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MagicHef 02-22-2013 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 9424902)
In the last 20 years, 38% of QBs taken in the top 5 have had an overall winning record with the team that drafted them. For OTs, it's 21%.

Here's all the positions:

LB 67%
CB 50%
QB 38%
RB 36%
OT 21%
DE 20%
DT 11%
WR 0%
S 0%
OG, OC (None drafted in top 5)

MagicHef 02-22-2013 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 9424924)
How did you calculate that (or where did you get it)?

I made a large spreadsheet of all round 1 picks over the last 20 years, and looked at each player's time with their original team. 624 players.

htismaqe 02-22-2013 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 9424937)
Here's all the positions:

LB 67%
CB 50%
QB 38%
RB 36%
OT 21%
DE 20%
DT 11%
WR 0%
S 0%
OG, OC (None drafted in top 5)

This really is the end of the discussion. It all stops right here.

We should draft an outside passrusher, Milliner, or a QB. Period.

oldandslow 02-22-2013 09:35 AM

:clap:
Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 9424937)
Here's all the positions:

LB 67%
CB 50%
QB 38%
RB 36%
OT 21%
DE 20%
DT 11%
WR 0%
S 0%
OG, OC (None drafted in top 5)

You have done more research than every writer at the KC star and most "draft gurus." Major Kudos.

UK_Chief 02-22-2013 09:37 AM

Maybe mail that list to J. Dorsey, 1 Arrowhead Drive?

Great stats.

patteeu 02-22-2013 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 9424942)
I made a large spreadsheet of all round 1 picks over the last 20 years, and looked at each player's time with their original team. 624 players.

You'd better check your work then, because you got it wrong.

MagicHef 02-22-2013 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 9424973)
You'd better check your work then, because you got it wrong.

Yep, just realized I missed AJ Green. WR should be 10%.

Unless you meant something else?

patteeu 02-22-2013 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 9425000)
Yep, just realized I missed AJ Green. WR should be 10%.

Unless you meant something else?

The quarterbacks were easy to check so I checked them and your number is incorrect. The technically correct number is 46% (12/26). If you give credit to Eli Manning and Philip Rivers as if they were drafted by NYG and San Diego respectively, the number is 54% (14/26).

So I'm not sure what your spreadsheet is doing, but I don't have confidence in your results.

MagicHef 02-22-2013 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 9425042)
The quarterbacks were easy to check so I checked them and your number is incorrect. The technically correct number is 46% (12/26). If you give credit to Eli Manning and Philip Rivers as if they were drafted by NYG and San Diego respectively, the number is 54% (14/26).

So I'm not sure what your spreadsheet is doing, but I don't have confidence in your results.

Why don't you list the QBs that had overall winning records with their original teams? Yes, I am counting Eli and Rivers.

patteeu 02-22-2013 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 9424934)
There's a bunch more.

Bryant McKinnie is playing better but he's on his 2nd team. Eugene Monroe has been underwhelming. Michael Oher, who some considered one of the best LT prospects in years, has moved back and forth from left to right tackle. Jake Long is gonna hit the open market.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say drafting an OT #1 overall is WAY RISKIER than drafting a QB.

That's a pretty shaky limb.

patteeu 02-22-2013 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef (Post 9425048)
Why don't you list the QBs that had overall winning records with their original teams? Yes, I am counting Eli and Rivers.

Drew Bledsoe 63-60
Kerry Collins 22-20
Steve McNair 76-55
Peyton Manning 141-67
Donovan McNabb 92-49-1
Mike Vick 38-28-1
Philip Rivers 70-42
Eli Manning 78-57
Alex Smith 38-36-1
Vince Young 31-19
Matt Ryan 56-22
Mark Sanchez 33-29
Robert Griffin III 9-6
Andrew Luck 11-5

Here are the guys with losing records:

Rick Mirer 20-31
Heath Shuler 4-9
Ryan Leaf 4-14
Tim Couch 22-37
Akili Smith 3-14
Joey Harrington 18-37
David Carr 22-53
Carson Palmer 46-51
JaMarcus Russell 7-18
Matt Stafford 17-28
Sam Bradford 15-26-1
Cam Newton 13-19

Rams Fan 02-22-2013 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 9424891)
And 14 of the last 15 1st round QBs are starters. The only non-starter is Tim ****ing Tebow.

EDIT: Tim Tebow is the only non-starter. I'm not gonna waste my time looking at offensive tackles but I can tell you that at least one of them (Jason Smith) has now been cut by TWO TEAMS.

It's 1 team actually, but I get your point.

htismaqe 02-22-2013 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rams Fan (Post 9425069)
It's 1 team actually, but I get your point.

True, the Rams actually got something for him in a trade. ROFL at the Jets.

OnTheWarpath15 02-22-2013 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 9425042)
The quarterbacks were easy to check so I checked them and your number is incorrect. The technically correct number is 46% (12/26). If you give credit to Eli Manning and Philip Rivers as if they were drafted by NYG and San Diego respectively, the number is 54% (14/26).

So I'm not sure what your spreadsheet is doing, but I don't have confidence in your results.

Double checking as well.

I got 14/26 as well. The 14 being:

Luck
Griffin
Sanchez
Ryan
V. Young
A. Smith
Eli Manning
Rivers
Vick
NcNabb
Peyton Manning
McNair
Collins
Bledsoe

EDIT: You posted this while I was typing.

MagicHef 02-22-2013 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu (Post 9425063)
Drew Bledsoe 63-60
Kerry Collins 22-20
Steve McNair 76-55
Peyton Manning 141-67
Donovan McNabb 92-49-1
Mike Vick 38-28-1
Philip Rivers 70-42
Eli Manning 78-57
Alex Smith 38-36-1
Vince Young 31-19
Matt Ryan 56-22
Mark Sanchez 33-29
Robert Griffin III 9-6
Andrew Luck 11-5

Here are the guys with losing records:

Rick Mirer 20-31
Heath Shuler 4-9
Ryan Leaf 4-14
Tim Couch 22-37
Akili Smith 3-14
Joey Harrington 18-37
David Carr 22-53
Carson Palmer 46-51
JaMarcus Russell 7-18
Matt Stafford 17-28
Sam Bradford 15-26-1
Cam Newton 13-19

The Panthers were 30-34 when Collins was on the team, Falcons were 47-48-1 with Vick, 49ers were 61-66-1 with Smith. You probably have starts, while I'm going by team record while they were on the roster, because starts don't work so well to compare guys like DTs.


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