TINSTAAPP

Look at it this way, take the chance on the rock star...and he burns out...whats' the worst thing that can happen? Another 29 year playoff drought?


Being cautious hasn't resulted in winning or filling the ballpark. Take advantage of the high tide and try to keep it going.

Makes sense. Just wondering aloud.

As I said, I like Santana. He did well for us. I just hope we're able to invest something (prospects + cash) for offense.

Took me a while to really believe in it, but a couple years ago when our huge stable of stud pitching prospects started getting hurt or failing hard, I finally gave up and surrendered to the theory of TINSTAAPP.

The scouts should still do their job, and we should still draft and trade for arms, and give them a shot in KC wherever appropriate, but in the offseason the GM should pretty much assume they don't exist when he's trying to win in the next year or two.

So how would you guys like to upgrade our offense? Do we:

Make a trade for a guy like Gattis, Kemp, Upton, Hayward (the last two are FA's after 2015 so think about that.)

Sign a guy like Tomas, Cruz, Hunter (the former being very pricey but a high-risk/high-reward move)

Nonsense. Ventura, Duffy, Herrera, Holland and (probably) Finnegan are clear proof they exist.

On the contrary, being cautious is precisely how we won. DM took a long range view thru the draft and built a great farm system that made up the bulk of our 2014 roster, and stood pat at the trade deadlines. And he won big

As others have said... TINSTAPP

Plus, even if Guthrie walks and you've got two youngsters beating down the door to the rotation in 2016, you could always trade Jason Vargas. He'll have some value and is very reasonably priced.

Manaea
Best Case: He's up in September 2015.
More realistic case: He stalls a little at AA, spending the whole year there, and starts 2016 at Omaha.
Worst case: He goes the way of Mike Montgomery (Highly unlikely, IMO, due to Manaea's advanced secondary pitches)

Finnegan
Best case: Finnegan spends two months stretching himself out in the minors (one at AA and one at AAA) and is so dominant/dazzling, the Royals open a rotation spot for him in June
More realistic case: Finnegan progresses nicely but takes most of 2015 to make it to Omaha, and is again a September call-up/weapon out of the pen
Worst case: Finnegan can't handle starting and ends up being a quality, high-leverage reliever

Zimmer
Best case: Zimmer finally stays healthy and zips through the minor leagues by July. He gets called up and contributes to the MLB squad in some way during the season (likely is limited to 100-110 innings next year)
More realistic case: Zimmer takes time to build his arm strength back up and spends most of the year in AA, before a last-month promotion to Omaha. He's called up to pitch out of the Royals pen in September.
Worst case: Zimmer continues to channel his inner JD Drew and can't stay healthy, taking him out of the team's plans AGAIN

Almonte
Best case: Succeeds at AA in 2015, continuing to develop his secondary pitches, and finds another tick on his fastball (making his excellent changeup play up even more).
More realistic case: Same as best case, except without an increase in FB velo.
Worst case:Struggles at AA, and shows he has truly lost his feel for his changeup (rather than just having it 'taken away' at High-A for development purposes).

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but it's not like the Royals have a bunch of guys with nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. The safest bet for competing in 2015 is to add another SP via trade or FA. Counting on the farm to supply that in 2015 is a bit premature.

Yeah. It's fun to watch them develop, and I enjoy the minor league aspect. But unless they've proven they can do the job at AAA before the offseason, it's hard to count on a guy for much the following season (think of what a disaster it would have been if KC had counted on Kyle Zimmer rather than signing Vargas).

I'm not Soren Petro, so I realize that trading for Jason Heyward would be very stupid for a team like KC that can't afford to sign him long-term.

Signing Tomas is probably the highest upside move KC could make. If he "hits," he could be a .270/30/.500 SLG guy from Day 1, and that makes KC much, much better.

Hunter is a safer bet, especially if the plan is to use him as a DH most of the time. It's not flashy, and it has some risk (what if he falls off the table?). But if it's a one-year deal, the risk is lessened.

Cruz is not an option.

Upton is the same type of thing as Heyward... would cost a ton in prospects and have no chance to re-sign him.

Gattis is intriguing, but it sounds like the price is high and Atlanta doesn't really want to move him.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>2day visited Mihara Hiroshima where my mother&#39;s family lives.1st time meeting them,overwhelmed w/gratitude <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Geneology?src=hash">#Geneology</a> <a href="http://t.co/97uA9BOfyZ">pic.twitter.com/97uA9BOfyZ</a></p>&mdash; Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRealJGuts/status/532532797949243393">November 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>A group of KC officials have left the GM Meetings for org meetings in the Dominican Republic, where they could see Yasmani Tomas work out.</p>&mdash; Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCulloughStar/status/532639208930701312">November 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The club scouted Tomas extensively, but quietly, leading up to this winter. He could command larger than Castillo’s $72.5M deal w/ Boston.</p>&mdash; Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCulloughStar/status/532639365155938304">November 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Maybe we get outbid, but if we're actually flying guys down to the Dominican for workouts, then we've got to be in the running. If Tomas's agent had given us a number that was far higher than we liked, we wouldn't bother.

My thoughts exactly. I'm really encouraged by that information. Signing him would be huge. Just huge.

Yeah, still a longshot, but I like that we're doing our work on him and seeing if something works. The one advantage I can think of is that we're likely to give him more of a AAV than other clubs, who seem to want more years. I'm reading Tomas' camp wants a shorter deal (like 4-5 years) than what some of the big clubs are talking about, who want to lock him into a longer deal.

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Looked like a Bruce Chen fatball