I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?

If a guy changes the game truly and has to be account for every play, I’d say you keep him.

Hill definitely falls under that category and Jones and Ford have so far this year. I’d keep Jones.

You can’t replicate what Hill does. He has to be schemed for every play. Safety help. Off coverage. All kinds of shit, jet motion, option, you name it.

No one can do what he does. Sean Payton and Drew Brees even said he’s the most dangerous player in football just a week ago.

Tyreek is absolutely worth the money. Completely changes how DC’s call plays and how the defensive players behave on the field. This opens up things all over the field for other receivers.

Yeah, I follow. But I still can't get over how often these things DON'T work out. And if you are going to tell me that these guys are on shit teams so we shouldn't hold that against them, the same argument can be made for good teams. If Brown/Donald was on a shit team would they still produce?

LAR was getting pressure from a bunch of dudes not making Donald money and Rape gets production out of a bunch of dudes. I think Brown is a success story because they aren't as good when he's out.

I am glad you made this thread though because it’s a good time to discuss these things over the bye.

Personally, I don’t expect us to be active in FA really at all this year. I think Veach knows that he’s got a loaded roster that will require plenty of cap space to maintain, and his draft choice pool in 2019 is pretty solid. I don’t imagine he’s going to tie much guaranteed money into any UFAs from other teams knowing all of these big decisions that are coming ahead.

We’re going to build through the draft, but unlike the Packers (who have tried to do that despite a lack of overall strong roster talent), we already have the star talent on the roster to reload cost efficiently.

As much as I love Mahomes and want to declare him the messiah, he’s not this good without Tyreek. Pay Hill his money and let’s fix this defensive secondary before we need to make Pat the highest player ever.

Yeah, I'm with you, but there are lots of good offenses that operate without a dude like Hill (Because there aren't any). But the question was can you replace the production? And I get that it is isn't just catches, it's getting other dudes open.

I'm not necessarily opposed to paying him, It's just going to really strap our cap and if there is and injury, like there often is for explosive speed guys, man we are ****ed. Again. Like usual. I just think we need to be open to letting him walk.

Realistically we don't need to make each and every one of these decisions at the same time. They're likely going to be staggered and we have draft capital to plug some holes so it's not as daunting as it sounds.

That said, the thought of watching Tyreek Hill on any other team in the NFL makes me want to vomit. He makes so many other parts of our offense more effective that his individual stats might underrepresent his contribution as much as any player in the NFL (if that's even possible looking at a 1600yd season). I was always a huge Percy Harvin fan as he was the most explosive football player I had ever seen, but Hill runs circles around him. Pay the man his money.

Two nickels don’t equal a dime. Pay hill.


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I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar.

It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace

You pay Hill. Period. If he gets hurt, you shake your head and hope your stud QB can help elevate the practice squad guy that gets called up but, under no circumstance should Tyreek Hill play a snap for another team until he is past 30, at the least.

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.