I think it’s fine to expect him to pass for more than 4000, I don’t think accumulating stats will be his issue. I think what we will want him to do better will be helping out the defense by controlling the clock better. Peyton Manning was the best I’ve ever seen at doing it, but I think it’s a key skill to have if you are going to be a top-notch QB in this league. Especially if you are playing with a middling defense. Mahomes will need to understand that sometimes a first down is more valuable than a TD. As wrong as Smith was to not take the shots downfield when he had them handed to him on a platter, he won a few games for us controlling the clock with agonizingly long drives that ended with a FG.

I think Mahomes understands that, but we shall see. As Smith has shown us, you can win a lot of games in this league without throwing for 4000 yards. Matt Stafford is a good example of how throwing for a ton of yards can mean very little in terms of winning.

I think Mahomes will get his stats, I just hope they translate into wins as well. I can’t wait to watch it either way.

alexsexuals have all the ammo to troll you now because of your tepid support of Mahomes. Quit being a pussy and support Mahomes. Go out on a limb. I did.

My only fear is that Andy is what will truly hold Mahomes back. He may be a QB whisperer, but he also has a really bad habit of going full fetal position whenever he gets a lead of any type. Andy needs to channel his inner 12 year old at a punt, pass, and kick competition and learn to put his foot on the opponents neck and jump up and down.

Some of you dolts have become so gun shy that you actually fear that Mahomes will score too many points. News flash: The team that scores the most points wins, not the team that holds the ball the longest.

You want to wear out a defense? Air it out with a ton of play action pass. Teams have to respect Hunt, and yet at the same time they have to cover two legit world class track stars with hands. Good luck with that. Al Davis looks at KCs recievers and gets wood in the grave. (And don't forget, we also have one of the top TEs in the game.)

If I had my druthers, we'd kick Colquitt to the curb. **** punting when you have the offensive weapons we have.

I'm sticking to it: Mahomes 5K. Conservative playcalling is the only thing standing in the way of that achievement.

I don’t care about his yards. But I will literally put money down he throws over 30 TDS. He’s gonna break the Chiefs record in his first full season.

My minimum expectations are 4000+ yards & 30+ TD’s.

He needs to break Lenny’s TD pass record.

Realistic I think he can break Len Dawson records in five years and have us Super Bowl contention throughout his career hopefully next 15 years.

He put up 284 on the road, in freezing temps against a divisional rival, in his first ever game...and didn't play every series. He also did that without Hill, Watkins, Kelce and Hunt (1st series).

284 x 16 = 4544

4000 is his floor.

He threw for over 700 yards in a single game...dudes a baller.

I personally think the kid is going to light it up, but with that is going to come some interceptions.

Give me 4,400 yards, 29 TD and 19 INT.

don't short the guy, he had over 800 yards in that game alone :thumb:

He didn't throw a lot of intercepted in college so I'm not really expecting a lot of them even his first couple of years however if he does it's a learning experience and coaches have praised the kid for not making same mistakes and I know he can make up for them anyway.


All these years waiting for a draft pick prospect I can't believe he's here and could be better than imagine.

Put this post in NSFW reads like a Penthouse Forum. :whackit:

Casshole in NE probably did.


It was Big 12 defense and TT. Different animal. There will be INTs.

My expectations for Mahomes is ~4000 yards with 28 passing touchdowns. Maybe the comparable isn't perfect since Rodgers had a couple more years of being the backup behind Favre but I think rookie Aaron Rodgers numbers is what we can expect. Probably a few more interceptions than we would like to see (my guess is around 13 INTs).

We are going polar opposite from way too conservative Alex Smith to an ultra aggressive Patrick Mahomes, even in the Denver game there were a couple decisions that were too risky (deep to Harris on the last drive, across his body to Sherman in the start of the 4th). I think we'll fare better team wise than Green Bay did in Rodgers first year though at 6-10. I have the Chiefs being around 9-7, we'll see how the draft goes.

This is lighting it up?

Less than 300 ypg average. 1.8 Td's a game with 1.2 Int average.

Kinda shitty really.

