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-   -   NFL Draft Statistical Analysis: Projecting NFL QB Failure Using College Stats (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=270426)

htismaqe 02-26-2013 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 9441901)
I think a metric that should be included would be quality of opponents. He slightly accounts for that with a broad stroke of "BCS or Non-BCS." They should look at the teams they played against and calculate those opponents win/loss percentage over the course of the respective QB's starts.

Also, you could take that one step further and take into account the quality of the defenses they played against over the course of their starts.

This way it would better categorize those shitty ass QB's from USC and the rest of the lame ass PAC 10/12.

It wouldn't change much really. For instance, one of the most glaring examples at the top of the list is Tim Couch, who played in the SEC.

RyFo18 02-26-2013 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyFo18 (Post 9441884)
This is for the first person that points out Matt Leinart and/or Tim Couch:

rochambeau

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla (Post 9441900)
It appears we should sign Leinart immediately.

;)

Kidding or not: rochambeau

htismaqe 02-26-2013 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyFo18 (Post 9441884)
This is for the first person that points out Matt Leinart and/or Tim Couch:

rochambeau

This isn't a predictor of success. It's a predictor failure. As you near the top of that list (working up from the bottom), the presence of Tim Couch indicates that your chance of being a complete bust is decreasing into the sub-20% range.

Dante84 02-26-2013 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 9441901)
I think a metric that should be included would be quality of opponents. He slightly accounts for that with a broad stroke of "BCS or Non-BCS." They should look at the teams they played against and calculate those opponents win/loss percentage over the course of the respective QB's starts.

Also, you could take that one step further and take into account the quality of the defenses they played against over the course of their starts.

This way it would better categorize those shitty ass QB's from USC and the rest of the lame ass PAC 10/12.

ALSO

You should take into account the quality of the QB's own Defense, Special Teams, Running game, and WR dropped balls. This way you know what kind of support they had.

If they have a ton of support, it might ding them. If they performed well in spite of shitty support (Geno) it would be a credit to them.

The Franchise 02-26-2013 04:01 PM

Look at Peyton Manning compared to Ryan Leaf just based on college stats...

digger 02-26-2013 04:02 PM

Quarterback Rating
The NCAA formula is: [ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ].

Hootie 02-26-2013 04:02 PM

lets remember one thing

Flacco is a recent phenomenon.

if Rahim Moore didn't exist the majority would still consider him an inconsistent, non-franchise QB

htismaqe 02-26-2013 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 9441914)
ALSO

You should take into account the quality of the QB's own Defense, Special Teams, Running game, and WR dropped balls. This way you know what kind of support they had.

If they have a ton of support, it might ding them. If they performed well in spite of shitty support (Geno) it would be a credit to them.

I don't think you're going to appreciably alter the results, you're just making the calculation more difficult.

htismaqe 02-26-2013 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peyton's Princess (Post 9441924)
lets remember one thing

Flacco is a recent phenomenon.

if Rahim Moore didn't exist the majority would still consider him an inconsistent, non-franchise QB

This is precisely why I made the post I did.

This isn't an indicator of SUCCESS, it's an indicator of FAILURE.

Flacco is clearly NOT a failure and his number would put him at the very bottom of the "strong likelihood of success" category. That means he might have a 30 or 40% chance of sucess if he's at the bottom of that group.

But it also means he has a near zero chance of being a COMPLETE BUST.

Dante84 02-26-2013 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 9441926)
I don't think you're going to appreciably alter the results, you're just making the calculation more difficult.

Maybe. I'm just throwing shit out there.

Maybe CDCOX wants to get all nasty with it.

unlurking 02-26-2013 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84 (Post 9441933)
Maybe. I'm just throwing shit out there.

Maybe CDCOX wants to get all nasty with it.

You're missing the point. This is ESPN's formula. ESPN is telling us there are no good QB options. According to THEIR formula, Geno is about as can't miss as you can get.

The Franchise 02-26-2013 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by unlurking (Post 9441946)
You're missing the point. This is ESPN's formula. ESPN is telling us there are no good QB options. According to THEIR formula, Geno is about as can't miss as you can get.

Keep in mind......from 2009.

unlurking 02-26-2013 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence (Post 9441954)
Keep in mind......from 2009.

True, but that's a few seasons, not a decade or anything.

You should send this in and ask them if their research team's formulas are bullshit, or if their current analyst predictions are bullshit. One way or the other, that's pretty blatant hypocrisy.

Dante84 02-26-2013 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by unlurking (Post 9441967)
True, but that's a few seasons, not a decade or anything.

You should send this in and ask them if their research team's formulas are bullshit, or if their current analyst predictions are bullshit. One way or the other, that's pretty blatant hypocrisy.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/mailbag/_/id/21413

Hootie 02-26-2013 04:16 PM

anybody who puts Flacco in the top 10 is CRAZY

he had a postseason of a lifetime...he also got a 1% on par with the Music City Miracle to have said postseason

PERHAPS NEXT YEAR if he parlays this Super Bowl into an actual regular season where he doesn't have 4 Tom Brady games, 4 Matt Schaub games, 2 Andy Dalton games and 6 Mark Sanchez games I'll be willing to reconsider.

As of right now, Flacco is who he is...a SUPREMELY talented INCONSISTENT QB who sometimes looks like the best in the league but often looks like Mark Sanchez as well.

He is the most confusing QB I've ever watched in my life. Maybe it really was Cam Cameron holding him back...I don't know.

but there is no way that, because of one Rahim Moore I'd take Joe Flacco over:

Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Drew Brees
Colin Kaepernick
Russel Wilson
Andrew Luck
RGIII
Matt Ryan
Ben Roethlisberger
Cam Newton (I admit I appear to be higher on him than most)

but again...I'm not ruling out this Super Bowl elevating Flacco to 'swagger mode' where he finally stops with the inconsistency and becomes a true franchise QB.

Until then, no way. He still has something to prove in my eyes.


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