Check splits by score differential:
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...004_splits.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.co...010_splits.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.co...013_splits.htm My conclusion without looking really closely: Reid needs Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, Brian Westbrook and Jim Johnson to be successful. |
It doesn't matter who the OC is Andy Reid is a pass happy coach and wont work well with an OC who doesn't want to pass 2/3 of the time. Andy Reid could give a **** about the run he wouldn't run it all a game if he thought he could. His philosophy is to pass first pass second pass third and if that doesn't work then pass again. He will pass with the lead he will pass if you need one yard to get the first he will pass gas on the sidelines he will tell the OC to call pass plays, doesn't matter who the OC is.
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This isn't one of those. |
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2013 -> Chiefs had a decent/good O-line
2014 -> Chiefs have shitty O-line |
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Turnovers matter. Andy Reid is 21-16 with Kansas City (including playoffs), and his team is 3-10 when losing the turnover battle. Looking even deeper, his team is 4-2 when they break even. This leaves the Chiefs at 14-4 when they generate at least 1 more turnover than their opponents. The only game KC has lost when they've produced 2 or more turnovers than their opponents is the Wild Card debacle against Indianapolis when they posted a +3 mark there. Bottom line, Bob Sutton's defense needs to force turnovers and Reid's offense needs to take care of the ball. So far in 2015, the Chiefs are +2, -4, -1, and -1 respectively in turnover differential, and their record reflects that statistic at 1-3.
I'll keep digging for more answers. |
How important is defending the run? Well, Andy Reid's teams have gone 10-13 when giving up 100 yards or more on the ground. Not as bad as one might expect, but its less than a 50/50 chance to win.
How about points for and against? The Chiefs have went 17-7 when they've scored more than 20 points. When they don't score more than 20? 4-9. So, it is important to put at least 20 on the board, and the Chiefs have done so nearly 65% of the time. When KC gives up more than 20 points, they are a staggering 1-14 under Reid's watch. That win was the 56-31 festival in Oakland in 2013. Verdict is if the Chiefs' defense falters, KC virtually has no shot of winning. Obviously the most important statistic is the Chiefs giving up 20 or less points, with a record of 20-2. |
A little bit more with tying turnover margin to PF and PA... In the 13 games KC has lost the turnover battle, they have given up more than 20 points 8 times. This is an obvious correlation, that other teams will score more points when you give them the ball, but its important nonetheless. One thing that did stick out is that the Chiefs scored more than 20 points on 6 occasions when they lost the turnover battle. The Chiefs have shown that they can score enough points to win despite losing the turnover battle about half the time but they give up too many about 2/3 of the time. This math says the Chiefs will win 1 out of every 4 games they lose the turnover battle in (28%). Statistically speaking, that's about spot on with their 3/13 mark (23%).
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How often does the Chiefs' scoring more than 20 points go hand-in-hand with the defense giving up less than 21? Well, it happened 16 times in 21 wins (76%), so frequently. That also means that the Chiefs offense has scored more than 20 points more frequently when the defense gives up 20 or less points than if the defense gives up more than 20 points. KC's offense, remember, scored more than 20 points in 24 contests. So, 67% (16/24) of the time that the offense scores more than 20 points, it does so when the defense gives up 20 or less. Perhaps KC's best offense is a great defense.
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32:29 26:32 31:32 25:31 30:27 That's an average pass:ratio of 29:30 |
We win with defense. We lose with Alex.
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