I'm referring to a story that was relayed to me by someone who witnessed it happening.

Perez loves the Royals. He's all-on on staying here forever, and if the Royals show any sort of commitment to him and staying competitive, I think that will remain the same.

BABIP is like any other baseball statistic: It needs to be placed in the proper context.

To determine if a BABIP is lucky or unlucky, you have to look at a few things:

1) Sample size. Has to be big enough to mean something (You generally need at least 250 AB before it's close to enough, and even then that has to be placed in context of a hitter's career norms.

2) The player's inherent skills. Batters with good speed who put the ball on the ground a lot will tend to have higher BABIPs than those with average speed who hit an equal number of fly balls.

3) The player's line drive percentage. Line-drive percentage measures the number of well struck hits, and you typically have a higher chance of getting a hit on those. If a player has a HIGH line drive rate (say, 25 percent), they are more likely to have a high BABIP.

People who assume all BABIP deviations are anomalies that must check back to league standards are not doing SABREmetrics right.

oh it means something ... but not to a guy like Moose who didn't have "rat shit luck" with BAPIP in 2014 ... because he did not have rat shit luck

I'm actually excited they put Dyson in RF tonight. I think Ned is literally going to get Infante / Dyson and Rios about 5 starts every 7 games and use Zobrist at LF 2/3 of the time and 2nd the other 1/3

the Dyson in right thing makes me happy

he's basically platooning Dyson/Rios/Infante and using Zobrist as the everyday guy

fine by me

Looks like Soria is being looked at by the Pirates.

Hideous. Just hideous. Slap yourself in the face for me.

It's nice to have zero defensive liabilities on the field.

WAR isn't remotely similar to PFF. It could not be more dissimilar - One's based on unarguable outcomes and the other is based on human grades.

bWAR is awesome. fWAR is subjective

ur mom is subjective

Soria to the Pirates

Perfect

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tigers?src=hash">#Tigers</a> today have acquired SS JaCoby Jones from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Joakim Soria.</p>&mdash; Detroit Tigers (@tigers) <a href="https://twitter.com/tigers/status/626890434137096192">July 30, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Exactly how it should be. Good.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">carlos gomez and mike fiers go to houston</p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/626897679071739904">July 30, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Alex Gordon starts hitting off the tee, slightly ahead of schedule. <a href="http://t.co/Ts638GkUki">http://t.co/Ts638GkUki</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash">#Royals</a> <a href="http://t.co/MfPNAAr148">pic.twitter.com/MfPNAAr148</a></p>&mdash; Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/FlannyMLB/status/626900147390283776">July 30, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Holy shit!

Damn Houston is serious!

H-town, we have a problem. Do you read me? -over-

Thanks Mets. The Astros have a team legitimately good enough to win it all.

Moar Trades Dayton grab Gallardo now

Oh FFS

SoooooOoooOOooOOOooooooo ...









.....






........... Tyson Ross?!?

Low BBiq: Monty and Rex were beating off to Duffy "pitching to contact" now. That's a bad thing for a pitcher to do because K=lower ERA. It correlates quite well. If you're a hitter you want a K pitcher (which Duffy can be) to morph into a guy you can hit.


And the #s bear that out: his K rate is down 1/9 IP while his BB is up from 3.19 to 3.43. If you "pitch to contact" your walks should go down. Since he Ks fewer and BB more his FIP had jumped from 3.50 to 4.30. Nice analysis Monty!

DVR caught up already?

I heard that piece too. "Pitch to contact" is just such a shit baseball phrase. It's akin to "Keep your elbow up".

Weird that I even caught that but I like Monty most of the time. He flubbed this one though. Our top 5 relievers avg over 9k/9

YankMes working to get Kinbrell. Add him to Betances + Miller = scary

Astros just hit a walkoff three run homer. Sweep the Angels.

I wouldn't expect you to understand. You should really try WATCHING a game sometime instead of spending all of your time on Fangraphs.

Rangers whip the Yankees bullpen. Josh Hamilton with the walkoff single.

Not worried at all. We got this.

Once again, screw you, NL!

All the big name guys pretty much snatched up by the AL.
Meanwhile, the NL teams with leads get the benefit of facing weaker opponents now missing their marquee players.

Oh and Houston is squarely got their sights set on us. They already felt confident outpacing the Angels to win the West. They want home field so they can homer you to death. With that front 3, their bullpen and already heavy bats, they go out and grab another weapon.

They're not ****ing around.

I wonder if and how much moves by teams like the Royals surprisingly did influenced them to match by acquiring another position player?

