No it's not.

It's a worthless statistic based on lies.

He led the league in YPA because his completion percentage was high on short passes, not because he threw the ball down the field.

Not surprisingly, his yards per completion was near the bottom of the league, which lends credence to my analysis.

Quickest way to spot a guy with a low football IQ:

1.) Uses QB rating to back up their opinion.

A QB can go 5/10 for 35 yards and a TD while losing 34-7 and have a 91 QBR.

Matt Cassel had a game against Philly a few years ago where he got curbstomped, threw for under 100 yards but had like a 114 rating.

One of the most useless statistics in sports.

A guy who put the team on his back, wins, and goes 25/40 for 425 yards, 5 TD's and 3 INT has a rating of 107, while the guy that plays not to lose, loses, going 20/25 for 180 yards, 1 TD and no INT's - has a 121 rating.

I'll take my chances with the first guy every time.

So you dont get my point that its a win win scenario?

Fair enough.

There aren't many like you though, I think you realize that too.
Posted via Mobile Device

He's 29. Pretty tough to claim that he's ascending when he should be in his prime, and it's not like he's been buried on the bench behind a HOFer. And in his best year, he average 175 YPG. This, to me, strongly suggests that his success is due to being highly protected.

We saw similar success from Cassel in '10.

Given that they're statistical twins, I'm expecting much the same type of treatment from the coaching staff in order to put Smith in positions to succeed.

Seriously - I had the same argument a million times with Chargers homers who used to blindly defend Norv and AJ. Negative predictions are generally brought on by a negative track record, not by someone being a "bandwagon fan" or "wanting the team to fail."

Clay it doesn't matter how long the passes were. If you get the most yards out of each attempt, that's the ultimate ****ing goal.

LOL. Let me guess, you judge pitchers by their win/loss record too?

Success with QB's?

I posted the numbers right after he was announced the HC.

Reid had success with the #2 overall pick.

Otherwise, the average numbers for every other QB he's "hand-picked" have been ****ing brutal:

When have I ever said "I told you so"? About anything?

I am much, much more likely to admit that I'm wrong about something than I am to ever gloat about being right.

If Alex Smith did happen to succeed, I would be happy, certainly, but I'd also be saying "wow, I never saw that coming" a lot.

But at the end of the day, what you can't seem to figure out, is that this has nothing to do with me. I don't have any kind of personal stake in this, other than the joy/sorrow of gameday. And I don't know why you have such a hard time understanding that. It's not about being right. It's never about that.

Maybe for some.

Not me. Have you ever seen me or keg say I told you so? Bump old threads?

Hell pgm asked me if I was waiting to bump a thread about something the other day and I told him I wouldn't need to. I know what was said in it.

Now clay on the other hand...
Posted via Mobile Device

This.

Ascending as a player. LMAO

That's like being proud of a kid who scored 11 on his ACT, then got a 14 the next time he took it. Better than bad does not equal good.

We're looking for 30+ here.

Usually high YPA is an indicator that a guy is throwing the ball down the field.

That's why it's a positive.

This is not so in Alex's case, so it's a worthless indicator for him.

But but but

"Even quarterbacks like Brad Johnson won the superbowl"

Haha yeah, when his defense gets 5 interceptions and takes 3 of them to the house for tds and his head coach used to coach the opposing team that was still using his signals and plays.

Let's bank on that happening for when Romeo becomes the head coach of the team we will play in the superbowl.

ROFL

Or should we discuss Trent Dilfer?

No, it's not. The people who believe Smith will be "meh" would be wrong. They wouldn't have "won" shit, since their analysis will have been completely off-base.

It doesn't mean they cannot be happy for the team's success.

This is the problem. It seems that True Fans want this to be about "who is right," and this has absolutely nothing to do with how I approach my analysis of the team.

But herein lies the problem. I don't think many fans want to analyze anything. They treat sports like a summer thrill-fest movie. Sit back. Enjoy the ride. Thinking optional.

That's cool. I understand that approach.

It's just not mine.

Couldn't agree more.

And to add: this doesn't make these people "dumb." Far from it. There are enough stresses in life to understand why someone sure as **** wouldn't want to make sports potentially one of them.

The irony, then, of these individuals participating in a sports message board where opinions of all sorts must drive the site, yet claiming that some are "ruining the fun," is amazing.

Again, we're in 100% agreement.

BTW, you still haven't PM'd me that new email for the FF league.

Sorry, haven't even created it. By the end of the day tomorrow, promise.

No rush, I'm just concerned I'll forget about it.

If he never catches the ball and lines up incorrectly so that he can't get the ball, he'll never fumble.

P.S. I'm referencing a report that he's dropped a few passes each practice.

I guess it depends on what you define as "playing well", but in any case, it's a long-term tragedy for the franchise if he does.

This. The window is closing on good players who have soldiered through this shit-house of a franchise. They deserve better. ****, the FANS deserve better.

Ah I see, I am an uniformed non thinker when it comes to the Chiefs because I dont look at just the negatives and look at what could happen in a positive way.

Gotcha.

