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Fansy the Famous Bard 06-26-2017 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 12931911)
Thanks. I do wonder if there is a way to adjust or improve the metric ... perhaps by excluding outliers or capping the "credit" you can get for a single win. A blowout cap... capping it at 5-7 runs would probably adjust the stat a little more realistically.

The statistic will always skew towards teams with high-powered offenses because those will do more damage against the types of pitchers used in blowouts, but a run cap might make it more realistic.


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That's an interesting idea... "Adjusted Run Differential" I'm surprised something like that hasn't caught on yet. Duncan, here's your chance for some glory! Reach out to the baseball gods and make it happen.

duncan_idaho 06-26-2017 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fahrenheit (Post 12931913)
That's an interesting idea... "Adjusted Run Differential" I'm surprised something like that hasn't caught on yet. Duncan, here's your chance for some glory! Reach out to the baseball gods and make it happen.



I'll mess with something at some point this week. Then go back and apply it to teams that have been much better than RD would suggest (13-15 Royals, 2012 Orioles, 2011 or 2012 Dbacks, etc).


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kgrund 06-26-2017 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 12931873)
Also: this weekend series great example of why I always take run differential with a grain of salt.

The Royals won the series 2-1 but were -4 in run differential. Run differential hard cores - often stats-first and only guys - would tell you posting a .667 winning percentage with a -4 RD is luck.

Does anyone think the Royals were actually outperformed in that series?

I'll look up the total RD for May and June at some point today. I believe it will be negative for KC despite a record that is 10 games over .500 in that span.

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I do think they were outplayed by the Jays during the series. We were lucky to win Friday, won a close one Saturday, and got beat decisively on Sunday.

TomBarndtsTwin 06-26-2017 08:21 AM

Whether or not the Royals were 'lucky', you could debate it either way.

But what has always baffled me with regards to mainstream sports media, 'analytics experts' and most fans is this idea that runs scored in the 1st through 6th innings are somehow more 'valuable' and indicative of a teams strength than runs scored in the 7th, 8th and 9th? I heard about this repeatedly all through the World Series against the Mets.

Yes, the Royals were a good 'scrappy' team and had a great bullpen BUT the Mets had the lead late in most of those games and they really blew that series.

Am I missing something here? Was a baseball game not designed to go 9 innings? Since when did we decide it was okay to punish a team for being clutch in late inning big game pressure situations? Is it just because it's the aww shucks midwestern based Kansas City Royals? My guess is that has something to with it because god knows if the Yankees ever won a World Series using the formula that the Royals did, the media and everyone would be proclaiming them the greatest 'clutch' team in the history of Major League Baseball.

Fansy the Famous Bard 06-26-2017 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 12931950)
Whether or not the Royals were 'lucky', you could debate it either way.

But what has always baffled me with regards to mainstream sports media, 'analytics experts' and most fans is this idea that runs scored in the 1st through 6th innings are somehow more 'valuable' and indicative of a teams strength than runs scored in the 7th, 8th and 9th? I heard about this repeatedly all through the World Series against the Mets.

Yes, the Royals were a good 'scrappy' team and had a great bullpen BUT the Mets had the lead late in most of those games and they really blew that series.

Am I missing something here? Was a baseball game not designed to go 9 innings? Since when did we decide it was okay to punish a team for being clutch in late inning big game pressure situations? Is it just because it's the aww shucks midwestern based Kansas City Royals? My guess is that has something to with it because god knows if the Yankees ever won a World Series using the formula that the Royals did, the media and everyone would be proclaiming them the greatest 'clutch' team in the history of Major League Baseball.

I really wasn't agreeing with you until that last sentence. I was thinking that naturally the human psyche watches a game for say.. 3 hours... 2 and a half of that a team leads and basically outplays the other.. .then the last half hour of it the other team wins it. In your mind it feels like the better team didn't win. And you're right it's a whole game with 1 winner and 1 loser, regardless of how it got there. But the human element brings us to that measurement of "the better team".

Then that last statement in bold. I think about that a bit deeper, and you're dead on.. which makes me think that there's just no easy answer.

penbrook 06-26-2017 11:09 AM

Moose is 400,000 votes away from 1st in all star voting. People need to vote! Merrifield has moved into 4th place but he isn't getting past Altuve

BWillie 06-26-2017 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 12931873)
Also: this weekend series great example of why I always take run differential with a grain of salt.

The Royals won the series 2-1 but were -4 in run differential. Run differential hard cores - often stats-first and only guys - would tell you posting a .667 winning percentage with a -4 RD is luck.

Does anyone think the Royals were actually outperformed in that series?

I'll look up the total RD for May and June at some point today. I believe it will be negative for KC despite a record that is 10 games over .500 in that span.

