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-   -   Football 538 Calls Tom Brady the 43rd Clutchest Postseason QB (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=289920)

Amnorix 01-13-2015 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobBlake (Post 11267460)
I agree. Let us also take into consideration of longevity.. brady still looks like he can go another 3-4 years


Yeah. It's interesting, actually. Manning is only about 18 months older than Brady, but because he came into the league younger and started earlier, he has played WAAY more games. 256 to Brady's 209. That 47 game difference is just one shy of three full years.

It will be interesting to see how much longer both of them play. If the second half of the season si where Manning is now, physically, then he ought to retire. Brady, meanwhile, doesn't look all that bad for his advanced years. There was a LONG article on his unusual workout routine designed in part to extend his career.

Fitness nuts might find it interesting.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/12/10/tom...ts-age-fitness

Baby Lee 01-13-2015 03:33 PM

This whole discussion is missing a heaping bowl of regular season to playoff falloff.

Manning has plenty of record breaking seasons followed by squaddush.

Brady has plenty of pitched regular season battles followed by nutting up to the SB.

MagicHef 01-13-2015 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix (Post 11267423)
So, first, you can post whatever you like, but others can create new arguments. The new argument I am introducing is that the same numbers YOU cite say Manning has UNDERperformed expected wins in the playoffs, while Brady has OUTperformed expected wins.

You havent' responded, presumably because you can't.

I responded, but only once, so I understand if you didn't see it.

lcarus 01-13-2015 03:35 PM

They're 2 all-time great QBs. You guys are just splitting hairs really.

Dave Lane 01-13-2015 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger (Post 11267051)
Because this needed a second thread?

Second? Shit I wish it was just the second. He's going Bobtard stupid and shitting on every thread.

jspchief 01-13-2015 03:53 PM

Here's the thing Hootie; clutch is a SUBJECTIVE term based on OPINION. It's a team game. These are performances spread over various years, against uncommon opponents, with varying teammates, varying weather conditions, varying officiating crews, etc etc.

There aren't going to be stats that prove or disprove this. People may use stats to try and support their argument, but they will never be definitive.

At the end of the day, you hold an opinion that very few people agree with. It's such an uncommon opinion, you're very unlikely to change anyone's opinion. So it's time to let it go.

Hootie 01-13-2015 04:03 PM

Sanchez isn't really ranked #9 on the list we're referencing that Brady is #6 on, for the record.

He's #9 on the Brady is #43 list.

Hootie 01-13-2015 04:13 PM

So ...


A replacement level QB + 52 Patriots in 26 postseason games (they excluded the Bledsoe game) would have won 12.6 games and lost 13.4 games.

A replacement level QB + 52 Colts or 52 Broncos in 24 postseason games would have won 8 games and lost 16.

Anyone wanna tell me Brady doesn't have enough weapons? I'm still waiting for someone to explain this one to me.

Just Passin' By 01-13-2015 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267542)
So ...


A replacement level QB + 52 Patriots in 26 postseason games (they excluded the Bledsoe game) would have won 12.6 games and lost 13.4 games.

A replacement level QB + 52 Colts or 52 Broncos in 24 postseason games would have won 8 games and lost 16.

Anyone wanna tell me Brady doesn't have enough weapons? I'm still waiting for someone to explain this one to me.


If you don't buy the formula, the reported results are meaningless. That should have been easy enough for you to figure out. Even Silver understood that, and tweaked things.

Silver on that very list:

Quote:

But this is a somewhat ridiculous list. The top five consists of one great quarterback, Joe Montana, along with two pretty good ones (Eli Manning and Flacco). It also has Trent Dilfer and Jeff Hostetler. Meanwhile, Brady ranks just 43rd by this measure.

I love that you're ignoring the whole

Quote:

We can rerun the numbers for all 180 playoff quarterbacks, comparing each QB’s actual record against the simulated one achieved by replacement-level QBs against the same schedule. By this measure, Peyton Manning moves up to 28th on the postseason list; there’s only about a 10 percent chance that a replacement-level QB could have equalled or bettered his 11-13 record.
"Brady at 6, Manning way down at 28" part, though.

Hootie gotta Hootie.

Hootie 01-13-2015 04:42 PM

I haven't talked about the 'somewhat ridiculous list' one time.

I've talked about the 12.6 - 13.4 and the 8 - 16

Premise: Tom Brady has QB'd better teams than Peyton Manning. Thus, it's not strange he has more playoff wins than Peyton Manning.

The end.

Just Passin' By 01-13-2015 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267600)
I haven't talked about the 'somewhat ridiculous list' one time.

I've talked about the 12.6 - 13.4 and the 8 - 16

Premise: Tom Brady has QB'd better teams than Peyton Manning. Thus, it's not strange he has more playoff wins than Peyton Manning.

The end.

Reality: You used the "43rd clutchest postseason QB" as your title, and that's from that list,

Also reality: Even the cherry picked site you chose has Brady (#6) as better than Manning (#28), when adjusting for exactly what you're talking about.

In other words, dumbass, even if we were to buy into the formula, Brady > Manning.

And, in regards to the quality of said formulations, even with the tweaks, Silver still has Trent Dilfer in at #7.

But....

Hootie gotta .... well, you know.

KC native 01-13-2015 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267542)
So ...


A replacement level QB + 52 Patriots in 26 postseason games (they excluded the Bledsoe game) would have won 12.6 games and lost 13.4 games.

A replacement level QB + 52 Colts or 52 Broncos in 24 postseason games would have won 8 games and lost 16.

Anyone wanna tell me Brady doesn't have enough weapons? I'm still waiting for someone to explain this one to me.

Brady has had plenty of weapons for most of his time. There have been years (like last year) where the cupboard is pretty bare.

Baby Lee 01-13-2015 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0 (Post 11267600)
I haven't talked about the 'somewhat ridiculous list' one time.

I've talked about the 12.6 - 13.4 and the 8 - 16

Premise: Tom Brady has QB'd better teams than Peyton Manning. Thus, it's not strange he has more playoff wins than Peyton Manning.

The end.

Don't everyone hydroplane on hootie's rainslick of analysis.

jspchief 01-13-2015 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jspchief (Post 11267518)
Here's the thing Hootie; clutch is a SUBJECTIVE term based on OPINION. It's a team game. These are performances spread over various years, against uncommon opponents, with varying teammates, varying weather conditions, varying officiating crews, etc etc.

There aren't going to be stats that prove or disprove this. People may use stats to try and support their argument, but they will never be definitive.

At the end of the day, you hold an opinion that very few people agree with. It's such an uncommon opinion, you're very unlikely to change anyone's opinion. So it's time to let it go.

.

Just Passin' By 01-13-2015 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baby Lee (Post 11267618)
Don't everyone hydroplane on hootie's rainslick of analysis.

It's as if he wants to see just how stupid he can make himself look.


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