ChiefsPlanet - Weather **** Official Severe Weather 2016 Repository Thread ****

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**** Official Severe Weather 2016 Repository Thread **** (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=299502)

Good luck down there folks

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chieficus (Post 12195121)

I haven't looked at the forecast models since about 4:30. IF I were to chase tomorrow, I'd probably aim to be somewhere between Wichita and Salina around 4pm. But I can't tomorrow.

That said, the models were still all over the place, so it won't be until the morning at the soonest that things will become more clear. And it all depends on the location of the developing low pressure plus morning precipitation and cloud cover.

The risks put out already follow the chance of everything setting up, storms forming along I-35/135 between 3-5pm, greater tornado threat in central KS, greater large hail threat in central OK. Storms moving into MO between 9-11pm as a line with a wind threat.

But... One of the models that's been performing better has the low further south east, a stronger cap, and weaker surface winds. That would fire a few storms in E OK and E/NE KS around 7pm, and with a weaker server threat.

Still another model that's usually not bad is banking on greater cloud cover and lower temperature, resulting in run of the mill storms.

If it pops, they're gonna pop. If not, then little will happen. It's an uncertainty with two extremes.

You seem to have a good knowledge of weather. Is it a profession or hobby?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcfanXIII (Post 12195652)

You seem to have a good knowledge of weather. Is it a profession or hobby?

Degree in meteorology from Oklahoma, plus 15+ years chasing experience. Career took a different path, but its education + hobby.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chieficus (Post 12195737)

Degree in meteorology from Oklahoma, plus 15+ years chasing experience. Career took a different path, but its education + hobby.

I appreciate the input.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chieficus (Post 12195737)

Degree in meteorology from Oklahoma, plus 15+ years chasing experience. Career took a different path, but its education + hobby.

So you're saying you are the weather guy in Columbia

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 12195839)

So you're saying you are the weather guy in Columbia

Um... No. (not sure if I'm missing a joke there?)

This is what I think will happen today (and like I said above, I do have a degree in meteorology and years of chase experience where I do my own severe forecasts to decide where to go--so I do have knowhow, BUT I'm not a seasoned forecaster and anything I state should be taken in consultation with those produced by the professionals /disclaimer)...

Summary: Expect severe storms to develop across western OK and central KS in the next few hours. Hail will be the primary threat; though there appears to be a stronger tornado threat across central KS, with a weaker threat into OK. The storms will quickly form a line with embedded supercells traveling across central OK and eastern KS around 6-8pm. Then as the sun sets, the storms will congeal into a line that will push into western MO around 10pm with wind and small hail being the main threats, but also the possibility of an embedded small tornado.

Details: The main low is over central CO with a secondary low over central KS. The dryline runs along the OK/TX-panhandle border before turning NE toward Wichita. A stationary boundary is draped along I-70, and a weak cold front along the dryline.

Even with current convection in east-central to NE OK, storms are expected to fire along the dryline by 4pm. These should quickly become supercellular with the threat of large hail and tornadoes. By 6pm, storm coverage will be widespread and two lines will begin to form with embedded supercells: one line in KS and the other in OK. With the embedded cells, all forms of severe threat are still possible, especially as the KS storms enter into an environment with better shear.

By 10pm, these lines will have joined into a large complex bringing heavy rain and the possibility of wind and hail.

One forecast model has the storms in SW OK holding off until near 7pm. This could result in a later hail and tornado threat across central OK if this occurs. The same model also delays storms pushing into MO from KS until around 3am.

If you live in OK or central and eastern KS, pay attention to the weather tonight. Us western MO folks will need to keep an eye out as well during the night.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Simply Red (Post 12195658)

http://i.imgur.com/kLQFZMU.jpg

Reminds me of the Toby Keith music video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvyTY_oYR_c

And there's your first tornado watch...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0108.html

Most of central and eastern KS

PDS watch down in Oklahoma. Yikes.

First Tornado Warning SW of Wichita .

Storms popping closer to the KS border earlier than expected. Several thunderstorm warnings in E KS.