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-   -   NFL Draft I'm now more sure than ever that Geno's going #1 overall. (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=271969)

RealSNR 04-11-2013 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By (Post 9578526)
Where did I say there was no luck involved? At some level, every pick is lucky. The Colts are lucky they drafted #1 in the years of Manning and Luck. The Chiefs aren't lucky in that way.

What I said was that saying they were lucky is stupid, specifically because

So what about the Packers drafting a QB in the first round with the full intention of having him take over for Favre, sitting him on the bench for three years, and purposefully throwing Favre into the dumpster even though he was still playing pretty good football? Is that the same amount of luck that went into the Tom Brady pick at 199th overall?

RealSNR 04-11-2013 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By (Post 9578535)
It's not a false equivalence and, again, you're smart enough to know that. You are also smart enough to know that you find SB winning QBs outside the first round just about as often as you find them inside the first round. The data backs that up.

If it was all about being taken #1, or even taken in the first round, Alex Smith would still be in SF.

Do you know what a false equivalence is?

And the data DOESN'T back that up. It only looks that way because there are a lot more QBs that get drafted in six rounds than just the one. When you see all these Tony Romos, Tom Bradys, and Russell Wilsons and say, "HA! See? You don't need to draft a QB in the first round to have a super star!" that's true, yes. It's also far more unlikely given the wide field of QBs that get drafted in rounds 2-7.

Exoter175 04-11-2013 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9578530)
It's illogical because it spits in the face of the fact that great QBs make up such a ****ing huge portion of the Super Bowl Winning probability pie.

The reason why 30 years of failure/30 years of no 1st round QB works is because the first round TENDS TO BE where these guys are to be found. At the very least, drafting a QB in the first round shows that the team is very conscious of how important the QB position is.

If there were the same success rate for teams that vacate all of their draft picks and then win the Super Bowl, MAYBE you'd have an argument.

Until we see some data on that, then yes, it absolutely is a false equivalence.

Where exactly does it show that my statement spits in the face of anything?

All it does is point out the fact that not picking a QB #1 doesn't throw every pick away. That great teams are still built through the draft regardless of whether or not they drafted a QB to get there.

For as many times as you can come up with a 1st round pick getting a team to the playoffs, I'll show you just as many 1st round picks who didn't get to the playoffs.

Furthermore, I'll show you QB's winning in the playoffs that weren't 1st round picks.

You don't NEED a first round QB to make it to the playoffs. You don't NEED a first round QB to win in the playoffs, and you don't NEED a first round QB to win a super bowl.

Those statements aren't illogical, what is illogical, however, is suggesting you DO need a first round QB to get anywhere in this league.

RealSNR 04-11-2013 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exoter175 (Post 9578647)
Where exactly does it show that my statement spits in the face of anything?

All it does is point out the fact that not picking a QB #1 doesn't throw every pick away. That great teams are still built through the draft regardless of whether or not they drafted a QB to get there.

For as many times as you can come up with a 1st round pick getting a team to the playoffs, I'll show you just as many 1st round picks who didn't get to the playoffs.

Furthermore, I'll show you QB's winning in the playoffs that weren't 1st round picks.

You don't NEED a first round QB to make it to the playoffs. You don't NEED a first round QB to win in the playoffs, and you don't NEED a first round QB to win a super bowl.

Those statements aren't illogical, what is illogical, however, is suggesting you DO need a first round QB to get anywhere in this league.

The illogical statement was, "Why is it so important to draft a QB just because it hasn't been done in 30 years? The team also hasn't vacated all of its draft picks in 30 years, maybe it should try doing that."

SAUTO 04-11-2013 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exoter175 (Post 9578456)
What is more likely? The Chiefs trading the #1 pick to a division rival? Or the Raiders trading up to #2 or selecting Geno with the #3, KNOWING that if we stay in the #1 spot, we won't waste the pick on Geno?

Why would you call it a waste?
Posted via Mobile Device

Exoter175 04-11-2013 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9578664)
The illogical statement was, "Why is it so important to draft a QB just because it hasn't been done in 30 years? The team also hasn't vacated all of its draft picks in 30 years, maybe it should try doing that."

Quote it, I don't believe you can.

RealSNR 04-11-2013 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exoter175 (Post 9578671)
Quote it, I don't believe you can.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...&postcount=151

To which you said...


Quote:

Originally Posted by Exoter175 (Post 9578459)
This post made my day, because he really hits on a point most Chiefs fans are too drowned in koolaid to understand.


Exoter175 04-11-2013 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO (Post 9578667)
Why would you call it a waste?
Posted via Mobile Device

Because we won't be spending a pick on Geno Smith period. That's why.

Why spend a pick on a QB who's no better than your 2nd and 3rd string guys, after you just gave up two 2nd's for a starting QB you think could be the last piece to your playoff puzzle, when you can sign a tackle, guard, Wide Receiver, or whatever, that instantly makes your team better.

Drafting Geno #1 overall doesn't make us immediately better. You know what does?

Joeckel, Warmack, Lotuleilei, Fisher, Milliner, etc.