Like YPA, leading the league is a good thing - ME

YPA , Uh its a trick it doesn't mean what it means in THIS case - Clay

If you can't objectively analyze this guy's play, that's not my problem.

8 ypa is nice and all but it's meaningless since his yards per completion have always been low, because he literally throws the ball down the field less than Matt ****ing Cassel.

Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson: The new breed of NFL QB..... the read-option quarterback. Does Oakland now have to play Terrell Pryor just to counter KC's use of Alex Smith as a mobile read-option QB?

July 27
By RANDY COVITZ
The Kansas City Star

Chiefs testing read-option plays

Chiefs fans weren’t imagining things on the practice fields at Missouri Western.

The Chiefs were indeed running read-option plays. Quarterbacks Alex Smith and Chase Daniel were faking handoffs to fullbacks and sprinting to the outside, keeping the ball or pitching it to trailing halfbacks.

Just like college football. And just like the read options that were run by several other NFL teams last year, including the San Francisco 49ers, where new Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith started nine games before Colin Kaepernick finished the 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl.

“It’s a change-up for us,” said Chiefs offensive coordinator Doug Pederson. “It’s something we’re going to continue to work on. If it gives us an advantage at game time, then it’s something that can definitely help us.

“All of our quarterbacks are capable of doing the zone read, the option, some of the things we saw (Saturday). Alex reads it very well. He has a lot of experience doing it, from not only at San Francisco but back to his college days (at Utah).”

We've gotten off track. Wasn't this originally about the awesome deep passing game we're going to see featuring Dexter McCluster?

Explain why it matters that you throw the ball 10 yards and get 10 yards of YAC or you throw it 20 yards and get no YAC?

Please explain the difference in those yards Clay.

I am not the one with unobjective analysis here. You are obsessed with a stat that proves nothing.

LMAO

I'm surprised that boy can read the name on his jersey much less an option.

For Chief Fans unfamiliar with the RGIII/Alex Smith/Michael Vick type QB, here's some basics of read-option stuff:

A defense letters the gaps in an offensive line. The spaces between the center and both guards are called the A gaps; the B gaps are between the guards and tackles; C gaps are between a tackle and a tight end; and D gaps are just beyond a tight end’s outside shoulder. Most defenders are assigned a gap on every snap. If a defensive tackle shoots the A gap, for instance, a linebacker would take the B. When you hear TV analysts saying a player is being undisciplined, it’s often because he’s chasing the flow of a play instead of minding his gap.

The best defense to stop a traditional running offense is the 3-4. With three down linemen responsible for the interior and two outside linebackers covering the edges, all the gaps are covered. The two inside linebackers react to the flow of a play and help form a wall, meaning a properly defensed running play should yield no room for a back to break through the line of scrimmage.

In a single-gap scheme, often a 4-3, a lineman is tasked with clogging one hole and making a tackle if the ballcarrier comes his way. In a two-gap scheme, often a 3-4, he’s responsible for the gap on either his left or right. His main job is to engage blockers so the linebackers behind him can make tackles. The 3-4 alone won’t stop the read-option, because it creates an extra gap, but it allows for the easiest adjustment.

Against a pocket passer in a traditional offense, gap responsibility stops at D. And the defense has the upper hand in such matchups, essentially playing 11 against 10 because the quarterback isn’t a threat to run. But when you introduce a QB who has the ability to fake an inside handoff and then scoot around the weak end of the defense*, the E gap is created in an area that is typically left unguarded. The game now becomes 11-on-11, the new math of the NFL.

We're talking about yards per completion.

That includes YAC.

Alex Smith doesn't throw the ball down the field, and his receivers don't pick up a lot of YAC either.

Sorry to disappoint.

LMAO

Good one Duck.

Your stat shit is a misconception. How often does Tony Romo have great stats? And look at the overrated POS he is.

I'd trust Tony Romo to win a Super Bowl before Alex Smith.

Romo isn't overrated. He's carried that team the past couple years, the team around him has been awful and he's kept them in the hunt every year.

Exactly.

I swear, this place criticizes the shit out of good QBs and defends shitty ones to the death.

I would, too.

And he's miles better than Alex Smith.

In fact he beat him head to head. In 2011.

I am. I was one of the few who wanted Smith and to bring in a QB to groom. I was hoping with 1.1, but it appears we have one for the time being in Bray.

If we had traded for Romo, I'd be homering it up right now.

Same.

Eh, the last really "up" year he had wasn't really all that up. That said, it would probably be a more interesting mix overall than anything Axl will be bringing.

Tony Romo averaged 300 yards game last year.

Alex Smith does it once every 2 or 3 years.

I feel ya', but the stat-line alone just doesn't do much for me.

Big arm, bad decision maker.

Small arm, good decision maker... whats the difference.

I wouldv'e double bagged it.

No, apparently you don't. You're trying to establish a false dichotomy.

If he shakes the rust off, maybe.

One guy carried a team to 8-8 despite the 25th ranked defense and 22nd ranked running game.

Another guy gets carried.

They both have one playoff win for their careers so who gives a shit?