4400 yards and 29 TD's would be top 5 in both categories respectively. 19 INT's is quite a bit though.

no., not really

thats a great season for any rookie, probably top 1% to ever play the game

why dont you list all the rookies that have had 4400 yards passing and 30 TD

ill wait here

Mahomes is not a rookie.

So you are saying past stats from other QB's can predict what Mahomes will do? Interesting.

I am sure Andy is expecting him to throw at least 2 TDs a game with all of those weapons and a solid running game- do you think they would have moved up in the draft for a QB if they thought he could not even average 2 TD's a game? They just traded a guy that couldn't do it.

6700 yds, 59td 3 int, book it! Chiefs go 9-7 and miss the playoffs because they give up a league record 62 field goals in the Pittsburgh game.

10,567 yards 76TD

picking some arbitrary number is stupid

if he NEEDS to throw 2 TD a game he will try...but what if we dont need to? I seriously doubt one of the top 10 goals for mahomes is focusing on throwing 2 td per game

its much more fundamental than that - reads, audibles, mastering the playbook under stress, technical / mechanical improvements etc...


sure, he might throw 2 TD a game and break the KC record for TD's by a QB.

hell if he doesnt do it this year i bet he will do it at some point...but I dont think youre correct in saying that is expected of him

edit: and fine he has played in 1 game...so he isnt a rookie .but this is his 1st season as the starter......so show me this list of guys who have played in 1 game or less and then get 4400 yards in their 1st season as starter...is it a pretty long list of QB's? I heard marino did it in 1984 ...but he started 10 games the year prior

I just want to see him get better every week/learn from his mistakes.

If that happens, the stats will come.

this. full stop.

he will smash all chiefs records if he just keeps getting better

I don't care what kind of numbers he puts up.

The only prediction I'll make is, we'll be pretty damn happy with our shiny new QB.

I think Mahomes is going to HAVE to throw at least 2 TD's a game for us to win. I don't expect the defense to hold teams under 20 a game- look at our schedule.

And once again- whatever QB's did in the past has no bearing on Mahomes this year.

Gonna go out on a limb... more career wins than losses.

A shitton more

This will be my last post on the subject since we're hijacking the hell out of Tims thread, but I'm not have you tell me in no uncertain terms that Rodgers is better

And yes, I can spin the era differences... only one of those players came up during the 'Manning Rules' era, and it wasnt Brett Favre

You're welcome to your opinion, as its an argument no one can win, just like its impossible to say Montana meant more than Johnny U... its likewise impossible to say Rodgers > Favre

My guess is its largely a generational thing, you're likely in your 20s-30s and have watched more Rodgers, where I'm creeping up on 50 and watched more Favre

Sorry Tim, its my last post on this

Not that I disagree, but that'd be a team expectation more than a Mahomes expectation.

Umm... I shouldn't even respond to this but I will...

4400 yards would have put him 4th in the NFL in 2017.
29 TD's would have tied him for 4th in the NFL in 2017.
I feel like I"m going full homer just by thinking he will get anywhere near those numbers, when history says it's highly unlikely.

19 INTs are only 4 more than Peyton Manning threw in his 2nd season and 9 less than he threw his rookie year. Dan Marino, even in his epic 2nd season, threw 17 picks. Drew Brees, who played in only 1 game as a rookie as well, threw 16 picks. The list goes on.

Point is, even some of the better QBs of the past 20 years have had to learn the hard way. This kid is a risk taker and he's likely going to throw quite a few picks his first year out the gate.

If I were looking more at history and less at how I feel about this kid's abilities, I'd probably have him around 3500 yards, 20 tds and 17 ints as a best-case scenario. I chose instead to go full homer.

If you're expecting some crazy shit like 4700 yards, 35 tds and 10 ints in year 1, I think you ought to temper your expectations.

umm

ok lil chiefy

"history doesn't matter"

nevermind the list of QB's who have gotten 4400 yards and 30 td in their 1st starting season is about 1 line long

This is the kind of answer I was hoping to see. I believe there are going to be more mistakes than people realize....and from the perceived expectations of this place, it doesn't seem as though there will be much patience.

Yes, but with getting better will come statistics. He isn't throwing for zero yards and zero touchdowns.