Cueto and Volquez aren't going to be enough..

They know this race is wide open. It seems crazy because they've been a 110 loss team, but the Astros can win the World Series. They might have the best ace, they can mash the ball, and they lead the league in steals. They are a dangerous offensive team. Especially in that park.

Both Rosenthal and Heyman said on Twitter tonight that they are still active in the trade market too. They might not be done.

Word on the streets is that Houston wants Kimbrel from San Diego.

They're also a pretty good defensive team, and Gomez makes it better. They'll also get Springer back. The name still out there is Kimbrel. I thought we weren't f'ing around, but the Astros and Jays said , "and we'll raise you one".

Giants get Leake.

It was never going to be. This team was banking on Ventura and Duffy leading the way. They don't have to do that now, but they at least need to show some consistency, give us 5-6 IP, 2-3 runs most times out. Guthrie and Vargas did that for us in the playoffs last year.

We can't have tonight's Duffy in the playoffs.

I'm still confident we can beat any of these teams if we have home field. If we lose it to the Astros, Jays, or even Yankees, I think we're done for. Could have said the same thing about Camden Yards, but the Jays and Astros have much, much better pitching than the Orioles did. Yankees not so much but I would still hate to have to rely on winning games there

I'm rooting for the Twins & Angels.

Big time

Passan says Astros and Pads working on something big. Says they're talking about Ross and Kimbrel. Holy mother. There's going for it, and then there is hide the women and children.

While I agree with your post, personally, I wouldn't be any more worried about the Astros than I am already. Ross is a pretty good pitcher but he's not Nolan Ryan or anything, and Kimbrel is still just a closer. How many games do you need to win in the 9th inning to win? Don't get me wrong, Kimbrel is a beast, but is he really a difference maker. For instance, if Houston is up one in the 9th without Kimbrel, is it really significantly different than with Kimbrel? Hope that makes sense? **** it, I'm tired. Either way I stand by my original point. If we have home field, I'm not scared of Houston. If we have to play through Houston, I think we're in trouble with or without Ross and Kimbrel

Are you guys really bitching about other teams acquiring players? We got Cueto and Zobrist which is a huge haul ... Of course other contenders are going to try and do the same

Giants acquired Mike Leake. He would have been a nice piece to kick Chris Young or Guthrie up outta the rotation.

Ohh Michael Morse and Brandon Beachy was DFA'd by the Dodgers.

GMDM will find a way to add him to the Royals.

Definitely but Houston....wow.

I sure as hell don't want the Yankees to get Chapman or Kimbrel. That's not bitching. That's just rooting against your opponents.




.

It's amazing.

"team x is working on/just got player y... CMON GMDM, Make another move".

Even better, this team is going to have a little slump somewhere along the way. It could even be in Toronto. We could lose three of four, and ...get ready...

"DFA/Madsen/Duffy/Cueto/Zobrist"!!!!!!

"Trade Ventura/Holland/Madsen/..." And the latest worry: "I'm worried about "chemistry" because our SS/2B made a webgem" and we acquired a guy who can play 2B (because all season we've complained that Omar sucks/shits down his leg/should be stabbed by his teammates in the locker room/quits)...

It's so scary being good.

The playoffs are a crapshoot. For everybody not just the Royals. This is going to be fun to ridicule some of these morons.

Houston scares me most...bluejays still have to get in. Royals can beat anyone anytime. Going to be a challenge for sure. No more moves necessary...if you could get a starter great but Ceuto and Zobrist were huge

So, when Cueto goes 6 innings and gives up 4 runs to the toughest offense in MLB, will the naysayers start calling the trade a bust?

@JonHeymanCBS: padres have sought top ss prospect jorge mateo for kimbrel. he has been viewed as untouchable. we will see.

@Rotoworld_BB: Orioles trying to acquire Revere and Parra http://t.co/kvHOZ3hJL5

@Buster_ESPN: Cubs are on Tommy Hunter; the Cubs aren't really in the Craig Kimbrel mix now. Houston continues to talk Kimbrel.

:hmmm:

@HardballTalk: Padres and Astros said to be “working on something*big” http://t.co/6LMuFyPUOD

"Pitching to contact" is just the latest of dumb, meaningless baseball phrases. It's right up there with "lineup protection", "good pitching beats good hitting", "clubhouse chemistry" and my personal fave:


"5th starter"

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Dodgers are currently paying 24% of the Marlins payroll right now. When the Marlins lose, Jeffrey Loria wins!</p>&mdash; Alex Burwasser (@AlexKBurwasser) <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexKBurwasser/status/626937896512188416">July 31, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Was listening to Sirius, and the talk is San Diego is looking to move a bunch of talent. Since it's the 11th hour and it seems San Diego is pressed to want to make some major moves, they're ripe for teams looking to buy can take advantage to deal give up quite a bit less.