What do you think happens if Romo plays with a top ranked defense and running game?

Throws a pick 6 and loses the game in the final minutes.

Bad decision maker, yet he has a better INT percentage than Alex Smith, while taking WAY more shots downfield.

Perhaps the perception is false, but it does seem that Romo has a habit of pissing himself.

I think it is what it is, thus my not being particularly floored by a superior stat-line.

I know people LOVE to throw numbers around, but they really don't tell the complete tale for better OR worse.

I'd rather have Smith than Romo. And you know how much I like Smith.

I think they're BOTH a a couple of old testicles in a dogs saggy nutsack.

You know what happens when Alex Smith plays with a running game and defense in the bottom 10?

You get this abortion.

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...s/sfo/2007.htm

Shit, this guy played with the 4th ranked defense and produced an 8-8 season.

He's like the love child of Denise and John Proctor. Contrarily positive, narcissistically proselytizing.

No disrespect, but that tells me you're a "play not to lose" type of guy and not a "play to win" type of guy.

Give me a guy who can sling it, throw for 4500 yards and the occasional 4-5 TD game. I can live with mistakes if you have that ability.

Dink and dunk, few mistakes, but can't put the team on your back or keep the defense honest?

No thanks.

Boom goes the dynamite.

Nah, I just don't think Romo's any good. At all.

Spot on.

LMAO

I had to spellcheck that. I'm still not sure I got it right.

I don't think it's a word, but it should be.

Thats entirely fair, go for broke or go home, i prefer that style just as you do.

But Romo in particular has done nothing but go home, he isnt any better than Smythe when you add it up... Clays stats, while severe, dont ask the question of just how much did Romo's decisions throughout a given game affect those rankings.

I'm no Axl homer and will draw pistols on anyone saying different... but Romo is no savior, he's going to excite the hell out of you then crap his pants when it counts, Jim Everett 2.0

Is Smythe any better? i'm atleast willing to wait and see... i have no other choice anyway.

We know what you meant.

LMAO

It's a discipline and coaching thing with Romo as far as his decision making goes.

The guy has had some really really good years throwing that included few mistakes.
4500 yards 26tds 9ints
4200 yards 31tds 10 ints

I just think that certain players have all the tools, but get matchup up with lesser coaches that don't know how to get that skill to equate to wins and losses and that is how I sees Romo.

If JJ brings in a coach next year that can keep Romo in check, that team can instantly be a contender.

He played a hell of a game against NE in 2009, but ended up losing anyway.

Nothing but go home?

He's the only reason they ever even have a chance. Terrible OL, defense prone to the big play, no consistency in the running game.

He's carried that organization, and he gets crucified over dropping a placement. Shit happens.

Romo isn't the type of QB i think of when reading OTW's description. The type of QB i'm thinking of gets picked off by forcing the ball into tight windows and giving his receiver a chance.

Romo is a different kind of QB. He's not just INT prone, he's accident prone. He makes dumb mistakes.

Romo has to constantly try to win shootouts and has put the team on his back for years now.

Id also like to believe that a change of scenery would do him well in helping to limit his distractions.

Smith in 2 playoff games has 5 TD's and 0 INT's. That ain't bad.

And from all accounts has not looked bad in camp so far without having the teams best receiver on the field yet. Most all of the questionable throws he has had usually have Baldwin's name on the receiving end of things, so I see no real cause for alarm just yet.

He seems to have had no problem with Charles, McCluster, Kelce, and Hemmingway so far. If that is the case, put Bowe in with those guys, and things should be just fine. And from what I have read, Avery is running with the 2nd team, so he should be passing Baldwin up for some 1st team reps soon.

Romo is 1-5 in must win games to either get to the playoffs or win in the playoffs. The one win coming in the 09 playoffs. The other five times he has shit the bed. Of all the QBs CP rags on he is deserving of it, IMO.

I think a change of scenery would do well for Romo as well. But I'm not gonna give him the excuse you just did. How many franchise QBs do we see year in and out that put their teams on their backs and lead them to victory? Only about 5, yes, but let's just call Romo what he is...a second tier QB that isn't big time...yet.

He's the only reason they even get to a must-win situation.

He puts up great stats. But his turnovers and propensity to lose any game that he has to win, and it usually has to do with a bone headed turnover that end up costing them. Hes a great fantasy qb. just not sure how big time of a qb he is.

Eh, Palmer threw for 4000 last season.

I'm no Alice Smiff ballwasher, but that's a little ridiculous. You're making Romo sound like Favre or something. I'd be just as unenthusiastic with Romo under center as I'd be with Smiff.

He's also a big part of the reason they go home. The best game I've seen him play was that 09 playoff game. I have to watch them a lot sadly due to my Cowboys fan devil wife. Lol

You get a shoulder injury that effectively ends your next 2 seasons? Yup. Well played sir, well played.

You know he only played 7 games that season..and 4 of them with the injury. He was 2 and 1 prior to being injured. So your commentary was actually on Dilfer.


People should be careful when they play with stats...they might get burned...