth, and getting stupider. You need to stop.

Hootie 01-13-2015 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 11267413)
Ad hominem. Attack the numbers, not the source. You're wasting time with this.

I'm not attacking Silver, or 538. I'm attacking the methodology which I think is sketchy at best. Basically, it's ok for discussion I guess, but I can't really feel any confidence at all in the numbers. Just too many variables. Waaaay too many variables.

unless he concluded that the replacement QB for the Pats would've gone 8-18 and for Manning 12-12 ...

and then you would've just said, "omg see!"

Kind of like that website you flaunt around coldhardfootballfacts.com.

Hypocrites.

Just Passin' By 01-13-2015 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267414)
You've brought brilliant analysis to this thread.

So, the advanced statistics say a replacement level QB would've gone 13-13 in Brady started (and finished) playoff games and the same replacement level QB would've gone 8-16 in Manning started (and finished) playoff games.

And you're rebuttal is ...

"Uh Nate Silver is dumb. Hootie gotta Hootie."

Brilliant.

Tom Brady has had better postseason teams than Peyton Manning. That is the premise of the argument. Tell me why this isn't true?

You brought up a site with one lousy formula to defend another site with a lousy formula. When I pointed out the stupidity of that maneuver, your response was to bring up a third site that I hadn't mentioned in the thread.

You're an idiot.

Hootie 01-13-2015 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 11267415)
You've gone full Hootie on this. You seriously want to argue that any of his teams (excluding Brady) were the MOST talented teams in NFL history?

You're frothing at the mouth, and getting stupider. You need to stop.

That's not at all what I'm arguing.

It's quite simple.

A replacement level QB + 52 Patriots in 26 postseason games (they excluded the Bledsoe game) would have won 12.6 games and lost 13.4 games.

A replacement level QB + 52 Colts or 52 Broncos in 24 postseason games would have won 8 games and lost 16.

In conclusion, Tom Brady CLEARLY played on better teams than Peyton Manning where CLEARLY he didn't have to shoulder as much of the load to ensure a playoff victory.

Quote:

"Well, I sucked pretty bad today, but our defense saved us," Brady said after throwing for 239 yards, with two interceptions and, for the first time in 36 games, no TD passes. "I'm going to try to go out and do a better job in a couple of weeks, but I'm proud of this team, my teammates."
That's Tom Brady after winning the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore in the Lee Evans / Billy Cundiff game.

Amnorix 01-13-2015 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267414)
Tom Brady has had better postseason teams than Peyton Manning. That is the premise of the argument. Tell me why this isn't true?


So, first, you can post whatever you like, but others can create new arguments. The new argument I am introducing is that the same numbers YOU cite say Manning has UNDERperformed expected wins in the playoffs, while Brady has OUTperformed expected wins.

You havent' responded, presumably because you can't.


As to your question, I think some of Brady's teams have been better than anything Manning had. Specifically, 2004 and 2007. OTOH, I think some years Manning had better teams than, for example, the 2001 SB winning Patriots. That team's roster was a joke.

But bottom line -- like the article YOU cite says, my eyes have told me that Brady gets as much or MORE out of every team than can reasonably be had (exception of 2007 SB, when the Giants DLine dominating the offense), while Manning, well, doesn't.

Hootie 01-13-2015 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By (Post 11267419)
You brought up a site with one lousy formula to defend another site with a lousy formula. When I pointed out the stupidity of that maneuver, your response was to bring up a third site that I hadn't mentioned in the thread.

You're an idiot.

Quote:

A replacement level QB + 52 Patriots in 26 postseason games (they excluded the Bledsoe game) would have won 12.6 games and lost 13.4 games.

A replacement level QB + 52 Colts or 52 Broncos in 24 postseason games would have won 8 games and lost 16.
Now, instead of attacking me, explain to me what this means in your honest opinion.

Go.

(To me, it means that Tom Brady has benefited from having better all-around teams. Better all-around teams usually win more playoff games. The end)

Your turn.

Just Passin' By 01-13-2015 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267426)
Now, instead of attacking me, explain to me what this means in your honest opinion.

Go.

(To me, it means that Tom Brady has benefited from having better all-around teams. Better all-around teams usually win more playoff games. The end)

Your turn.

It means that someone put together yet another lousy formula, and you're clutching desperately at the flimsiest of straws.

Hootie 01-13-2015 03:06 PM

the 2001 SB Patriots?

LMAO

You really want to go there?

Tuck rule. Drew Bledsoe.

LMFAO

Besides, I thought Manning was terrible until 2003.

Hootie 01-13-2015 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By (Post 11267429)
It means that someone put together yet another lousy formula, and you're clutching desperately at the flimsiest of straws.

lousy formula

riiiiiight

coldhardfootballfacts.com

!!!!

Hootie 01-13-2015 03:08 PM

A replacement level QB + 52 Patriots in 26 postseason games (they excluded the Bledsoe game) would have won 12.6 games and lost 13.4 games.

A replacement level QB + 52 Colts or 52 Broncos in 24 postseason games would have won 8 games and lost 16.


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