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I agree, run differential is not a great way to judge a team. All innings are not created equal. Chris Young coming out to pitch in a 5-0 game and lets up 6 runs, that game was already given up on. I feel like alot of those teams with high run differential have the high walk, high hr guys who feast upon bad pitchers. And they don't get to face those pitchers in the post season.

C3HIEF3S 06-26-2017 06:15 PM

No ball tonight, but we've got news.

The Royals have reinstated Brian Flynn from the 60-day DL, coming back from his epically-odious barn injury. Subsequently, he has been sent to Omaha for the time being. Additionally, Nate Karns has been transferred to the 60-day DL. Rustin Dodd reports via Twitter that he is eligible to return July 20th, so the move must be retroactive. But still, the Royals shouldn't be counting on his return before August. Everything coming out on Karns doesn't sound favorable.

Will be interesting to see how GMDM chooses to fill that void if the Strahm/Junis duo falters.

Chiefspants 06-26-2017 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S (Post 12932771)
No ball tonight, but we've got news.

The Royals have reinstated Brian Flynn from the 60-day DL, coming back from his epically-odious barn injury. Subsequently, he has been sent to Omaha for the time being. Additionally, Nate Karns has been transferred to the 60-day DL. Rustin Dodd reports via Twitter that he is eligible to return July 20th, so the move must be retroactive. But still, the Royals shouldn't be counting on his return before August. Everything coming out on Karns doesn't sound favorable.

Will be interesting to see how GMDM chooses to fill that void if the Strahm/Junis duo falters.

Karns current trajectory reminds me of Vargas' in 2015.

"It's not the UCL." "We're very sure it's not the UCL." "Okay, we're positive it's not the UCL"

2 months later.

"It's the UCL"

Prison Bitch 06-26-2017 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants (Post 12932774)
Karns current trajectory reminds me of Vargas' in 2015.

"It's not the UCL." "We're very sure it's not the UCL." "Okay, we're positive it's not the UCL"

2 months later.

"It's the UCL"

Pretty sure this is what's happening


Sad!

C3HIEF3S 06-26-2017 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants (Post 12932774)
Karns current trajectory reminds me of Vargas' in 2015.

"It's not the UCL." "We're very sure it's not the UCL." "Okay, we're positive it's not the UCL"

2 months later.

"It's the UCL"

Man, Vargas' injury was straight up depressing. After two DL-stints no less. All of that time just to come back and blow it out completely.

Karns has had a major injury history, of many different body parts. He's served DL-time, on separate occasions, for his back, shoulder, forearm and now his elbow. Last year he was placed on the 15-day DL in July for his back, just for it to linger.. and linger.. and linger, in what would eventually lead to him being sent to the 60-day and done for the year.

C3HIEF3S 06-26-2017 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants (Post 12932774)
Karns current trajectory reminds me of Vargas' in 2015.

"It's not the UCL." "We're very sure it's not the UCL." "Okay, we're positive it's not the UCL"

2 months later.

<iframe src='http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=278118583&topic_id=6479266&width=400&height=224&property=mlb' width='400' height='224' frameborder='0'>Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe>

"It's the UCL"

Added theatrics, makes me cringe.

Jerok 06-26-2017 06:40 PM

Both Twins and Indians losing currently.

Also, I didn't realize Boston had both David Price and Chris Sale. Seems like if we face them in the playoffs we'll we'll induce the usual Price meltdown and classic Hosmer leftie vs Chris Sale home run.

Chiefspants 06-26-2017 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S (Post 12932782)
Added theatrics, makes me cringe.

That was even more painful to watch than I remembered.

It does make my mind hypothesize how 2015 may have been different with a healthy Vargas. Yordano Ventura took a straight U-turn from Omaha after this moment and pitched like a straight up Ace in the second half of 2015. Only 2 games separated us from having home field advantage to playing on the road to start the ALCS against the Jays. Perhaps we still take them down, but if we played up to four games in that little league sandbox, I'm honestly not sure.

I also was also more concerned about the Rangers in the 2015 playoffs than the Jays. With their lefty starters in a short series, our season could have theoretically ended in Arlington.

Speaking of 2015, that video reminded me what an unsung hero Joe flippin' Blanton was to our season. Amazing that a team that relied on over 400 combined regular season and playoff innings from Edinson Volquez, Chris Young and Joe Blanton would go the distance, but here we are.

lewdog 06-26-2017 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants (Post 12932795)

Speaking of 2015, that video reminded me what an unsung hero Joe flippin' Blanton was to our season. Amazing that a team that relied on over 400 combined regular season and playoff innings from Edinson Volquez, Chris Young and Joe Blanton would go the distance, but here we are.

Means nothing if your run differential is shit, bud.

/Canadians.


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