DJ's left nut |
10-13-2015 12:18 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
(Post 11799349)
For all the Devil Magic, the Cards haven't been terrible lucky in the PS. They were the best team in baseball in 2004 and '05 and won zero WS games out of it.
They were the best team in 2013 and lost to a one year fluke in Boston.
The teams in 2012 and 2014 were better than the Giants, but the '06 and '11 teams were far inferior to the Mets, Tigers, Phillies, and Rangers.
Out of this 15 year run they probably should have gotten another WS or two, but it's somewhat tempered by the fact that they won two when they shouldn't have.
This team rode a wave of unsustainable run prevention and HR/FB luck. When it runs out, it's a good team, but not much more than an 88-92 win one.
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The thing is, if you look at the number of playoff appearances they've had over their recent golden streak and then just assume them all to be random coin flips, you'd get about what the Cardinals have had. In fact, they'd probably done far better.
So 12 playoff appearances over the last 15 years and if you just go with random chance you get:
6 NLCS appearances, 3 WS appearances and 1, maybe 2 WS championships.
The real outlier comes with the Cardinals absolute dominance in the LDS. The Cards have made it to the LCS an amazing 9 times, only losing twice in the LDS over that period (so far). In the LCS appearances, they've gone 4-5; so pretty random. In the WS they've gone 2-2.
So to my eyes, they're simply due to start losing in the LCS more often. I'm to the point as a baseball fan that I really do see the MLB post-season as blind !@#$ing luck - a complete crap shoot. There's no rhyme or reason to it at this point.
The way to win a lot of championships is to get a lot of bites at the apple. Make it to the post-season 16 times and over that stretch you should get 2 world championships and 4 pennants out of it. I'd like to believe otherwise, but I've seen too many random outcomes in a short series to believe that the best teams really win in the post-season (including the 2 WS the Cards have won over the last decade).
That's why I'm generally opposed to win-now moves, especially at the deadline. Just make it to the post-season as often as possible and sooner or later things will come together for you.
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