RealSNR 04-11-2013 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exoter175 (Post 9578681)
Because we won't be spending a pick on Geno Smith period. That's why.

Why spend a pick on a QB who's no better than your 2nd and 3rd string guys, after you just gave up two 2nd's for a starting QB you think could be the last piece to your playoff puzzle, when you can sign a tackle, guard, Wide Receiver, or whatever, that instantly makes your team better.

Drafting Geno #1 overall doesn't make us immediately better. You know what does?

Joeckel, Warmack, Lotuleilei, Fisher, Milliner, etc.

Nothing makes us immediately better except MAYBE a pass rusher. Our 1.1 pick is just not going to have much of an opportunity to make a difference in his rookie year. It's that ****ing simple.

Unless you're advocating drafting an ILB, G, C, or RB2 at 1.1

May as well take a ****ing QB

penbrook 04-11-2013 04:57 PM

Safety Sherrod Martin from the Panthers is visiting the Chiefs today and tommorow. Also are bringing in a unknown player from defensive side tommorow.

Exoter175 04-11-2013 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9578676)

You didn't quote it.

The statement he made was putting the shoe on the other foot and pointing out how stupid your statement was using irony as a tool for comparison.

You are also making several assumptions in your statement for what he "meant" by that statement, and not actually what he "said".

So its safe to say you don't understand why I said that statement made my day.

Work on that whole comprehension thing.

RealSNR 04-11-2013 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exoter175 (Post 9578697)
You didn't quote it.

The statement he made was putting the shoe on the other foot and pointing out how stupid your statement was using irony as a tool for comparison.

It was a ****ing fallacy, you moron. For reasons I've already ****ing explained.

A: Drafting a QB in the first round is the most likely way to find a franchise starter. We haven't done so in 30 years. Maybe we should change that.
B: You also haven't vacated all your draft picks. Do you want to change to that strategy?

That's what he ****ing said, right? That's a fallacy. It's the exact same thing as:

A: All my friends built successful football teams by drafting a QB in the first round.
B: If all your friends jumped off a bridge, would you do it too?

Exoter175 04-11-2013 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9578690)
Nothing makes us immediately better except MAYBE a pass rusher. Our 1.1 pick is just not going to have much of an opportunity to make a difference in his rookie year. It's that ****ing simple.

Unless you're advocating drafting an ILB, G, C, or RB2 at 1.1

May as well take a ****ing QB

God, you couldn't be more wrong.

In our style of a 3-4, we don't need another pass rusher, we have plenty. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston really are all the pass rushers we need. DE's in our style of a 3-4 are less about pass rushing technique and more about a bull rush/run stopping approach. So saying we need a pass rusher, or that the only thing that could make this team better is a pass rusher, is stupid. That just adds depth.

We could immediately use:

1. RT
2. LG
3. Center

Positions that Joeckel, Fisher, and/or Warmack could fill immediately. And saying the 1.1 isn't going to make a difference in his rookie year is the most idiotic thing I've heard in quite a long time, our 1.1 will be an immediate starter on this team. If that isn't "making a difference" I don't know what is.

We could also immediately use:

1. Wide Receiver
2. Inside Linebacker
3. Cornerback

Guys like Patterson, Austin, Te'o, Milliner, Rhodes, and Ogletree.


If we could ask for a best case scenario, its going to be trading back with the Bills, Jets, or whomever into the 8-17 range, and picking up an extra pick or two.

Drafting Geno smith would be a major setback to this regime.

O.city 04-11-2013 05:07 PM

For someone who says you don't NEED a first round QB to be succesful, it's a little ironic that same person says you need to spend the first overall pick on a LG or C, or for that matter a CB when we just signed 2 in free agency to start, or a 34 ILB.

RealSNR 04-11-2013 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exoter175 (Post 9578720)
God, you couldn't be more wrong.

In our style of a 3-4, we don't need another pass rusher, we have plenty. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston really are all the pass rushers we need. DE's in our style of a 3-4 are less about pass rushing technique and more about a bull rush/run stopping approach. So saying we need a pass rusher, or that the only thing that could make this team better is a pass rusher, is stupid. That just adds depth.

We could immediately use:

1. RT
2. LG
3. Center

Positions that Joeckel, Fisher, and/or Warmack could fill immediately. And saying the 1.1 isn't going to make a difference in his rookie year is the most idiotic thing I've heard in quite a long time, our 1.1 will be an immediate starter on this team. If that isn't "making a difference" I don't know what is.

We could also immediately use:

1. Wide Receiver
2. Inside Linebacker
3. Cornerback

Guys like Patterson, Austin, Te'o, Milliner, Rhodes, and Ogletree.


If we could ask for a best case scenario, its going to be trading back with the Bills, Jets, or whomever into the 8-17 range, and picking up an extra pick or two.

Drafting Geno smith would be a major setback to this regime.

You advocate drafting a RT, LG, C, WR, ILB, or a CB at 1.1?

I'm just trying to make sure you're really this dumb. I want to get this right.


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