The kicker - the team charging hardest to acquire multiple guys potentially- Houston.

The signs are clear. The Astros are taking shots across the bow and putting the AL on notice. They're intent is to make this an arms race. Right now, it seems like they are making the Dodgers look conservative in stocking the cupboard.

Not sure if question is serious.
Answer is obviously, yes.

You are full of shit - and clearly never pitched an inning in your life. I did through college (albeit NAIA so...) and pitching to contact is absolutely a strategy you can employ on the mound. All pitchers can choose from different pitches and locations, and when you do so you are strategically deciding to go for the swing and miss, or to pitch to weak contact. As a pitcher you employ a situational analysis that includes the point in the game, outs, men on base, score, count, batter etc... You then use this information to decide to go for the swing and miss or to pitch to contact.

For me personally in high school and below I almost always went for the swing and miss unless I was having control problems - I was overpowering at those levels. In college I had to learn to pitch to contact as every batter was the best player on their high school team - absolutely changed my strategy bit their were games where we had the lead where I would still pitch aggressively and go for the high K rate.

Analytics don't tell the whole story, and that's the best part of baseball. Every pitch is a mental chess match.

I'm convinced now more than ever that PB is just trolling us. Nobody could be that dumb.

Well, I don't think either of those options can be counted on anymore.

Unless your goal is to give up the most HRs in a single postseason game.

I didn't read all that but from what I gleaned - why didn't you want to just strike them out?

@Rotoworld_BB: Yanks 'aggressively pursuing' Aroldis Chapman http://t.co/hAVNEiT6aL

@JonHeymanCBS: yankees are waiting on SD and kimbrel but may turn to marlins carter capps instead

@jaysonst: #Yankees may be getting tired of waiting around for #Padres on Kimbrel. Hear they're also talking to #Marlins about Carter Capps

@McCulloughStar: Salvador Perez OPS+ by season:

2011: 128
2012: 115
2013: 105
2014: 91
2015: 85

Why, exactly, must KC rework his current contract?

It doesn't work that way - if you pitch max effort every pitch you better be a closer or you won't last more than 15-20 pitches. At times any starter must pitch to contact to be efficient. Duffy is the perfect example - he tried to strike everyone out so he ended up with a lot of full counts and lasted 5 innings or less.

PB that too was probably far too long an answer....here is the short of why you don't try to strike everyone out:

Inefficiency.

Yeah but Fangraphs sez

OPS+ compares him to everyone in the league, including DH, 1B, corner OF, etc. At catcher, he gets a huge positional adjustment. He's over 2 WAR already with 2 months to go this season (some of that is also his defense)

Fallacy. MLB avg pitch counts:

BB: 5.5
K: 4.8
In Play: 3.4


Sounds good. Until you realize 33% of "in play" result in a baserunner and require the pitcher to start over. Factoring those in the avg count actually is 5.


(3.4/(1-.33) = 5

Sounds like we should dump every pitcher on our roster that cannot achieve at least 3 SO/IP. Anything else is inefficient.

So you are saying its .02 more efficient - but you dismissed the entirety of my argument -max effort versus pitching to weak contact.

It takes more effort to try to strike everyone out than it does to pitch smart. There is a reason that many high >90's pitchers have to learn to become more efficient and focus on location than just throwing gas to become starters. They often sacrifice a few mph on the fb to last longer pitch count wise. If they can't figure this out they often go to the pen where they can max effort and try to throw it past everyone.

Pitchers absolutely do learn to pitch to contact. It's not a fallacy.

Edit: I'm actually shocked this is a debate

While the ability to get strikeouts is more important in today's game than ever, because of the way the game has evolved, there's no black-and-white on this.

Pitching to contact is not just "Throw the ball down the middle and let them hit it." If that was the case, if that's what it really meant, it WOULD be stupid.

But pitching to contact is more of a focus on throwing quality strikes, pounding the strike zone, and forcing guys to swing at good pitches because they're in the zone than anything else.

It's throwing your fastball at 92 at the knees and locating rather than ramping up to max velo 96-97 and not knowing where it's going.

Yeah, it decreases strikeout totals when you do this, but it also decreases some risk and also allows pitchers to work deeper because they're not going max effort on every single pitch.

Even holding back 5 percent of your best can make a huge difference.