I'm going to put my official guess down at:

3742 yards
31 TDs
13 INTs
11-5 overall record
Makes playoffs

I predict higher ratings.

MUCH higher.

With the weapons we have and the sheer amount of passes this kid is going to throw in this offense, I would be surprised if he threw less than 30 TD’s.

But that means more INT’s too.

After thoroughly watching college tape this kid just has superstar ability. I'm counting on the new OC to light a fire under the feet of the OL and make those guys play better. If he accomplishes that I think we contend this year, and that's praying the draft goes well. The draft won't go the way I'd prefer, getting either the G Hernandez or Billy Price, then Ian Thomas TE in the 3rd and best available DB using next years 2nd in the Peters trade to get where we need to for another CB or Safety. Then I'm hoping we can pluck some more DB's from other practice squads for depth. I am open to linebacker depth with the 4th rounder picks and more OL help in the 6th round.

My biggest concern is how many drives Harris ruins if he isn't replaced. Also, I'm not a Bailey fan so something has to happen there.

Bottom line is Mahomes is going to do well THIS season. How much we win really depends on the others.

The thing is though that he has already proven he can throw an Interception and still win. That's huge. Even had us out to a 14 point lead before that was given away by Bray.

If Smith turned it over... even once... there was a better than 50% chance we were going to lose. I posted the numbers on it once, so I know that is correct.

Brett Favre won a lot of games throwing a lot of interceptions so I'm not overly concerned. What I was trying to relay to halfwit was that he should probably expect them to come in a QB's first season playing. I certainly don't expect 10 or fewer interceptions from a guy that plays like Mahomes plays.

4,300 yards, 62% completion, 32 TDs, 16 INTs, 250 rush yards, 2 rush TDs

He'll more than make up for the INTs with more big plays, more clutch plays and the big two weaknesses of Alex Smith & his offenses will become strengths: 3rd downs and redzone. You'll see our 3rd down % & redzone % go from bottom of the league to top 1/3rd of the league this year. It's gunna be great.

I knew what you meant crow, and I agree. I just like the fact that if he does average an interception per game, we are not screwed like we would have been in the past.

Mahomes only threw 29 INTs in his entire college career...1350 attempts and 11,200 yards over 2 1/2 seasons.

Why do people think he threw a lot of INTs? Darnold threw 22 on 500 less throws. Rosen had 26 on 200 less attempts...so he's pretty much on par with him and safer than Darnold.

I dont think it's being a "homer" to think he'll eclipse 4000 yards...that's 250 a game. His style is to throw... a lot.

Now you're just inviting someone to throw out Keesum's stats... he threw an INT ever 48 pass attempts while it was every 46 for Mahomes.

Keenum is an average NFL quarterback. All he ever was and all he ever will be

Oh, I'm not saying he's the next big thing...

Keenum has never..in his entire existence, made throws like Mahomes.

The only reason he's on Denver's team is because he didn't turn the ball over. SO in that regard, Mahomes is in good company...

If we wanted to keep INTs down we would have ****ing kept Alex.

Andy Reid obviously doesn't care about that shit anymore. He still wants to keep down the picks, but if a few more happen than last year, he'll take that hit on the nose in the name of bigger plays in clutch situations.

That's totally what he should do with the gun slinger.

because of your gayness You need to give up your moderator card.

It appears they will be playing mostly spread. If the Chiefs play faster, Mahomes' numbers will destroy all the Chiefs passing records his first year.

Patrick's stats will be determined by the situations that each game presents. If we're in a shootout where he has to match touchdown for touchdown then he could compile massive yards passing and touchdowns and if we get into a blowout situation where we have a 4 touchdown lead in the third quarter Andy might put the backup in to save Pat for another day. The important thing to cherish is the fact that we will never feel like we don't have a chance to compete in every game. As long as Patrick is on the field then the Chiefs will have a chance to get a win. We might not win every game but I'll bet that every game will be exciting for Chiefs fans.

If he doesn't throw a football over the sun at least once next year I'm gonna be pretty bummed out.

200 yards/game? With talent all over the field? Ha....please.

