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-   -   NFL Draft Statistical Analysis: Projecting NFL QB Failure Using College Stats (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=270426)

MagicHef 02-27-2013 09:21 AM
Huh. For some reason he got left off the list.

Tim Tebow: 85

Pasta Little Brioni 02-27-2013 09:23 AM
Everybody but the Doncos realized he's not a QB, so that wasn't a mistake at all.

KChiefs1 02-27-2013 09:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FringeNC (Post 9441866)
Interesting. Matt Barkley is the best QB ever to come out of school running a pro-style offense.
That's what stuck out to me too...

The Franchise 02-27-2013 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 9444174)
Huh. For some reason he got left off the list.

Tim Tebow: 85
He's not a starting QB. Clausen got left off as well.

Dave Lane 02-27-2013 10:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 9444174)
Huh. For some reason he got left off the list.

Tim Tebow: 85

Sure deal Skippy...

MagicHef 02-27-2013 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pestilence (Post 9444435)
He's not a starting QB. Clausen got left off as well.
That's stupid. This is trying to predict NFL success using college stats. Only college stats should matter.

Also, he has started more games than Kaepernick, Weeden, or any of the 2013 QBs.

Hammock Parties 02-27-2013 10:58 AM
This includes several QB busts in the high numbers so I don't like it.

I prefer the simpler rule of 26-27-60.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/2/1...erback-success

Quote:
The rule predicted that if a NFL prospect scored at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, started at least 27 games in college, and completed at least 60 percent of his passes, he would succeed in the NFL, if he did not meet all three criteria, he would fail.

At the time of the article the rule was a fairly accurate at dividing successful NFL quarterbacks from disappointments. The rule predicted success for Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan. Meanwhile it predicted failure for Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, David Carr, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell.

RealSNR 02-27-2013 10:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 9444101)
It's hilarious seeing people wanting to add and subtract from the formula.

What's the matter, not happy with the results?

The simple fact is that it's pretty damn accurate when it comes to predicting failure.

Stop trying to alter it so that it says what you want.
Geno Smith scored in the 80s. No amount of fuxing around with the formula is going to put him below 20, which is technically all that matters.

htismaqe 02-27-2013 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pestilence (Post 9444435)
He's not a starting QB. Clausen got left off as well.
Jimmy wasn't a 1st round pick. This only includes 1st rounders.

htismaqe 02-27-2013 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9444495)
Geno Smith scored in the 80s. No amount of fuxing around with the formula is going to put him below 20, which is technically all that matters.
Somebody gets it.

:thumb:

htismaqe 02-27-2013 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoWalrus (Post 9444491)
This includes several QB busts in the high numbers so I don't like it.

I prefer the simpler rule of 26-27-60.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/2/1...erback-success
You're looking at it incorrectly.

Start with the low numbers first.

MagicHef 02-27-2013 11:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9444495)
Geno Smith scored in the 80s. No amount of fuxing around with the formula is going to put him below 20, which is technically all that matters.
Absolutely. He's right there below Tebow.

slimdagreat 02-27-2013 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pestilence (Post 9441871)
Considering that he has 47 starts under his belt....
i wish there was a way to adjust the formula for QBs that played in spread offenses so their stats are inflated

slimdagreat 02-27-2013 11:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoWalrus (Post 9444491)
This includes several QB busts in the high numbers so I don't like it.

I prefer the simpler rule of 26-27-60.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/2/1...erback-success
I don't like using the Wonderlic as an indicator because we have to assume players are taking it seriously, and didn't Dan Marino get like a 10?


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