Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 13526419)

Realistically?

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect Mahomes to top 5,000 passing yards.

In his first start, playing with scrubs against one of the best pass D's in the NFL, he put up 284 yards. Assuming that is an average game for him, he is already at 4,544 yards for the season. With scrubs. Against a good pass D.

To top 5,000 yards in a 16 game season, he would have to average 312 passing yards per game.

The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you believe that Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt can contribute another 28 yards per game, on average, against typically lesser defenses.

Another way to think about it: Do you think that Mahomes, with those tools, can average about 26 passing yards per possession over the course of a season? Considering that he (so far) averages 8.11 yards per attempt, I think that over the course of a season, he can hit that mark with relative ease.

Originally Posted by Shag (Post 13526429)

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale (Post 13526435)

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 13526440)

13 QBs last year threw for over 3,500 yards. How many of those QBs had thetools that Mahomes will have at his disposal?

To say that Mahomes will throw for 3,500 yards is to say that he is, at best, a very, very average QB.....

Originally Posted by AssEaterChief (Post 13526450)

Or....a very very young QB who is managed very well by his experienced head coach.

I think most teams are going to force the Chiefs to run the ball....and Andy will take advantage of that.

Smart head coaches generally don't have their super young QB throwing the ball 35+ times a game.

Marino, Luck, and Manning are some of the few exceptions over the last 30 years...

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 13526462)

You don't think Mahomes will put up an average of 59 more passing yards per game than Alex Smith?

Watkins averages 15.9 yds/catch
Hill averages 15.8
Kelce averages 12.7
Hunt averages 8.7

The Chiefs brass traded away Smith because they thought they could get more output from Mahomes; they doubled down on that bet by giving Watkins a big contract.

Its not just Mahomes; it is the weapons he has at his disposal. I think the Chiefs probably have the best set of offensive skill position players in the NFL.

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 13526470)

Considering that across the NFL, teams have an average of 11.5 possessions per game, you're telling me that it is unrealistic to think that Mahomes will average 5 passing yards more per possession than Alex Smith?

I was (am) a big fan of Alex Smith, but the big difference between Mahomes and Smith is that Mahomes throws the ball *downfield*; he isn't looking for the dump-off, he is looking for the first down and more each and every time.

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale (Post 13526719)

You ****ing idiot, it's a fact that the LB's played almost every snap of that game but the DL and DB's didn't. That's reality. It has nothing to do with 'knowmo' or bronco fans. Jesus. Look up the snap counts and stop being offended by reality. Nobody is saying Mahomes was shit or that nothing he did mattered. I'm saying you can't just say "Well, now that he's had one start in week 17 against a 5-10 team that sat most of it's defensive starters in a meaningless game we can average that production out across his whole career!"

It's reeruned to average out 1 game against a 5-10 team playing a bunch of back ups in week 17. Do you disagree, or are you just being an asshole?

The fact that it was mostly Mahomes and back ups vs. Bronco back up DB's and DL only reinforces the point I"m making. The dynamics will be entirely different.

Christ this board is going full homer if I'm being called out for saying it probably isn't realistic to average a rookie's first start across an entire season (and adding selected stats on a whim). Will he also throw 0 TD's and 16 INT's? C'mon. I'm 100% on the kid's wagon, but I"m not going to predict a 5K 50 TD season. Sorry for being 'pessimistic'.

Originally Posted by AssEaterChief (Post 13526427)

ROFL

I have a bad feeling this thread is going to get bumped next January for all the wrong reasons...

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 13998542)

:titus:

Originally Posted by BossChief (Post 13526874)

My honest appraisal of his floor if the offense stays healthy and doesn’t lose any major parts.

4000 yards passing
400 rushing 5tds
30 td passing
13 int

Huge playoff performances.

Originally Posted by Detoxing (Post 13526900)

Guys, don't be afraid to have high expectations.

You have every reason to expect a lot. Everything HE has shown us up to this point warrants those expectations. Everything the Chiefs have said and done warrant those expectations.

If you are wrong in your bold prediction, know that you will be in good company.

Originally Posted by BossChief (Post 13527008)

My post was his floor, IMO.

If everyone stays healthy and focused, he has a chance to get 5000 total yards and 40 tds, possibly more.

We have the best skill position guys in the nfl and Mahomes is a special talent.

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare (Post 13526301)

anything over 3600 yards and under 20 INTs I would consider a success statistically.

Originally Posted by jjchieffan (Post 13526324)

What I want is 4000 yards, 30 TD's 12 Int. What I realistically expect is 3200 yards 25 TD's 15 Int. That would be a disappointment to a lot of us. But I think that it would be good for a first year starter.

Originally Posted by RustShack (Post 13526345)

5,000 yards.

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 13998542)

:titus:

Originally Posted by Buckweath (Post 13526349)

Realistic? 3800 yards, 25 TDs and 14 INTs.

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin (Post 13526352)

This is right. He only needs 250 yards a game to get to 4000. He had 287 in his debut against a pretty good defense. I expect at least 4000 and I think we will consider 250 as a poor game for him.



I expect 4500 , 27 TDs and 12 ints.



and guess what. he gets to play with the 1's now. Kelce, Hill and Watkins.

Originally Posted by BryanBusby (Post 13526480)

The brakes do need to be pumped a bit. He'll be elite in time, but probably not 2018.

I expect 4k yards, 26 TD/14 INT year one. Chiefs go 8-8. His first year will be pretty similar to Aaron's.

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare (Post 13526503)

lead the offense to average 26 points or over would be a successful output too

Originally Posted by jaa1025 (Post 13526643)

4000-4200 yards, 30+ TD, 15- INT, 60% completion.



Reasons.

--Ultra talented, smart, reportedly a good grasp for the offense and leader.

--Weapons galore. Possibly the best collection of skill position talent in the NFL.

--Reid will make sure he succeeds.

--Defense is average at best. Key injuries, like Berry, and the flood gates will open again. There will be a lot of shootouts.

Originally Posted by philfree (Post 13526776)

Better than Alex Smith's best year.

Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 13526877)

My expectation is that Chiefs football will be fun again!

Patrick Mahomes worst year will still be better than Alex Smith's best year.