Quit being pussies. This ain't your typical first year starter or situation that one normally walks into.

For ****s sake, some INT’s happen to almost every good QB:

DeShaun Watson was on pace to throw 18 INT’s last season.
Drew Brees threw 15 or more INT’s in a season NINE seasons of his career. That’s over HALF of his goddamn years as a starter.
Phillip Rivers has thrown 15 or more INT’s in 5 of his 12 years as a starter. Almost ****ing half.
Peyton Manning has 8 years of 15 or more INT’s.
Andrew ****ing Luck, the Jesus Christ of QB’s, has 68 INT’s in 70 games played.

Good QB’s turn the ball over. It’s bound to happen, especially with gunslingers. It’s not the end of the ****ing world.

Obviously we hope that Pat can master his efficiency like Aaron Rodgers, but idk if that is possible.

This... as long as the yards, TDs, completion %, decision making, etc results in many more wins than losses... turnovers are just part of it.

+1 Would be nice! Cause Chiefs

Great post. I understand what you are saying- and I agree. If Mahomes wins 10 games with that tough schedule, puts up 4k in yards and 30 Td's, we win the West again and at least a playoff game- that would be an amazing 2nd year for him. Wins are the best stat.

With that said- I still have this feeling that Mahomes is going blow things up.

I think the standard that we judge QB's now is going to change with these young guns coming in and more wide-open offenses. A 300-yard game will become the average and a 400-yard game will be the measuring stick of a great game.

All signs indicate that Reid is going to come out with something different the NFL has not seen before. It will take teams a while to adjust. Unless I am completely missing something with the signing of Sammy- this offense will be the best in Chiefs history (at least on paper). This is why I said less than 2 TD's a game seemed low. We saw Watson put up eye-popping numbers in Houston last year- I think Mahomes will so the same.

I am going on Record with these numbers:

31.33 completions per game X 16 games= 501.28 X 9.2 per attempt= 4612 Total passing yards.

63% completion on 49.73 attempts per game. 2.3 TD's per game X 16= 36.8 rounded up to 37 Total passing TD's

27 yards per game rushing X 16 games = 432 Total Rushing Yards

.04 Rushing TD's per game X 16 games= 4 Rushing TD's

.90 INTs per game X 16 = 14.5 rounded up to 15 INTs.

What do you base this on?

Did Denver sign the Vikings WR corps?

Mostly on how they came out last year, especially the first game against New England.

And how about spending that kind of money on bringing Sammy in. Mr. Veech said they have been targeting him since last year. Why? They must have a specific offense in mind and felt Sammy will be a key piece in it.

Lastly, Andy has talked about playing to Mahomes strengths, which is pushing the ball down the field in chunks of yards. We saw him design an offense to utilize Alex's strengths- I think we can expect it this year with Mahomes.

I just hope that Andy has a part 2 plan and makes adjustments when teams have film on Mahomes. He did not make adjustments last year and we went into a major slump on offense. I hope he learned something from that.

You do have a lot to learn so pay attention here.

Super Bowl ? Sure it's a long shot, but just saying That the Patriots wasn't expecting Tom Brady to win a SB when Bledsoe went down with an injury, so anything is possible, , but as I also mentioned, long shot.

4000 yards plus, this is easy. Look at his receivers, he is with the 1's, not back ups. The kid has so much talent, he is easily the most gifted QB KC has ever had. If he stays healthy, it's not a matter of if, but when he passes Lenny Dawson as the best in KC history.

Literally, the sky is the limit with this kid.

Halfcan, 5000 yards and 40 TDs or your disappointed?

If he's not at 5000 yards and 40 TDs by week 8 I'm furious and screaming for Henne.

I'm a math geek. I looked at the numbers and these mistakes popped out at me. Funny thing is, that the hardest math was all right. It was the easy ones that you messed up. lLMAO

And don't get defensive. I'm just busting your chops a bit. Not trying to be a math nazi.

Alex struggles to make adjustments. He wasn't that type of quarterback

Let's see what Mahomes can do

ROFL

I broke the Cardinal rule- Always double check your numbers.

Math is not my friend.

No I just posted what I think Mahomes could do. Most of those averages are what he did in college, some are less and a few adjusted higher. He is a much better QB than he was two or three years ago. Mahomes will have his second training camp and preseason to develope a connection with his receivers. Plus we have a coach that loves to pass the ball.

I would be disappointed if we don't win the West again and at least a Playoff game. With so much talent on this team I think the Chiefs will be hard to beat.

Mahomes is a bust.

All that math doesn't mean anything when the numbers you are using are insane- 50 pass attempts a game with 31 completions per game?

7-9, 4kyards passing, 28tds, 18ints, 400rushing with 3 tds

MOAR

AVG per game passing - 21/35, 11ypc, 2TD, 1.3INT
AVG per game rushing - 6 carries, 4ypc, .25TD

Totals: 60% comp, 3696yds passing, 32TD, 21INT; 384yds rushing, 4TDs

That would be a tremendous, exciting first year as a starter. Gunslinger will have a lot of INTs (comparative to Smith), but will also make more big plays & lead a dynamic offense.

FYP

And OL

Mahomes in 2016

49.25 attempts per game and 32.33 completions per game. 65.7 %

Last year Green Bay had 44.67 passing attempts per game and Arizona had 44.

11.5 Offensive drives per game - Mahomes would have to pass 4.34 attempts per drive.

Thats because you (like others) dont understand the difference between what he 'could do' versus what is expected of him.

And, this is in spite of the fact that the thread is LITERALLY titled 'realistic expectations '

Those two things are different...and there is a lot of space betwixt

I Expect him to be a better QB than he was in college. Mahomes put up record breaking numbers- so that shows he CAN do it.

Plus he will have had a year under Alex, his first NFL game, 2 training camps and 2 presesons - to learn and grow before the season starts.

So I will stick by the numbers and put that as my Expectations.

This offense is loaded and Mahomes will have the best talent around him he ever has. So I don't see why people believe he will put up Alex type numbers with double the interceptions?

Alex had his best season of all time last year

Id be thrilled with alex numbers from last year, even with 2x the picks

If Patrick even comes close to putting up the same offensive numbers that he did in college there's no team in the NFL that will be able to keep up with the Chiefs. Our defense might not be the 1985 Bears but we aren't going to allow 45 points per game either. Like I said earlier each game's ebb and flow will determine his final numbers. Some games he will need to surpass 400 yards to get the win and some games he might not even play the whole game because we have a big lead.

I personnally feel that most Chiefs fans overrate how good Mahomes will be next year but underrate the defense going into next year, taking into account the upcoming draft.

No doubt for a young 1st year starter

Really?

Alex averaged 8 yards per attempt but had 10 games where he was under that- with 2 games Giants and Buffalo he couldn't even manage 6 yards per throw.

Alex had 5 300 yard games but 6 games he couldn't put up 250 yards and 2 games LA Chargers 155 yards and Buffalo 199 yards- could not even hit 200 yards for the entire game.

6 games with only 1 TD thrown- and 2 games he could not even throw 1 TD

Alex curled up for 35 sacks as well.


Playoff game- managed his pedestrian 8 yards a throw took 4 sacks, only threw 2 TDs (first half) and Nothing 2nd half at all. all for a whopping 264 yards for a Loss at Home.

Obviously the Chiefs were not thrilled with those career numbers or he would still be here.

I literally have no idea where you are getting these stats from. Brett Hundley only threw over 40 attempts in two games (vs CLE & vs MIN). Aaron Rodgers himself only averaged 39 attempts in the 6 games he was healthy (got injured and threw 4 attempts in one game but I excluded that).

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...ualified=false

League leader in passing attempts last season: NYG with 608 passing attempts. We divide 608 passing attempts over 16 games and we come out to 38 passing attempts per game.

Mahomes in 2016- at Texas Tech, you're not gonna compare college stats to the pro's are you? New England this season lead the NFL in plays from scrimmage with 1070- over a 16 game season that roughly equates to 67 plays from scrimmage per game. You want to know how many plays from scrimmage Texas Tech averaged? 87.

You can't compare NCAA to the NFL, and where ever you are getting your numbers from they aren't accurate.